Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 2

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Monday, Aug. 2 at Colonial Downs and Assiniboia Downs, along with a $20 ticket for Assiniboia’s $259,941.27 (USD) mandatory-payout Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Colonial Downs Monday Stakes Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any Monday stakes race at Colonial Downs.
• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby day, Aug. 31.
• Assiniboia Pick 5 Bet & Get: Earn a $5 bonus for every $50 you wager on the Assiniboia Downs mandatory-payout Pick 5.
• Assiniboia Downs $5K Pick 5 Hit and Split: Hit the Pick 5 at Assiniboia Downs on any day from Aug. 2-4 to earn a share of a $1,000 daily jackpot. Hit the Pick 5 all three days to earn a share of an additional $2,000 jackpot.
• Manitoba Derby Day Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $20) if you horse finishes second in any race at Assiniboia Downs.

Picks and plays

Colonial Downs, Race 7: Keswick S. (five furlongs on turf, 4:33 p.m. ET)

#3 Cavalier Cupid (5-2) and #4 Rambert (4-1) both ran huge when they finished first and second in a maiden special weight over the Colonial Downs grass last month.

Cavalier Cupid was best that day, when she rallied from just off the pace to score by two lengths, for an 82 Brisnet Speed rating. But Rambert ran gamely in defeat, as she carved out a quick pace and came in eight lengths clear of the third-place finisher.

Both Cavalier Cupid and Rambert are conditioned by hot trainers, and they have the pedigrees to improve with experience and maturity.

It will come as no surprise if they run first and second again in the Keswick S., though it is possible the order will be reversed. Rambert is eligible to improve off her debut for trainer Michael Stidham, who wins at a 22% rate with second-time starters.

For the purpose of playing the Colonial Downs Monday Stakes Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Rambert. But we’ll also box Rambert in the exacta with Cavalier Cupid.

$10 to win on #4 Rambert
$10 exacta box: 3,4 ($20)
Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 8: Hickory Tree S. (five furlongs on turf, 5:01 p.m. ET)

#10 Evan Harlan (5-2) is technically a maiden, but it’s hard to knock the effort he turned in on debut. The Graham Motion trainee outran expectations in a six-furlong turf maiden special weight at Belmont Park, where he finished third, by two lengths, at odds of 14-1.

That effort produced a 81 Brisnet Speed rating, which is easily the best figure earned by any of the experienced runners in the Hickory Tree S. field. Evan Harlan brings a classy turf pedigree and should be tough to beat, if he repeats his debut effort.

To take  advantage of the Colonial Downs Monday Stakes Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Evan Harlan, then play him over #3 Wow Whata Summer (9-2) in a small exacta.

$10 to win on #10 Evan Harlan
$5 exacta: 10 with 3
Total: $15

Assiniboia Downs, Race 1: $5,000 claiming (7 1/2 furlongs, 8:35 p.m. ET)

#1 Beautiful Babe (4-5), who has shipped in from Canterbury Park, is the clear favorite, but her Brisnet Speed ratings have slipped in recent starts, so she isn’t a lock to win Monday.

Instead, we’ll support #5 Barbie’s Quest (3-1). A tried-and-true $5,000 claimer, Barbie’s Quest hasn’t missed the board in her last 10 starts at Assiniboia, including three straight runner-up efforts since June 22. If Beautiful Babe falters, Barbie’s Quest is the logical choice to pick up the pieces.

To capitalize on the Manitoba Derby Day Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $20 win bet on Barbie’s Quest, then play her over Beautiful Babe and #3 Go Witt Go (5-1) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #5 Barbie’s Quest
$5 exacta: 5 with 1,3 ($10)
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Assiniboia Downs, Race 4: $259,941.27 (USD) Pick 5 mandatory payout (10:05 p.m. ET)

Get ready! Assiniboia Downs is set to celebrate Manitoba Derby Day, with the mandatory dispersal of a $259,941.27 (USD) Pick 5 jackpot.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence for the 20-cent wager, then assemble a ticket on a $20 budget.

Race 4: $2,500 claiming (5 1/2 furlongs)

#2 He’s a Lady Tamer (9-5), #3 Norm’s Place (5-2), and #6 Delta Reward (5-1) have all run competitive races against tougher company. But the consistent $1,500 claimer #5 Greeleys Spirit (6-1) enters in strong form and has the Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge at a fair price.

Race 5: $1,500 claiming (5 1/2 furlongs)

#1 Witts Data Link (5-2), #4 Hilda (3-1), and #6 Catalina Dreamin (4-1) were separated by 1 1/2 lengths when they finished second, third, and fourth over this track, distance, and class level July 19. Any of them can prevail Monday, though we’ll also support #3 Button Mushroom (5-1) and #5 Chicle Sparks (15-1), two runners who will drop from $5,000 claiming races.

Race 6: $5,000 claiming (7 1/2 furlongs)

A case can be made for almost anyone in this competitive event for non-winners of two races. We’ll spread deep, with #2 Rascal Candy (8-1), #4 Takinthenitetrain (5-2), #5 Two Terms (8-5), #6 Captain John (5-1), and #7 Big Rocket Man (10-1).

Race 7: Manitoba Derby (1 1/8 miles)

#3 Myopic (8-5) crushed a maiden special weight at Indiana Grand last time out, when he led all the way to score by six lengths, for a field-best 90 Brisnet Speed rating. He’ll be tough to deny in his first start for trainer Robertino Diodoro, who has enlisted jockey Jorge Carreno (a 30% winner at Assiniboia) to ride.

Race 8: $5,000 maiden claiming (six furlongs)

#1 Midnight Judge (2-1) will drop from maiden special weight company for trainer Lise Pruitt, a 24% winner this meet. As one of few speed horses in a largely paceless race, Midnight Judge figures to enjoy a perfect trip from the rail draw.

20-cent Pick 5: 2,3,5,6 with 1,3,4,5,6 with 2,4,5,6,7 with 3 with 1 ($20)

Good luck!