Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Wednesday, Aug. 4 at Presque Isle Downs, Saratoga, and Del Mar, along with a 10-1 longshot to key in three carryovers at Arlington Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Arlington Park and Presque Isle Downs.
• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Sandown (United Kingdom).
• $10K Pick 4 Hit It and Split It at Hoosier Park: Hit the early Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on any Thursday from July 8-Aug. 5 to win your share of a $2,000 weekly jackpot.

Picks and plays

Presque Isle Downs, Race 2: Maiden special weight (one mile and 70 yards, 5:10 p.m. ET)

#7 Zuri (2-1) has always had the potential to be a nice runner. Sold for $1 million as a yearling, the sophomore filly is a half-sibling to the graded stakes-winning routers Point of Honor and Wicked Whisper.

Zuri failed to seriously factor in her first three starts on turf and dirt, but the daughter of Union Rags was more competitive in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Presque Isle Downs Tapeta track last month. After she dropped near the back of the pack, behind modest fractions, Zuri rallied gamely to finish second, beaten less than one length but 16 1/4 lengths clear of the third-place runner.

A repeat of this effort should be sufficient to send Zuri to the winner’s circle. To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Zuri.

#4 Ononimo (5-2) can complete the exacta.

$10 to win on #7 Zuri
$5 exacta: 7 with 4
Total: $15

Saratoga, Race 9: Birdstone S. (1 3/4 miles, 5:39 p.m. ET)

#3 Lone Rock (1-1) has been almost unstoppable since he stretched out in distance for trainer Robertino Diodoro. The six-year-old gelding has won his last three starts (all at 1 1/2 miles) by a combined 21 3/4 lengths, including a stunning 11 1/4-length romp in the Brooklyn S. (G2).

But #4 Moretti (5-2) may be able to steal the show Thursday. Although Moretti finished a distant third in the Brooklyn, that effort marked his first start back from a 10-month layoff. The son of Medaglia d’Oro followed up with a much-improved effort in the 1 1/4-mile Suburban S. (G2), where he carved out the pace and finished fourth, within three lengths of established Grade 1 performers Max Player, Mystic Guide, and Happy Saver.

Moretti has tactical speed and handled 1 3/4 miles just fine in the 2020 Birdstone, when he tracked the pace and edged away to win by 1 1/2 lengths. If he brings his "A" game back to Saratoga, Moretti can spring a small surprise against Lone Rock.

Veteran stayers #1 Ry’s the Guy (8-1), #6 You’re to Blame (4-1) and #7 Rocketry (12-1) can battle to round out the trifecta.

$20 to win on #4 Moretti
$9 exacta: 4 with 3
$2 trifecta: 4 with 3 with 1,6,7 ($6)
Total: $35

Del Mar, Race 7: CTBA S. (5 1/2 furlongs, 8 p.m. ET)

#7 It’s Simple (3-1) was tons the best in a five-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita last month.

After she dueled for the lead, the daughter of champion juvenile Nyquist drew clear to win by 5 1/2 lengths, for a sharp 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

It’s Simple’s runaway victory was flattered when runner-up #9 Drizella (5-1) and sixth-place finisher #4 Gianna’s Wild Cat (4-1) returned to win their next starts with improved Brisnet Speed ratings.

If It’s Simple takes a step forward in her second start — and judging from her recent workouts, that’s a fair possibility — she can out-sprint proven stakes winner and morning-line favorite #2 At the Spa (5-2) in the race to the finish line.

$20 to win on #7 It’s Simple
$5 exacta: 7 with 2
Total: $25

Carryover watch

Arlington Park, Race 1: $4,312 Pick 8 carryover (3:25 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 2: $976 Pick 7 carryover (3:51 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 8: $187,170 Super High 5 jackpot (6:56 p.m. ET)

There are three carryovers up for grabs to kick off the racing week at Arlington Park. The 20-cent Pick 8 and 20-cent Pick 7 boast modest, non-jackpot carryovers, while the 20-cent Super High 5 features a hefty (but harder to hit) jackpot carryover of $187,170.

All three carryovers come to a head in Race 8, a $12,500 claimer for fillies and mares at one mile over the turf course. A field of nine has been entered, and at first glance, #2 Stack Shack (5-2) seems like the perfect choice to win. The daughter of Shackleford finished second over this course, distance, and class level July 15, when she was beaten just one length, after she carved out a pace over a yielding turf course.

Stack Shack is a logical choice for hot trainer Anthony Granitz (a 22% winner at Arlington this meet), but there is a problem — Stack Shack isn’t the only speed horse in Thursday’s field.

She enjoyed an uncontested lead July 15, but Stack Shack figures to be challenged Thursday by runaway $6,250 maiden claiming winner #4 Cave Creek (8-1), the typically speedy $12,500 claimer #8 Unburnt (6-1), and perhaps even the pace-pressing #7 Magic Solution (7-2), who finished just a neck behind Stack Shack last time out.

All this speed could set the stage for a big effort from #1 Maystart (10-1). The three-year-old daughter of Upstart has only run once on grass, when she finished fourth by just 2 1/4 lengths in a $20,000 claimer at Arlington three starts back. That effort was flattered when both the runner-up and the third-place finisher returned to win their next starts.

If Maystart repeats that effort, on the descent to the $12,500 claiming level Thursday, she can come running late to upset her more heralded rivals.

So why not take a shot? Let's key Maystart in the Super High 5 and single her in the Pick 7 and Pick 8. Big paydays could be in the offing if she comes home on top at 10-1.

To help you get started, here’s how we recommend betting the Super High 5.

20-cent Super High 5: 1 with 2,7 with 2,3,4,7 with 2,3,4,7 with ALL ($12)
20-cent Super High 5: 1 with 2,7 with 2,3,4,7 with ALL with 2,3,4,7 ($12)

Good luck!