Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 26

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Aug. 26 at Saratoga and Presque Isle Downs, plus suggested singles for a bevy of carryovers at Arlington Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Arlington Park and Presque Isle Downs.
• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Tipperary (Ireland).
• $16,000 Hoosier Park Pick 4 Hit It and Split It: Make a winning early Pick 4 wager at Hoosier Park to win a share of $1,000. Offer applies to the early Pick 4 (Races 3-6) at Hoosier Park every Thursday from Aug. 19 through Dec. 2.

Picks and plays

Saratoga, Race 5: Maiden special weight (1 1/8 miles, 3:21 p.m. ET)

#3 Imminent Storm (6-1) seems like a solid price play in this rare dirt route for juveniles at Saratoga.

As a son of Flatter, out of an Unbridled’s Song mare, Imminent Storm has the pedigree to handle the stretch out in distance.

Imminent Storm didn’t show any tactical speed in his debut, a seven-furlong sprint, but the early pace was quick, and Imminent Storm passed a few rivals to finish sixth, behind a runaway winner.

He’ll add blinkers Thursday, which should get him into the race sooner, and trainer Shug McGaughey wins at a 25% rate with horses that run long for the first time.

In an effort to unlock the Saratoga Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Imminent Storm. Then we’ll play him on top of small exacta and trifecta tickets, with logical favorites #4 Rattle N Roll (2-1) and #8 Keepcalmcarryon (5-2) underneath.

$10 to win on #3 Imminent Storm
$4 exacta: 3 with 4,8 ($8)
$1 trifecta: 3 with 4,8 with 4,8 ($2)
Total: $20

Saratoga, Race 9: Riskaverse S. (one mile on turf, 5:39 p.m. ET)

#2 Keeper of Time (6-1) has shown promising form in her native Ireland, most notably when she sprung an upset victory in the seven-furlong 1000 Guineas Trial (G3) back in April at Leopardstown.

The field was deep, with 15 starters, and Keeper of Time counted Moyglare Stud S. (G1) winner Shale and future Irish 1000 Guineas (G1) top two finishers, Empress Josephine and Joan of Arc, among her beaten rivals.

Keeper of Time hasn’t run since, but her form lines suggest she can vie for victory off the layoff in the Riskaverse. Trainer Brendan Walsh wins at a 16% rate with runners who ship to the U.S., and at an 18% rate with horses who return from layoffs of 90 days or more, so Keeper of Time’s 6-1 odds on the morning line are enticing.

We’ll place a $10 win bet on Keeper of Time and play her on top of a small exacta.

$10 to win on #2 Keeper of Time
$2 exacta: 2 with 4,7,9,11 ($8)
Total: $18

Presque Isle Downs, Race 7: Allowance/optional claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:15 p.m. ET)

#5 Mused (8-5) has faced tough company on turf at Churchill Downs and Saratoga and most recently finishing fourth, just 2 1/4 lengths behind the winner, in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at the Spa.

The drop in class at Presque Isle should make Mused formidable, considering her last two Brisnet Speed ratings (92 and 84) are easily the best recent figures posted by any filly or mare in Thursday’s field.

The switch to Tapeta at Presque Isle is a question mark for Mused, though she broke her maiden over a synthetic track in England, which suggests the surface transition won’t be an issue.

We’ll bet Mused to win and play her over capable Presque Isle allowance performer #4 Chargina (3-1) in a cold exacta.

$24 to win on #5 Mused
$8 exacta: 5 with 4
Total: $32

Carryover watch

Arlington Park, Race 1: $1,656 Pick 8 carryover (3:25 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 2: $508 Pick 7 carryover (3:51 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 3: $1,973 Pick 6 carryover (4:23 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 4: $12,974 Pick 5 carryover (4:54 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 8: $268,050 Jackpot High 5 jackpot (6:55 p.m. ET)

How often do you see five carryovers during one afternoon at a single track?

The 20-cent Pick 6, Pick 7, and Pick 8, plus the 50-cent Pick 5, all feature non-jackpot carryovers from $508 to $12,974. And the Jackpot High 5 boasts a jackpot carryover of $268,050.

Planning to play along? We’ve identified a pair of singles to help you get started.

Race 4: #7 Rule Follower (5-2)

Did you happen to see Rule Follower’s maiden win at Arlington last month? Talk about an impressive performance!

In his first start of the season, Rule Follower led all the way to crush a six-furlong, $12,500 maiden claimer by 10 1/4 lengths.

The strength of his effort was reiterated, when both the runner-up and the third-place finisher came back to win their next starts.

On Thursday, Rule Follower will stretch out from six furlongs to a mile, which is a question mark. But he wasn’t disgraced when he came in fifth in a one-mile turf maiden special weight last season, beaten four lengths in his debut and his only route run to date.

I’m optimistic Rule Follower can run a winning race on the stretch out to a one-turn Polytrack mile, especially with jockey Jareth Loveberry in the saddle for leading trainer Larry Rivelli.

Race 5: #1 Alotmoreaction (5-2)

Alotmoreaction might not seem like a standout single at first glance, considering she has run 13 times without a visit to the winner’s circle.

But the four-year-old filly has improved meaningfully since she switched to turf in her last two starts. She rallied to finish second in a 5 1/2-furlong, $7,500 maiden claimer, then stretched out to one mile to finish second again at the $12,500/$10,000 level.

With back-to-back 63 Brisnet Speed ratings, Alotmoreaction is fast enough to vie for victory, and it is possible she still has upside for improvement.

Since she has already defeated key rivals #4 Couger (7-2) and #6 Locash (4-1) decisively, we’ll view Alotmoreaction as a single candidate.

Good luck!