Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 11

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Aug. 11 at Colonial Downs, Indiana Grand, and Presque Isle Downs, along with a pair of singles for the $187,640 Pick 6 carryover at Saratoga.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby Day, Aug. 31.
• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Delaware Park and Indiana Grand.
• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.

Picks and plays

Colonial Downs, Race 4: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:09 p.m. ET)

Although #6 Check the Grade (8-1) could only finish sixth in her debut at Colonial Downs last month, the bay filly didn’t run a bad race. After she opened up a five-length lead through blazing fractions of :20.50 and :44.57, Check the Grade led into the stretch and understandably faded late.

If Check the Grade rations her speed a bit better Wednesday, she can sustain her run down the lane to beat #5 Street Tapper (3-1) and #9 She’s Like Thunder (7-2).

$20 to win on #6 Check the Grade
$5 exacta: 6 with 5,9
Total: $30

Indiana Grand, Race 7: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 5:31 p.m. ET)

#2 Casper Justice (2-1) ran a big race at this track and class level last month, when he tracked the pace in a five-furlong dash and settled for second place. The two-year-old gelding earned a competitive 57 Brisnet Speed rating.

Casper Justice is eligible to take a step forward in his second run under colors, considering trainer Cipriano Contreras (a 25% winner with juveniles) strikes at a 18% rate with second-time starters.

To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Casper Justice, then play him over #6 Highcotton Justice (5-2) and #7 Shineonbrad (7-2) in the exacta and trifecta.

$10 to win on #2 Casper Justice
$4 exacta: 2 with 6,7 ($8)
$1 trifecta: 2 with 6,7 with 6,7 ($2)
Total: $20

Presque Isle Downs, Race 6: Allowance (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:50 p.m. ET)

#6 Elia (9-5) has shown consistency over the Tapeta track at Presque Isle, where she has the board in seven of her eight starts and won three times. The daughter of Liaison was particularly sharp in a six-furlong, $40,000 optional-claiming allowance to kick off 2021, when she opened up a daylight lead through hot fractions of :22.07 and :44.74, then hung on to win by a length, for a career-best 81 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Lance Stokes wins at a 28% rate with horses who run back for the second time off a layoff, so Elia figures to fire another strong shot in her second run of the season. Throw in the presence of jockey Pablo Morales (a 36% winner at Presque Isle), and Elia looks tough to beat at a short price.

We’ll keep our betting strategy simple and play Elia over #1 Pepper (7-2) and #3 Danceswithbourbon (5-1) in the exacta.

$15 exacta: 6 with 1,3 ($30)

Carryover watch

Saratoga, Race 5: $187,640 Pick 6 carryover (3:21 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Saratoga kicks off with a hefty $187,640 Pick 6 carryover. The $1 wager is unlikely to be easy (or inexpensive) to hit, but we’ve identified a pair of singles to bookend the sequence and keep our costs to a minimum.

Race 5: #1 Tivoli Twirl (8-5)

It might seem odd to single a sprinter in a 1 1/8-mile route race, but Tivoli Twirl — though untested beyond 6 1/2 furlongs — looks like a logical choice to win this two-turn maiden route for New York-breds.

His last two starts have produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 86 and 85, which is fast enough to vie for victory. And Tivoli Twirl is bred to stretch out in distance, considering half-siblings, Saythreehailmary’s and Afleet Alexandra, both won stakes at 1 1/16 miles.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, the only horse quick enough to challenge Tivoli Twirl is #4 Blitz to Win (6-5), who finished ninth in his lone run beyond 6 1/2 furlongs. Since Tivoli Twirl seems more likely to appreciate Wednesday’s 1 1/8-mile trip, we’ll place our faith in the son of Twirling Candy, with the knowledge trainer John Terranova wins at a 21% rate with horses who run long for the first time.

Race 10: #4 Clever Fellow (6-5)

There’s a reason Clever Fellow is favored at 6-5 to win this 1 1/16-mile turf test for New York-breds.

The son of Lookin At Lucky has cracked the trifecta in five straight maiden special weight events on the New York circuit, including when he finished second in a 1 1/16-mile event at Saratoga last month. The latter effort was flattered when both the winner and the third-place finish returned to win their next starts.

The drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company suggests he’ll be tough to beat, especially since trainer Chad Brown wins at a 26% rate with this move. Throw in the presence of three-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz, and Clever Fellow looks like a logical, short-priced single.

Good luck!