Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 30

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Aug. 30 at Thistledown, Colonial Downs, and Presque Isle Downs, along with horses of note for the $25,177 Pick 6 carryover at Indiana Grand.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby day, Aug. 31.

Picks and plays

Thistledown, Race 4: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:20 p.m. ET)

#1 Sammy’s Smile (5-2) is the logical favorite, after he placed twice at this track and class level, including a third a this distance July 29.

But I suspect #3 Stunt Man (3-1) can spring a mild surprise.

Stunt Man ran well in that same July 29 maiden heat, where he finished fourth (just 2 1/4 lengths behind Sammy’s Smile) in his debut. His performance was even more impressive when you consider Stunt Man broke poorly and made a wide move to challenge for command, then weakened in the homestretch.

Trainer Robert Gorham wins at an 18% rate with second-time starters, so if Stunt Man improves with a clean trip Monday, he can turn the tables on Sammy’s Smile.

We’ll bet Stunt Man to win and play him over Sammy’s Smile and #7 Gone in a Flash (7-2) on exacta and trifecta tickets.

$15 to win on #3 Stunt Man
$10 exacta: 3 with 1
$5 trifecta: 3 with 1 with 7
Total: $30

Colonial Downs: Race 8: $25,000 starter allowance (1 1/8 miles on turf, 5:01 p.m. ET)

On the final day to play the Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll offer, we’ll bet our $100 in one fell swoop, with a three-digit win bet on #2 Kartano (1-1).

Never out of the trifecta in six starts, Kartano has faced tough company at Gulfstream Park. Three starts back, he finished third in the English Channel S., where he was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths by next-out winners Yes This Time and King of Dreams. And last time out, Kartano rallied boldly to finish second, by a neck, in a $75,000 optional-claiming allowance.

If Kartano brings his "A" game to Colonial Downs, he will be tough to beat. And if his 1-1 morning line odds hold up, we can hopefully double our win bet and walk away with a $5 bonus.

$100 to win on #2 Kartano

Presque Isle Downs, Race 5: Satin and Lace S. (six furlongs, 6:25 p.m. ET)

#11 Inthemidstofbiz (3-1) will face the risk of a wide trip, but her talent may be enough to offset that disadvantage.

The five-year-old mare has used her abundant early speed to win four straight races, including the 2020 renewal of the Satin and Lace S.

Inthemidstofbiz kicked off 2021 with a determined allowance win at Indiana Grand and should appreciate a return to the Tapeta course at Presque Isle Downs. We’ll bet her to win and play her on top of two deep trifecta tickets.

$18 to win on #11 Inthemidstofbiz
50-cent trifecta: 11 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,5,7,9,12 ($6)
50-cent trifecta: 11 with 1,2,3,5,7,9,12 with 2,3 ($6)
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Indiana Grand, Race 3: $25,177 Pick 6 jackpot (3:27 p.m. ET)

Planning to take aim at Monday’s Straight Fire 6 at Indiana Grand? If you want to construct a unique winning ticket and sweep the jackpot, we’ve identified a trio of horses to play (or oppose) with that goal in mind.

Best single: Race 6, #4 Halo Hunter (2-1)

Halo Hunter has been a picture of consistency since he was claimed by trainer Brittany Vanden Berg last fall and has cracked the trifecta in nine straight starts, with five wins. The six-year-old gelding enters off back-to-back blowout wins over the synthetic track at Arlington Park, where he earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 89 and 91.

Halo Hunter has also proven effective on dirt. He won twice at Hawthorne earlier this year, so a return to dirt at Indiana Grand shouldn’t be an issue.

Vanden Berg strikes at a 40% rate with last-out winners, so we’ll view Halo Hunter as a more likely winner than stablemate #6 Slick Silver (8-5). Slick Silver hasn’t hit the board in his last three starts and will return from a 13-month layoff, which makes him tough to trust at a short price.

Live longshot: Race 5, #7 Splash of Tonic (5-1)

#1 Mamala Kamala (2-1) is a logical favorite to win this one-mile maiden special weight for Indiana-bred juvenile fillies, considering she finished second at this track and class level July 27.

But that race was a five-furlong sprint, and it’s possible Splash of Tonic — who finished just 1 3/4 lengths behind Mamala Kamala in fourth place — can turn the tables Monday.

Splash of Tonic is a daughter of Protonico, out of a mare by Flower Alley, which is a pedigree geared strongly toward success running long. Plus, Splash of Tonic is the only horse with proven tactical speed in Monday’s field, so she may receive an easy trip on the front end. I’m optimistic she can outrun expectations in her second start.

Vulnerable favorite: Race 8, #1 Crypto Cat (5-2)

This maiden special weight for Indiana-bred fillies and mares will be contested over one mile on turf, which should suit Crypto Cat. The chestnut four-year-old hasn’t missed the trifecta in four starts running long on turf, including a runner-up effort at this class level four weeks ago.

But Crypto’s Cat’s 0-2-4 record from 12 starts suggests she is more of a “pick up the pieces” type than a reliable win candidate. She’ll face as many as 11 rivals Monday, and in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings and form lines, she doesn’t hold much of an edge.

#7 Bickerments (7-2) crossed the wire ahead of Crypto Cat on June 23, and #5 Miss Donnasue (8-1) finished just a neck short of Crypto Cat on Aug. 2.

Crypto Cat is a logical contender, but she doesn’t look unbeatable at a short price. Opposing her is a good way to add value to your Pick 6 ticket.

Good luck!