Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 18

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Aug. 18 at Colonial Downs and Canterbury Park, along with thoughts for the $145,197 Pick 6 carryover at Saratoga.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby day, Aug. 31.
• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Canterbury Park.
• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at York (United Kingdom).

Picks and plays

Colonial Downs, Race 3: Maiden special weight (1 1/16 miles on turf, 2:41 p.m. ET)

#5 Ballyhoo Prince (6-5) is the favorite, after he finished second over this course and at class level July 21, but the five-year-old gelding is winless in 13 starts, so he is not the type to trust at a short price. Playing him for second place is a better option, considering he has occupied the runner-up spot in all four of his turf runs.

Instead of betting Ballyhoo Prince to win, we’ll support #7 Elusive (4-1). The three-year-old gelding has only run twice. He finished seventh in his debut on dirt last summer and returned from a long layoff to finish fourth (just 2 1/4 lengths behind Ballyhoo Prince) in the July 21 maiden heat at Colonial.

Elusive is eligible to improve with the addition of Lasix for his second start of the season, so we’ll bet the son of Mshawish to win and play him over Elusive in a cold exacta.

$20 to win on #5 Ballyhoo Prince
$10 exacta: 5 with 7
Total: $30

Canterbury Park, Race 6: Minnesota Derby (one mile and 70 yards, 8:40 p.m. ET)

Most bettors will favor #3 Thealligatorhunter (3-5), who has crossed the wire first in four straight races at Canterbury. But the son of Overanalyze has enjoyed most of his success in sprints and ran a bit below expectations when he stretched out for a one-mile allowance at Canterbury last month, when he crossed the wire just three-quarters of a length ahead and was disqualified to second place for interference.

An alternative to Thealligatorhunter is #5 Kid’s Inheritance (5-1), who offers a much better price on the morning line. The son of two-time Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Goldencents finished second behind Thealligatorhunter in the six-furlong Victor S. Myers S. last month, but previously rolled to a two-length victory in a one-mile allowance at Canterbury.

If Wednesday’s distance proves detrimental to the favorite, Kid’s Inheritance can steal the show. To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Kid’s Inheritance, then play him over Thealligatorhunter in the exacta.

$10 to win on #5 Kid’s Inheritance
$10 exacta: 5 with 3
Total: $20

Canterbury Park, Race 7: Minnesota Oaks (one mile and 70 yards, 9:10 p.m. ET)

#3 Star of the North (3-5) has been absolutely sensational and has won her last seven starts by a minimum of 3 3/4 lengths. A pure frontrunner, Star of the North boasts seven wins from eight starts and has five victories from six starts at Canterbury, where she is a three-time stakes winner.

Star of the North had no trouble with the stretch out to one mile in a July 29 allowance at Canterbury, where she led all the way to beat #7 That Would Be Nice (12-1) by 4 3/4 lengths.

I expect a similar outcome Wednesday, with That Would Be Nice, #1 Molly’s Angel (5-1), and #6 Hell of the North (7-2) battling for places in the trifecta.

$10 trifecta: 3 with 6 with 1,7 ($20)
$10 trifecta: 3 with 1,7 with 6 ($20)
Total: $40

Carryover Watch

Saratoga, Race 5: $145,197 Pick 6 carryover (3:21 p.m. ET)

Are you planning to bet on Wednesday’s lucrative Pick 6 carryover at Saratoga? Then you’d better plan on adapting your strategy to suit the numerous race-day changes.

There is rain in the forecast for Saratoga, so there’s a strong chance the day’s turf races will be transferred to the main track. Considering four of the six Pick 6 races are slated for grass, a surface switch would turn the sequence upside down.

A bevy of scratches would be good news for bettors who hope to play the Pick 6 on a reasonable budget, since the $1 wager features 769,824 possible outcomes before scratches. But it would be a nightmare for any bettor trying to plan their tickets in advance.

Fortunately, there are a couple formidable main-track only entrants we can fall back on.

The first is #7 Lemieux (6-5) in Race 5, a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight for juvenile fillies. A daughter of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist, Lemieux has finished second in her first two starts, both sprints on dirt, including one against future stakes winner Happy Soul.

Lemieux handled a muddy track just fine when she finished second by a head in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga last month and earned a sharp 84 Brisnet Speed rating. If she gets a chance to race Wednesday, Lemieux might be worth a single at a short price.

The same strategy can be employed with #11 Averly Jane (9-5) in Race 9, the Bolton Landing S. for juvenile fillies. The Wesley Ward trainee is undefeated in two starts and followed up a 8 3/4-length maiden win at Keeneland with a 3 1/4-length victory against males in the Kentucky Juvenile S. at Churchill Downs.

Both victories came over off tracks, so if the Bolton Landing is rained out to a wet main track, Averly Jane shouldn’t have any trouble with the footing. Her odds will surely be low, but there are worse strategies than singling a Wesley Ward-trained juvenile in a sprint stakes, right?

Good luck!