Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 17

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $100 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, Aug. 17 at Colonial Downs and Indiana Grand, along with suggested singles for carryovers at Belterra Park, Penn National, and Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby day, Aug. 31.
• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Indiana Grand.

Picks and plays

Colonial Downs, Race 1: Maiden special weight (one mile on turf, 1:45 p.m. ET)

#1 Soft Touch (2-1) has the pedigree to win this two-turn turf test for juvenile fillies.

A daughter of successful stallion Uncle Mo (who sires 15% winners on grass), Soft Touch was produced by the Seeking the Gold mare Golden Velvet, the dam of graded stakes-winning route runners Lucullan (a turf star) and Innovative Idea.

Soft Touch is trained by Michael Stidham, who has gone a 2-1-2 record from eight starts (25%) with debut juveniles on turf at Colonial Downs since 2019. That includes one win from two starts with debut juveniles in routes, which suggests Soft Touch will be fit for a strong effort over Tuesday’s one-mile trip.

Her work tab is impressive, highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the Fair Hill starting gate in :48 1/5.

A win bet will be our primary play, followed by an exacta, with #2 Amazon Queen (4-1) and #4 Sparkle Blue (5-2) for second place.

$25 to win on #1 Soft Touch
$5 exacta: 1 with 2,4 ($10)
Total: $35

Colonial Downs, Race 3: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#3 Leoville (7-2) finished three lengths behind #4 Swift Dancer (3-1) when he came home third in a five-furlong turf maiden special weight at Colonial Downs last month, but that was Leoville's debut effort, whereas Swift Dancer was running for the fourth time.

I wonder if Leoville has more upside for improvement Tuesday. The son of Munnings is trained by Stidham, who strikes at a 22% rate with second-time starters. It’s also encouraging to note Leoville will pick up the services of jockey Joe Rocco (a 29% winner at Colonial Downs), which sets the stage for a competitive second start.

Swift Dancer and #1 Heavenly Trip (9-5) can battle for the minor awards.

$20 to win on #3 Leoville
$5 exacta: 3 with 1,4 ($10)
Total: $30

Indiana Grand, Race 3: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:27 p.m. ET)

Since 2016, trainer Tom Amoss has 12 wins from 38 starts (32%) with debut juveniles in dirt sprints at Indiana Grand. So why not throw your support behind #7 Celestial Finish (8-5) in this maiden dash for two-year-olds?

A son of juvenile Grade 1 winner Gormley (who has sired 26% winners from first-time starters), Celestial Finish has cranked out fast workouts at Keeneland and Turfway Park, including three straight bullet moves since July 28.

I’m optimistic we’ll see Celestial Finish win the race to the winner’s circle, so we’ll place a $10 win bet on the Amoss trainee, to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back promotion.

Fellow first-time starters #3 Bold Bizness (9-2) and #6 Camp David (2-1) can round out the exacta and trifecta.

$20 to win on #7 Celestial Finish
$5 exacta: 7 with 3,6 ($10)
$2.50 trifecta: 7 with 3,6 with 3,6 ($5)
Total: $35

Carryover watch

Belterra Park, Race 4: $2,003 Pick 5 carryover (2:05 p.m. ET)

Best single: Race 6, #3 Pole Setter (2-1)

It’s safe to say 2019 Paradise Creek S. winner Pole Setter has been a win machine over the past few months.

Between April 3 and July 13, the five-year-old gelding rattled off six consecutive victories, with five in $5,000 starter allowances, the same level as Tuesday's test.

Pole Setter finally tasted defeat July 29, but it was hardly a poor performance. He finished second on a switch to turf and a stretch out to 1 3/8 miles in an $8,000 starter allowance at Belterra. 

A return to dirt and a drop in class and distance should make the son of Take Charge Indy difficult to deny.

Presque Isle Downs, Race 3: $2,062 Pick 6 jackpot (5:35 p.m. ET)

Best single: Race 7, #4 Smoky Blues (4-1)

There isn’t much speed in this six-furlong dash, which contains many runners who will cut back in distance.

That should set the stage for Smoky Blues to work out a perfect trip.

A tried-and-true sprinter, Smoky Blues typically employs pressing or stalking tactics and boasts a 5-0-1 record from eight starts over the Presque Isle Tapeta track. He kicked off 2021 with a pair of easy victories, then finished fifth in a tough optional-claiming allowance but was beaten just 2 1/4 lengths by the winner.

Smoky Blues brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings and figures to stalk frontrunner #2 Stevis Man (6-1) and pounce in the lane.

Penn National, Race 4: $3,722 Pick 5 carryover (7:22 p.m. ET)

Best single: Race 5, #6 Calculated Thinkin (2-1)

Calculated Thinkin has been pretty much unstoppable since he was claimed by trainer Timothy Kreiser, a 30% winner at Penn National this meet.

Calculated Thinkin finished third in an $8,000 claimer over this track last month, but he previously rattled off three straight victories against $4,000 and $5,000 claiming company.

The six-year-old gelding owns the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings in Tuesday’s field and should be tough to beat if he brings his "A" game.

Throw in the presence of jockey Julio Hernandez (a 43% winner when he teams with Kreiser), and we have a recipe for victory.

Good luck!