Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 16

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Aug. 16 at Colonial Downs and Delaware Park, along with a ticket for the $2,823 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby day, Aug. 31.

Picks and lays

Colonial Downs, Race 3: Allowance/optional claiming (one mile, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#7 Mr. Big News (3-1), the third-place finisher from the 2020 Kentucky Derby (G1), is bound to be a popular play, even on a return from a 10 1/2-month layoff. But his Derby performance ranks as an outlier, compared to his other efforts, so we’ll try to beat him Monday.

#1 Pit Boss (6-1) is the one we’ll favor.

The four-year-old gelding has shown flashes of talent. Two starts back, he dominated a $50,000 claimer at Churchill Downs by five lengths. Claimed out of that race by trainer Michael Tomlinson, Pit Boss subsequently failed to fire in a fast-paced, $62,500 optional-claiming allowance at Churchill on June 6. But he has been freshened since and is eligible to bounce back in his second start for Tomlinson, a 27% winner at Colonial Downs this meet.

A win bet will be our first order of business, followed by an exacta, with Mr. Big News and #5 Galerio (5-2) for second place.

$20 to win on #1 Pit Boss
$5 exacta: 1 with 5,7 ($10)
Total: $30

Colonial Downs, Race 6: Maiden special weight (seven furlongs, 4:05 p.m. ET)

#2 Lidstrom (2-1), a half-brother to 2016 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist, is bound to be favored, because of his strong pedigree and $2.5 million price tag. But the gray colt is unraced and might wind up as an underlay in this competitive race.

#8 Cool Comedian (5-1) is an intriguing alternative. Trained by Edward Vaughan (who won his lone start at Colonial this meet), Cool Comedian endured a troubled break in his debut, a 6 1/2-furlong sprint at Churchill Downs, and never fired. But he improved dramatically when he stretched out to one mile at Ellis Park, where he led into the homestretch and finished fourth, just a half-length behind the winner.

Seven furlongs ought to be perfect for Cool Comedian, who should have enough tactical speed to get a clean trip. We’ll bet him to win, then play him over Lidstrom and #9 Dreaming of Gerry (3-1) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #8 Cool Comedian
$5 exacta: 8 with 2,9 ($10)
Total: $30

Delaware Park, Race 7: Cape Henlopen S. (1 1/2 miles on turf, 4:15 p.m. ET)

#7 Luck Money (4-1) might be facing males, but she looks like a live contender in this long-distance turf stakes.

The four-year-old daughter of Lookin At Lucky defeated older rivals in the 1 1/2-mile Zagora S. at Belmont Park last fall and has competed admirably against graded stakes company this season. She finished second in the 1 3/8-mile Robert G. Dick Memorial S. (G3) and fourth in the 1 1/2-mile Glens Falls S. (G2).

In the Glens Falls, Luck Money arguably raced too close to the early pace, then weakened in the final furlong to finish fourth, behind War Like Goddess, a key contender for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1). The Cape Henlopen looks like an easier spot, and I’m optimistic Luck Money can prevail in the race to the winner’s circle.

$25 to win on #7 Luck Money
$5 exacta: 6 with 1,3 ($10)
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Presque Isle Downs, Race 1: $2,823 Pick 5 carryover (4:45 p.m. ET)

Planning on betting Monday’s $2,823 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs?

Since the 50-cent wager is traditional in style (as opposed to a jackpot-style wager), you don’t have to construct a unique winning ticket to claim a share of the full prize pool.

To help you get started, we’ve assembled a proposed ticket on a $33 budget. Let’s take a race-by-race look at how the sequence may unfold.

Race 1: $5,000 maiden claiming (5 1/2 furlongs)

#2 Bad Pay (8-5) has placed twice against tougher $7,500 maiden claiming company and looms as a formidable favorite with the drop in the class.

Her frontrunning speed is an asset, since 41% of 5 1/2-furlong sprints on Presque Isle's Tapeta are won in gate-to-wire fashion.

But we’ll also include #7 Gucci Gal (4-1), who finished three lengths clear of Bad Pay in a $7,500 maiden claimer two weeks ago.

Race 2: $5,000 claiming (5 1/2 furlongs)

There is a lot of speed in this low-level claimer, which should help the chances of #6 Cathmor (9-2).

The seven-year-old veteran boasts a 6-3-6 record from 19 starts over the Presque Isle Tapeta and has won his last two starts against $5,000 claiming company.

Cathmor brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix for trainer Michael Pappada, who has gone 12 wins from 24 starts at Presque Isle this meet.

We’ll take a shot and single Cathmor at an enticing price.

Race 3: Allowance/optional claiming (one mile and 70 yards)

#3 Grounded (5-2) has never run farther than 6 1/2 furlongs, but he has run well in two starts at Presque Isle, where he won a maiden special weight and finished second in an allowance.

As a son of stamina influence Medaglia d’Oro, out of a mare by Belmont S. (G1) winner Empire Maker, Grounded has the pedigree to thrive running long, so we’ll use him as a single.

Keep in mind, jockey Pablo Morales and trainer Timothy Hamm have 11 wins from 19 starts (69%) together over the last two months.

Race 4: $7,500 maiden claiming (one mile and 70 yards)

#4 Deputy Ox (7-2) and #7 Stare Decisis (5-2) were separated by less than a length when they finished second and third at this track, distance, and class level Aug. 2.

They’ll have every chance to visit the winner’s circle Monday, with the class-dropping #9 Azzedine (5-1) perhaps their stiffest opposition.

Race 5: Lady Erie S. (six furlongs)

#4 Just One Time (3-1) has won her first two starts and most recently dominated the Malvern Rose S. at Presque Isle by 4 1/4 lengths.

She looks like a logical contender again, though her 10 rivals have all posted similar or faster Brisnet Speed ratings. But those came primarily on dirt and turf.

There is no telling who will thrive on the switch to Tapeta, so this race feels ripe for an upset. We’ll hit the “ALL” button and try to catch a double-digit longshot.

50-cent Pick 5: 2,7 with 6 with 3 with 4,7,9 with ALL ($33)

Good luck!