Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Friday, Aug. 6 at Saratoga and Del Mar, along with suggested singles for lucrative carryovers at Arlington Park and Monmouth Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Saratoga Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Saratoga. Offer must be unlocked each day of the meet; see offers page for details.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Rosehill (Australia).

Picks and plays

Saratoga, Race 7: National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame S. (G2, one mile on turf, 4:29 p.m. ET)

#8 Wolfie’s Dynaghost (6-1) has shown significant talent and potential on dirt, with two wins from his three starts against solid competition. The son of Ghostzapper was particularly flashy in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Belmont Park last month, when he carved out fast fractions over a sloppy track and cruised home two lengths clear of next-out stakes winner Founder.

It is possible Wolfie’s Dynaghost will prove even more effective on grass. Ghostzapper sires 14% winners on turf, while dam Dynaire is already famed for producing Sadler’s Joy, winner of the Sword Dancer S. (G1) over the Saratoga grass. Three-time champion jockey Irad Ortiz (an acclaimed turf rider) is slated to ride Wolfie’s Dynaghost, which stamps the bay colt as an appealing choice at a fair price.

To take advantage of the Saratoga Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Wolfie’s Dynaghost. Then we’ll play him over recent Manila S. runner-up #2 Public Sector (2-1) in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #8 Wolfie’s Dynaghost
$5 exacta: 8 with 2
Total: $15

Del Mar, Race 3: Maiden special weight (one mile, 8 p.m. ET)

#6 Bobby Bo (8-5) is the fastest horse on paper, after he finished second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight July 25 at Del Mar, where he earned a 96 Brisnet Speed rating. But the Bob Baffert trainee has been defeated twice favored at odds-on, which suggests he isn’t a lock to prevail on the stretch out in distance Friday.

In contrast, #4 Who’s the Star (6-1) — who finished six lengths behind Bobby Bo July 25 — figures to relish the added distance. A son of 1 1/2-mile Belmont S. (G1) winner Tonalist (whose progeny win at a solid average distance of 7.6 furlongs), Who’s the Star is a half-sibling to Super Derby (G2) winner Bourbon Courage and Champions Starters Series Final H. winner Wine Stock, two horses who did their best running at 1 1/16 miles or farther.

Who’s the Star will add blinkers for his two-turn debut and stands to outrun his enticing 6-1 morning-line odds. A large win bet will be our first order of business, followed by an exacta, with Bobby Bo and #2 Magnificent (5-2) for second place.

$20 to win on #4 Who’s the Star
$5 exacta: 4 with 2,6 ($10)
Total: $30

Del Mar, Race 7: Sorrento S. (G2, six furlongs, 10 p.m. ET)

#7 Sax (10-1) might not be the flashiest filly entered in this six-furlong sprint for juveniles, but she has certainly kept good company.

After a slow break and and a sixth-place finish in her debut at Churchill Downs (a race won by future Debutante S. winner Behave Virginia), Sax returned to tenaciously win a five-furlong maiden special weight over the same track, with next-out winner Let’s Be Clear among her beaten rivals.

Sax has since been transferred to the care of trainer Phil D’Amato, who will equip the daughter of Jimmy Creed with blinkers for her stakes debut.

If Sax’s promising Kentucky form translates to the California circuit, she can spring a surprise over logical Sorrento favorites #2 Smash Ticket (9-5), #3 Eda (4-1), and #9 Elm Drive (5-2).

$15 to win on #7 Sax
$3 exacta: 7 with 2,3,9 ($9)
$1 trifecta: 7 with 2,3,9 with 2,3,9 ($6)
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Arlington Park, Race 1: $7,417 Pick 8 carryover (3:25 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 2: $1,722 Pick 7 carryover (3:51 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 4: $6,833 Pick 5 carryover (4:55 p.m. ET)
Arlington Park, Race 8: $192,406 Super High 5 jackpot (7:07 p.m. ET)

In case you missed it, Arlington Park has four carryovers Friday. There are non-jackpot prize pools up for grabs in the 50-cent Pick 5, 20-cent Pick 7, and 20-cent Pick 8, while the 20-cent Super High 5 boasts a six-figure jackpot carryover.

Planning to tackle one (or more) of the carryovers? We’ve gone through the card and identified a pair of singles to get you started.

Best single: Race 7, #1 Rayo de Luz (4-5)

Rayo de Luz has been a win machine at Arlington Park this season, with three gate-to-wire wins in four starts. Trained by Armando Hernandez (a 26% winner at Arlington), Rayo de Luz has posted four straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 86-99 range, which gives him a significant advantage over rivals who have mostly posted figures of 80 or less.

Friday’s heat is a $20,000 optional-claiming allowance held over 1 1/16 miles on the main track, and since Rayo de Luz prevailed at this class level two starts back, it’s easy to understand why the speedy frontrunner is favored at 4-5. He looks tough to beat.

Second-best single: Race 2, #3 O’Keeffe (6-5)

Arlington’s leading trainer, Larry Rivelli, strikes at a 50% rate with horses who drop in class off a victory, which suggests O’Keefe will be difficult to deny in this $50,000 optional-claiming allowance. The son of Munnings wired an $80,000 optional-claiming event over the Arlington Polytrack last month, when he led all the way to dominate by four lengths.

O’Keeffe will switch from Polytrack to turf for Friday’s test and also cut back from six furlongs to five. But that isn’t too concerning, because O’Keeffe has a 1-3-0 record from five starts on turf, including a close, runner-up effort at this distance and class level in his 2021 debut. With Rivelli’s go-to jockey, Jareth Loveberry, in the saddle, O’Keeffe looms as a logical choice to prevail at a short price.

Monmouth Park, Race 2: $201,241 Pick 5 carryover (5:28 p.m. ET)

You’ll be hard-pressed to find a more enticing carryover to play Friday than the Pick 5 at Monmouth Park. The 50-cent wager boasts a non-jackpot prize pool of $201,241, which will be dispersed equally among all winning bettors.

With 45 horses (nine per race) before scratches, the sequence looks competitive. That’s why we’ve identified a possible single to help you narrow the number of possible outcomes.

Best single: Race 3, #4 Brice (8-5)

Victorious in four straight races, including three at Monmouth Park, Brice has been on a roll, as he steadily ascends the class ladder.

The four-year-old son of Flatter employed pace-tracking tactics to win a $22,000 claimer at 1 1/16 miles last month, so he looks well spotted to tackle Friday’s $16,000 optional-claiming allowance over the same track and distance.

Brice was claimed out of his latest victory by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer, a 28% winner at Monmouth this meet. If Brice brings his "A" game — and there’s no reason to think he won’t — he can roll home on top at a short price.

Good luck!