Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 20

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Aug. 20 at Del Mar and Saratoga, plus singles for Arlington Park’s $20,998 Pick 8 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home — but not in the winning order — in any race at Remington Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Randwick (Australia).

Picks and plays

Saratoga, Race 2: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 1:41 p.m. ET)

#3 Speranza (5-2) has the pedigree to win from an early age.

The bay filly is a daughter of Into Mischief, a leading sire of juveniles whose progeny win at a 15% rate on debut. Speranza was produced by the Indian Charlie mare Indian Rush, a stakes-placed two-year-old who previously foaled juvenile stakes winners March X Press and Harlan’s Honor.

Indian Rush, March X Press, and Harlan’s Honor all won their debuts, and Speranza appears capable to do the same. She has put together a solid work tab at Monmouth Park and will pick up jockey Irad Ortiz, which suggests a strong effort is in the offing.

We’ll place a $10 win bet on Speranza, then play her in the exacta, over fellow well-bred first-time starters #4 Empire Lily (3-1) and #6 Makin My Move (9-5).

$10 to win on #3 Speranza
$5 exacta: 3 with 4,6 ($10)
Total: $20

Del Mar, Race 1: $40,000 claiming (one mile on turf, 7 p.m. ET)

#3 First Premio (3-1), once a stakes winner and graded stakes performer at tracks like Fair Grounds, Keeneland, and Churchill Downs, should be tough to beat in the claiming ranks at Del Mar.

It’s hard to knock the performance First Premio produced in an optional-claiming allowance at Del Mar last month, his local debut. In the one-mile race over the turf course, First Premio rallied wide, into the teeth of fast closing fractions, and ultimately finished third, just 1 1/4 lengths behind the winner. He dashed the final quarter-mile in approximately 23 seconds.

On Friday, First Premio will have an opportunity to save ground from post 3, under acclaimed turf rider Umberto Rispoli.

We’ll place a large win bet on First Premio and leave it at that.

$40 to win on #3 First Premio

Del Mar, Race 6: Rancho Bernardo H. (G3, 6 1/2 furlongs, 9:30 p.m. ET)

#3 Stellar Sound (2-1) has placed multiple times against graded stakes competition running long, but the daughter of Tapit looked sharper than ever when she returned from a long layoff in a six-furlong sprint at Del Mar last month.

After she waited for racing room at a key point around the far turn, Stellar Sound found a path, rallied resolutely to win by a neck, and earned a career-best 98 Brisnet Speed rating.

Stellar Sound has since posted a quick half-mile workout at Del Mar, and if she improves at all in her second run of the season, she can beat #4 Edgeway (8-5), #1 Scotish Star (9-5), and #2 Candura (10-1) in the race to the finish line.

$10 trifecta: 3 with 4 with 1,2 ($20)
$10 trifecta: 3 with 1,2 with 4 ($20)
Total: $40

Carryover watch

Arlington Park, Race 1 (3:25 p.m. ET): $20,998.95 Pick 8 carryover 

The Pick 8 is back at Arlington Park!

After a couple seven-race cards that couldn’t accommodate a Pick 8, the challenging 20-cent wager will return Friday, with a $20,998 carryover.

Hitting a Pick 8 is never easy, and Friday’s sequence looks particularly challenging, with 62 entries and 11,854,080 possible outcomes before scratches.

But Friday’s Pick 8 features a couple possible singles at better-than-usual prices.

Let’s highlight the credentials of these (relatively) trustworthy runners and build our ticket.

Race 1: #2 Hoppestry (5-2)

This seven-year-old veteran has shown promising form since she switched from dirt and turf to the Arlington Polytrack. Her first two starts over the local surface yielded back-to-back runner-up efforts in $5,000 claiming sprints, which produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 70 and 72.

Hoppestry will stick to the same class level Friday, when she will face a small field. Hoppestry has already defeated four of them decisively, and the fifth — #6 Bobbie too Too (7-2) — is a pacesetter who may not receive as favorable a setup as Hoppestry in this speed-laden field.

For those reasons, we view Hoppestry as a probable winner.

Race 6: #1 Katie M’lady (2-1)

In case you haven’t noticed, Katie M’lady is almost unstoppable on turf.

Since she finished second in her debut, a five-furlong dash at Arlington, Katie M’lady is undefeated in three grass routes and all came in gate-to-wire efforts.

Katie M’lady was particularly sharp in the one-mile Sharon N. Kirby Memorial S. at Arlington last month, when she prevailed by 2 1/4 lengths, with a career-best 81 Brisnet Speed rating that ranks favorably in Friday’s field.

If Katie M’lady shakes loose on an easy lead, she can lead all the way.

Good luck!