Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 12

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Aug. 12 at Presque Isle Downs, along with two singles for the $13,881 Pick 7 carryover at Arlington Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Woodbine.
• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Leopardstown (Ireland).
• Arlington Million Bet Club: Earn a $5 bonus for every $100 in settled wagers made at Arlington Park this Thursday and Friday. Bonus funds must be wagered at Arlington on Saturday, Arlington Million Day.
• Del Mar Daily $500 Place Jackpot: Cash six or more $5+ place bets on any given card at Del Mar to split a $500 daily jackpot.

Picks and plays

Presque Isle Downs, Race 7: $35,000 allowance/optional claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:45 p.m. ET)

#6 Nurse Judy (8-1) has already shown winning form on dirt and turf, so there’s no reason to think this sophomore filly can’t factor on Tapeta.

She is a daughter of J P’s Gusto, who won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and placed in Norfolk S. (G1) and CashCall Futurity (G1) over synthetic footing.

Nurse Judy arrives at Presque Isle in hot form, off back-to-back allowance wins over the dirt track at Thistledown. She is versatile in terms of running style and breezed a bullet half-mile in :46 3/5 at Presque Isle last month, so all signs suggest Nurse Judy can challenge at a nice price.

Keep in mind, trainer Maria Bowersock has been hot at Presque Isle this meet, with a 38% win rate.

#1 Caramel Martini (2-1) and #3 Redeem My Heart (9-5) can battle to complete the exacta.

$20 to win on #6 Nurse Judy
$5 exacta: 6 with 1,3 ($10)
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Arlington Park, Race 1: $13,881 Pick 7 carryover (3:35 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Arlington Park is a bit shorter than usual, with seven races on the agenda, instead of eight. But the racing action is still enticing, highlighted by a $13,881 carryover in the 20-cent Pick 7.

The Pick 7 is a non-jackpot wager with a 15% takeout rate, which stamps the bet as an enticing value proposition.

Assembling a winning ticket won’t necessarily be easy — there are 698,544 potential outcomes to consider — but you can slice the number of possibilities down to just 19,404 if you’re willing to single the following horses in the first two legs of the Pick 7.

Race 1: #1 Yalikeanything (2-1)

Yalikeanything misfired at this class level, track, and six-furlong distance July 24, when he set the pace and faded to finish last in his first start since he was claimed away from Arlington’s leading trainer, Larry Rivelli.

But Rivelli claimed Yalikeanything back, so we’ll view that as a positive sign.

The son of Palace Malice is lightly raced, with just three starts. On July 3, he led all the way to dominate a $12,500 maiden claimer at Arlington by 4 1/2 lengths, for an 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

Rivelli’s go-to jockey, Jareth Loveberry, is named to ride Thursday, so we’ll favor Yalikeanything over the other Rivelli trainee, #3 Rule Follower (8-5), who hasn’t run quite as fast on the Brisnet Speed rating scale.

Race 2: #6 Docs Seven (2-1)

Sprints over the Tapeta track at Arlington seem to be a strong suit for Docs Seven. The three-year-old filly boasts two wins from two starts over the footing and led both times gate to wire. Docs Seven was particularly impressive when she returned from a layoff in an optional-claiming allowance last month, led all the way, and prevailed by a head.

The Brisnet Speed ratings Docs Seven has received for her Arlington victories (81 and 83) fit well against Thursday’s field, so a step up against older rivals for the first time shouldn’t be a major obstacle.

Trainer Hutch Holsapple has been hot this meet, with a 25% win rate, so we’ll count on Docs Seven to get the job done at a short price.

Good luck!