Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 25

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Aug. 25 at Indiana Grand and Saratoga, plus a ticket for the $268,050 Jackpot High 5 carryover at Arlington Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby day, Aug. 31.
• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Indiana Grand.
• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.

Picks and plays

Indiana Grand, Race 6: $25,000 starter/optional claiming (five furlongs on turf, 12:23 p.m. ET)

Speed is strong in five-furlong turf sprints at Indiana Grand, as pacesetters win 44% of the time. That stat bodes well for #8 Creative Credit (3-1), who has set the pace in three of her last four starts.

A speedy daughter of Creative Cause, Creative Credit ran huge in a $25,000 optional-claiming allowance over this course and distance Aug. 17. In her return from a two-month layoff, Creative Credit pressed a blazing opening quarter mile in :21.03, took the lead through a half-mile in :43.69, and weakened just slightly in the final furlong to finish second, by a half-length.

This effort earned an 85 Brisnet Speed rating, easily the best last-out figure posted by any horse in Wednesday’s field. A repeat of that performance can land Creative Cause in the winner’s circle.

To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Creative Credit. Then we’ll throw in a small exacta, with mid-pack closer #6 Tap N Sway (6-1) for second place, since she figures to receive a hot pace to chase.

$10 to win on #8 Creative Cause
$5 exacta: 8 with 6
Total: $15

Indiana Grand, Race 7: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 12:52 p.m. ET)

#3 Bella Bolle (3-5) looks tough to beat in this maiden sprint for Indiana-bred juvenile fillies.

The daughter of Mondavi finished second in her debut against open company July 28 at Indiana, where she closed ground at the finish and was beaten just a half-length.

The result was a 66 Brisnet Speed rating that towers over Wednesday’s field. If Bella Bolle repeats the effort, she’ll surely prevail Wednesday.

Bella Bolle is a full sister to juvenile stakes winner Ron, who finished second in his debut at Indiana Grand before he won the Ambassador S. over the same track.

#2 Carolyn’s Angel (9-2) and #4 Tryinforjustice (5-1) look like logical exacta and trifecta players.

$10 exacta: 3 with 2,4 ($20)
$5 trifecta: 3 with 2,4 with 2,4 ($10)
Total: $30

Saratoga, Race 3: $100,000 optional-claiming allowance (1 1/8 miles on turf, 2:15 p.m. ET)

#1 Pocket Square (2-5) is the overwhelming favorite for top turf trainer Chad Brown, but is this Juddmonte Farms homebred unbeatable?

She won a 1 1/16-mile allowance during the Keeneland spring meet in fine fashion, but she subsequently failed to challenge in the Just a Game S. (G1) and Diana S. (G1) and lost ground from the eighth pole to the finish on both occasions.

There is hardly any speed in Wednesday’s compact field, so if Pocket Square finds herself compromised by a modest tempo, perhaps #4 Key Biscayne (6-1) can spring a surprise.

The daughter of Brethren has shown flashes of tactical speed in the past, including when she finished fifth in the Belmont Oaks (G1) last fall, and she arrives at Saratoga off a victory in the Monroe S. at Gulfstream Park.

Key Biscayne looks competitive from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and she is set to make her first start for trainer Mike Maker, Saratoga’s leading trainer, with 23 wins at the meet.

Let’s place a $10 win bet on Key Biscayne, then play her over Pocket Square in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #4 Key Biscayne
$5 exacta: 4 with 1
Total: $15

Carryover Watch

Arlington Park, Race 8: $268,050 Jackpot High 5 (7:04 p.m. ET)

If you want to take a serious shot at sweeping Arlington Park’s $268,050 Jackpot High 5 jackpot carryover, Wednesday might be the day to give it a go.

Race 8 on Wednesday affords a better opportunity than usual to produce a unique ticket, with 11 entries and 55,440 possible outcomes to analyze.

A $20,000 claimer for fillies and mares at one mile on turf, Race 8 looks competitive on paper. There isn’t anything resembling a standout favorite in the mix, and morning-line favorite #10 Texas Rain (7-2) is vulnerable, considering she has faced easier company recently and has never run on turf.

So why not go for broke and endeavor to construct a unique winning ticket?

We’ll start by eliminating Texas Rain entirely, as the surface switch and class jump may trip her up. Then we’ll build a ticket around #1 Rapid Transit (6-1), #3 Zandrea’s (5-1), #9 Smack (4-1),  and #7 April’s Gem (12-1), who ran first, second, third, and fourth in a $20,000 claimer over this course and distance Aug. 9. They bring a variety of running styles, and the latter three are consistent competitors at this class level.

#6 Windy City Girl (6-1), who finished sixth in the same $20,000 claimer, is another worth including. Three starts back, she finished a neck clear of Zandrea’s in a similar $20,000 claimer at Arlington. She is eligible to produce an improved effort in her first start for Arlington’s leading trainer, Larry Rivelli, a 34% winner with new claiming acquisitions.

Let’s box Rapid Transit, Zandrea’s, Smack, April’s Gem, and Windy City Girl across the first four slots of our Super High 5. Then we’ll spread a bit deeper in the final slot.

20-cent Super High 5: 1,3,6,7,9 with 1,3,6,7,9 with 1,3,6,7,9 with 1,3,6,7,9 with 1,2,3,4,6,7,9,11 ($96)

Good luck!