Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 10

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $60 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, Aug. 10 at Colonial Downs and Presque Isle Downs, along with a $57.60 ticket for Presque Isle’s $1,236 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby day, Aug. 31.
• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Colonial Downs and Presque Isle Downs.

Picks and plays

Colonial Downs, Race 2: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:13 p.m. ET)

#1 Capt. Candy (8-5) should be very tough to beat in this turf dash for Virginia-restricted juveniles.

The son of grass star Imagining crossed the wire first over this course and class level July 20, but was disqualified for drifting out and bumping the runner-up around the turn.

It was a solid effort from Capt. Candy, especially considering he suffered a troubled start. He’d previously set the pace in a five-furlong maiden special weight over the Delaware Park main track, so with a clean break Tuesday, Capt. Candy can graduate in his third start for trainer Anthony Pecoraro.

#4 Wish Me Home (7-2) and #7 Clouds of White (8-1) can battle for places in the exacta and trifecta.

$10 exacta: 1 with 4,7 ($20)
$5 trifecta: 1 with 4,7 with 4,7 ($10)
Total: $30

Colonial Downs, Race 4: $16,000 maiden claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:09 p.m. ET)

#4 Some Nights (9-2) hasn’t cracked the trifecta in eight starts, but she has faced much tougher maiden special weight and $30,000 maiden claiming company. Her efforts in sprints on turf haven’t been half bad, highlighted by a fifth-place finish (beaten just 2 1/4 lengths) in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Keeneland.

The drop down the class ladder might be a winning recipe for Some Nights, who will retain the services of jockey Joe Rocco (a 27% winner the meet) for her second local start. 

To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Some Nights, then play her over #6 Our Strong Vows (5-2) in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #4 Some Nights
$5 exacta: 4 with 6
Total: $15

Presque Isle Downs, Race 1: $15,000 maiden claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#3 Squad Up (5-2) ran just fine against tougher $17,500 maiden claiming company at Presque Isle Downs last month. The daughter of Flashback tracked the pace from fourth place, made a mid-race move to reach contention, and flattened out to finish fifth, just 3 3/4 lengths behind the winner.

The 66 Brisnet Speed rating Squad Up received ranks as the second-highest figure in Tuesday’s field, behind only the 70 posted by morning-line favorite #1 Ettaplace (8-5) in a $16,000 maiden claimer over the Tampa Bay Downs dirt track in April 2020. But Ettaplace hasn’t run since, and she will switch from dirt to Tapeta, so I’m more inclined to support Squad Up at a better price. Squad Up has the tactical speed to secure a perfect trip in this largely paceless field.

A $10 win bet will be our first order of business, to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back promotion. Then we’ll play Squad Up over #5 Trudian’s Promise (2-1) in the exacta.

$10 to win on #3 Squad Up
$5 exacta: 3 with 1
Total: $15

Carryover watch

Presque Isle Downs, Race 3: $1,236 Pick 6 jackpot (5:35 p.m. ET)

Planning to bet the $1,236 Pick 6 carryover at Presque Isle Downs?

Although it’s a jackpot-style wager that pays out the full prize only if a unique winning ticket is sold, it’s not unrealistic to dream of sweeping the jackpot. On Thursday, no one managed to hit the Pick 6, even though all six winners started at single-digit odds.

Tuesday’s Pick 6 sequence opens with a straightforward contest.

The kickoff leg is a $7,500 maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares, which should suit #4 Keypit (6-5). The Gerald Brooks trainee has at least a little tactical speed (valuable in this paceless field) and boasts strong form over the Presque Isle Tapeta. Keypit finished second and third in her last two starts at this track and class level and earned competitive Brisnet Speed ratings of 65 and 69.

Brooks has been hot this meet, with a 26% win rate, and jockey Antonio Gallardo (a 41% winner when he teams with Brooks) will take over the mount. That sounds like a winning formula.

Singling Keypit could be a valuable strategy since Race 4 (a $5,000 claimer) looks considerably tougher.

#3 Honorable Hero (5-2) has earned strong Brisnet Speed ratings against tougher claiming company on the New York and New Jersey circuits, but he has never run over a synthetic track. If the switch to Tapeta trips him up, local runners #2 Worbothor (9-2) and #5 Tale of Kantharos (3-1) can steal the show.

Race 5 is an $8,000 claimer, where #5 Brevet Officer (3-1) offers appeal. The five-year-old gelding owns a 1-1-1 record from four starts at Presque Isle, including a head defeat in a $6,250 claimer July 20. That effort was flattered when the third-place finisher returned to win his next start against similar company, so we’ll place our faith in Brevet Officer, then add the class-dropping $8,000 claimer #3 Blue Sky’s Above (4-1) and the two-time Presque Isle winner #4 Unflappable Max (9-2).

Just a half-dozen horses will face the starter in Race 6, an $8,500 claimer.

They all bring similar Brisnet Speed ratings, and splitting them is difficult. It’s tempting to hit the “all” button, but to keep costs down, we’ll use only four — #3 Orazio (6-1), #4 Serve Revenge Cold (5-2), #5 Ault (7-2), and #6 Beyond Smart (5-2).

In Race 7, a $13,500 claimer for fillies and mares, #5 Our Closure (9-5) is a logical choice thanks to her 4-0-1 record from eight starts over the Presque Isle Tapeta. But Our Closure could only finish third at this track and class level two starts back, 1 1/4 lengths behind runner-up #2 Flirty (4-1). The latter rarely misses the trifecta over synthetic tracks and must be used in equal strength with the favorite.

The Pick 6 wraps up with Race 8, a $5,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares.

#1 Malarkey (5-2) has cracked the trifecta in three straight races at this track and class level, but Brisnet Speed ratings suggest she is not a standout. #4 Amazon Lizzie (2-1) won at this class level in October and will be a factor if she brings her "A" game off the 10-month layoff.

#7 Abbey’s Snow White (4-1) will drop in class, after she finished second in an $8,500 claimer at Presque Isle on Aug. 2, and #8 Conquesthardcherry (10-1) is eligible to challenge in her second run of the season, considering she finished just 1 1/2 lengths behind Malarkey on July 28.

If we use all four to conclude the Pick 6, then our ticket shapes up as follows:

20-cent Pick 6: 4 with 2,3,5 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5,6 with 2,5 with 1,4,7,8 ($57.60)

Good luck!