Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 4

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Wednesday, Aug. 4 at Indiana Grand, Saratoga, and Presque Isle Downs, along with singles for the $7,810 Pick 6 carryover at Canterbury Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby day, Aug. 31.
• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Indiana Grand.
• Assiniboia Downs $5K Pick 5 Hit and Split: Hit the Pick 4 at Assiniboia Downs on any day from Aug. 2-4 to earn a share of a $1,000 daily jackpot. Hit the Pick 4 all three days to earn a share of an additional $2,000 jackpot.
• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.

Picks and plays

Indiana Grand, Race 3: Allowance (one mile on turf, 3:27 p.m. ET)

#3 Expressed (1-1) has a 2-1-0 record from six starts over the Indiana Grand turf course, which includes a powerful allowance victory against Indiana-breds June 14. The four-year-old gelding didn’t get off to the sharpest start and raced off the pace early on, but soon swept past his rivals to win by 3 1/4 lengths.

Expressed will face slightly tougher allowance company this time around, but the 78 Brisnet Speed rating he received for his recent romp is the best last-out figure in Wednesday’s field. The jump in class shouldn’t be too much of an obstacle, especially if Expressed gets a bit of pace to work with. Throw in the fact jockey Marcelino Pedroza and trainer Michael Lauer have won at a 24% clip together over the last two months, and I think we have a recipe for victory.

#2 Book of Romeo (9-2), who finished third behind Expressed on June 14, can round out the exacta. But our primary play will be a $10 win bet on Expressed, to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back promotion.

$10 to win on #3 Expressed
$5 exacta: 3 with 2
Total: $15

Saratoga, Race 8: Shine Again S. (seven furlongs, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#5 Honor Way (10-1) failed to fire in the Vagrancy H. (G3) at Belmont Park three months ago, when she trailed throughout in a sub-par performance.

But the seven-year-old veteran was previously in strong form on the New York circuit, where she won the Pumpkin Pie S. and Garland of Roses S., then finished third in the Distaff H. (G3), beaten less than a length by Grade 1 winner Paris Lights.

Honor Way has shown an affinity for Saratoga in the past, with a 2-2-0 record from six starts over the main track. She was particularly impressive in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance there last summer, when she romped by four lengths, for a career-best 103 Brisnet Speed rating.

Honor Way has been freshened since the Vagrancy, so she is eligible to bounce back with a stronger effort Wednesday. She breezed a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 at Saratoga last week, which suggests a promising effort is in the offing.

We’ll bet Honor Way to win and play her over logical favorites #1 Bayerness (8-5) and #2 Aunt Kat (7-5) in the exacta.

$16 to win on #5 Honor Way
$4 exacta: 5 with 1,2 ($8)
Total: $24

Presque Isle Downs, Race 2: Maiden special weight (five furlongs on Tapeta, 5:10 p.m. ET)

#3 Center Mid Maddie (7-2) has been working sharply for trainer Leland Hayes, who wins at a 29% rate with first-time starters. The two-year-old colt has breezed a couple quick half-miles from the Presque Isle starting gate in recent weeks, with times of :47 flat and :47 2/5.

From a pedigree perspective, Center Mid Maddie is bred to win at an early age. Sire Uncle Lino is responsible for 19% winners from first-time starters, while dam Wickedly Clever has foaled three juveniles winners from five starters.

A large win bet will be our first order of business, followed by an exacta, with the experienced runners #5 Justicehasbeendone (6-1) and #7 Jo Jo Hans (5-2) for second place.

$24 to win on #3 Center Mid Maddie
$6 exacta: 3 with 5,7 ($12)
Total: $36

Carryover watch

Canterbury Park, Race 5: $7,809.74 Pick 6 carryover (8:10 p.m. ET)

Canterbury Park’s Pick 6 has proven elusive in recent weeks. The $1 wager isn’t a jackpot-style bet, but it hasn't been hit since July 15, which means a carryover pool of $7,809.74 has accumulated for Wednesday’s card.

Since Canterbury’s Pick 6 carries a takeout rate of just 10%, it ranks among the most value-oriented wagers in racing, especially when there is a carryover on the line. But playing along is expensive, since the $1 base bet makes Canterbury’s Pick 6 five times more expensive to play than the 20-cent, jackpot-style Pick 6 wagers found at many other tracks.

The key to keeping costs in check is to find a single (or two) and construct your tickets accordingly. With that in mind, we’ve identified a pair of singles to get you started.

Race 6: #11 Love the Nest (2-1)

There are several promising first-time starters in this five-furlong maiden special weight for juveniles. But they’ll have to be sharp to beat Love the Nest, who ran a big race in his debut at Canterbury last month.

A troubled start left the son of Blame off the pace early in the 4 1/2-furlong dash, but Love the Nest never stopped trying and rallied to finish second, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths and 5 3/4 lengths clear of the rest.

This effort produced a 82 Brisnet Speed rating, far above the 71 rating that stands as par for Wednesday’s conditions at Canterbury.

If Love the Nest repeats or improves upon his debut effort, he’ll be tough to beat at a short price.

Race 9: #5 Excursion (3-1)

Although Excursion was beaten in his first eight starts, seven were route races held over one mile or farther. The son of Curlin clearly relished the cut back in distance for a six-furlong maiden special weight at Canterbury last month, when he settled a couple lengths off the early pace, rallied boldly, and dominated by six lengths.

This eye-catching effort produced an 85 Brisnet Speed rating and a 99 Brisnet Late Pace rating, both encouraging figures that fit well in this 5 1/2-furlong allowance.

Hot jockey Lindey Wade is slated to ride for high-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro, which sets the stage for a winning performance.

Good luck!