Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 13

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Aug. 13 at Arlington Park, Del Mar, and Ellis Park, plus an $18 ticket for the $30,293 Pick 5 carryover at Ellis Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Kembla Grange (Australia).
• Arlington Million Bet Club: Earn a $5 bonus for every $100 in settled wagers made at Arlington Park this Thursday and Friday. Bonus funds must be wagered at Arlington on Saturday, Arlington Million Day.
• Dan Patch/Mr. D. $5,000 Jackpot: Make winning $100+ win bets on the Dan Patch (Race 13) at Hoosier Park on Friday, Aug. 13 and the Mister D S. (Race 9) at Arlington Park on Saturday, Aug. 14 to win your share of a $5,000 jackpot.

Picks and plays

Ellis Park, Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:14 p.m. ET)

Trainer Norm Casse has three wins from eight starts with debut two-year-olds on the Kentucky circuit this year, which suggests #7 Not So Close (8-1) is worth a long look in this maiden dash for juvenile fillies.

A daughter of Belmont S. (G1) winner Empire Maker, out of a mare by 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, Not So Close is bred to run long, yet she has shown excellent speed during training. Over the last month at Ellis Park, she has clocked five furlongs in a bullet :59, four furlongs from the starting gate in :47 1/5, and four furlongs in :47 3/5.

At 8-1, Not So Close is worth betting to win and playing over fellow first-time starters #2 Catbrier (8-5) and #3 Delightof the Nile (3-1) in the exacta.

$24 to win on #7 Not So Close
$3 exacta: 7 with 2,3 ($6)
Total: $30

Arlington Park, Race 6: $6,250 claiming (1 1/16 miles on Polytrack, 6:02 p.m. ET)

#1 Go for Sherrie (4-5) is the fastest entrant in terms of recent Brisnet Speed ratings, and he has visited the winner’s circle in four of his five starts since June.

But the five-year-old gelding has competed against slightly easier company on dirt and hasn’t cracked the trifecta in two starts over the synthetic track at Arlington Park, which suggests he isn’t unbeatable at a short price.

We’ll take a shot against Go for Sherrie with #4 Chapel Barn (5-1).

If you draw a line through his recent turf forays, Chapel Barn’s form looks solid, highlighted by a runner-up effort at this track, distance, and class level July 4. The son of More Than Ready has tactical speed and the Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge if Go for Sherrie fails to bring his "A" game.

A small win bet and an exacta play are the two wagers we’ll place.

$10 to win on #4 Chapel Barn
$5 exacta: 4 with 1
Total: $15

Del Mar, Race 7: Allowance (five furlongs on turf, 10 p.m. ET)

Normally, we would favor a frontrunner in a race like this, since 65% of five-furlong turf sprints at Del Mar are won by gate-to-wire leaders. But there is such an abundance of speed in this competitive allowance that a pace meltdown seems likely, which makes #6 Harbored Memories (7-2) an appealing play.

Harbored Memories has some positional speed, but he is also very tractable. He employed tracking tactics to win 6 1/2-furlong maiden and allowance events over the Santa Anita turf course.

Harbored Memories didn’t stay one mile in the Oceanside S. at Del Mar last month, when he finished 10th, but he was only beaten 3 1/4 lengths at the finish and figures to rebound on the cut back in distance. Harbored Memories has only tasted defeat once in a turf sprint, when he finished second in his debut, behind future Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Rock Your World.

At 7-2, Harbored Memories looks like a solid win play.

$30 to win on #6 Harbored Memories

Carryover watch

Ellis Park, Race 4: $30,293 Pick 5 carryover (3:14 p.m. ET)

Looking for a lucrative carryover to chase Friday? Look no further than the Pick 5 prize pool at Ellis Park. The 50-cent, non-jackpot sequence includes four maiden races, which presents a tricky challenge.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the Pick 5, then put together an $18 ticket.

Race 4: Maiden special weight (six furlongs)

We’ll use our top choice, #7 Not So Close (8-1), along with #2 Catbrier (8-5) and #3 Delightof the Nile (3-1), to kick off the Pick 5.

Race 5: Maiden special weight (6 1/2 furlongs)

We’ll take a chance and single #3 Atoka (5-2). The D. Wayne Lukas trainee is easily the fastest of the experienced runners in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, and his last two dirt sprint starts yielded runner-up efforts.

Race 6: Maiden special weight (one mile)

#9 We All See It (5-2) posted a 76 Brisnet Speed rating when he rallied to finish third in a seven-furlong maiden dash over this track last month. Trainer Eddie Kenneally wins at a 25% rate with horses who run long for the first time, but since We All See It benefited from a fast pace in his debut, we’ll back him up with #4 Ignitis (6-1), who has more tactical speed.

Race 7: Allowance/optional claiming (one mile on turf)

#4 Jezebel’s Kitten (5-2) and #2 Peter’s Kitten (6-1) have competed admirably against allowance company for hot trainers Brad Cox and Mike Maker, respectively. One or the other should be good enough to prevail.

Race 8: $10,000 maiden claiming (one mile on turf)

Sixth and fourth in his first two starts on the California circuit last season, #7 Union Soldier (9-2) can factor on the drop from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company for his first run of 2021.

The son of Union Rags has been gelded and will race with Lasix for the first time, which sets the stage for an improved effort.

Fellow class droppers #4 Awesummer (7-2) and #6 Ames Mister (5-2) are the others to include.

50-cent Pick 5: 2,3,7 with 3 with 4,9 with 2,4 with 4,6,7 ($18)

Good luck!