Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Aug. 9

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, Aug. 9 at Colonial Downs, Indiana Grand, and Thistledown, along with a pair of singles for carryovers at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Colonial Downs Monday Stakes Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any Monday stakes race at Colonial Downs.
• Build Your Virginia Derby Day Bankroll: For every day you wager at least $100 at Colonial Downs from July 26-Aug. 30, receive $5 to wager at Colonial Downs on Virginia Derby day, Aug. 31.

Picks and plays

Thistledown, Race 8: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 4:20 p.m. ET)

Since 2016, trainer Jason DaCosta has nine wins from 31 starts (29%) with debut two-year-olds at Thistledown. This impressive stat suggests we must respect DaCosta’s unraced juveniles, #2 Free Sailin (5-1) and #6 Good Idea (3-1), in this maiden sprint with six entries.

The two colts appear to have been training mates in recent weeks. Their work tabs has been identical over the last month, and both notably blazed a bullet half-mile from the Thistledown starting gate in :46 1/5 July 28. Good Idea’s work tab is a bit longer, which may explain his shorter price on the morning line.

But Free Sailin is slated to be ridden by Fernando Salazar Becerra, a jockey DaCosta has used with some success in recent months.

Let’s key Free Sailin and Good Idea on top of exacta and trifecta tickets, with the experienced #3 Juju Nineteen (9-2) underneath.

$5 exacta: 2,6 with 2,3,6 ($20)
$2.50 trifecta: 2,6 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,6 ($10)
Total: $30

Colonial Downs, Race 8: Van Clief S. (1 1/16 miles on turf, 5:01 p.m. ET)

#5 Tasting the Stars (9-5) boasts an impressive three wins from four starts on turf, with all three of her victories in stakes. She was particularly sharp in the Nellie Mae Cox S. at Colonial Downs last month, when she rallied boldly from mid-pack to score by 2 1/4 lengths in her seasonal debut.

Tasting the Stars should be tough to beat for high-percentage trainer Miguel Vera, but don’t sleep on the chances of #8 Princess Theorem (10-1) as a live longshot. She wasn’t disgraced in the Allen Black Cat LaCombe Memorial S. at Fair Grounds back in March, when she finished fifth in a race that unfolded slow early and fast late. She has been freshened since and is eligible to take a step forward off the layoff for trainer Brendan Walsh, who has two wins and a second from three starts at Colonial this meet.

We’ll make Tasting the Stars the focus of our $10 win bet for the Colonial Downs Monday Stakes Bet Back promotion. Then we’ll box Tasting the Stars and Princess Theorem in the exacta, just in case the latter outruns expectations at an enticing price.

$10 to win on #5 Tasting the Stars
$7 exacta: 5 with 8
$3 exacta: 8 with 5
Total: $20

Indiana Grand, Race 7: Maiden special weight (one mile, 5:31 p.m. ET)

Now with the most wins for a trainer in North American racing history, Steve Asmussen will saddle #4 Presidential (4-1) in this maiden route for juveniles.

Considering the bay colt is a son of Kentucky Derby (G1) runner-up Pioneerof the Nile, whose progeny win at an average distance of 7.5 furlongs, two turns on debut should suit Presidential.

Asmussen has been on fire with two-year-olds at Indiana Grand this year, with five wins from six starts.

At 4-1, I’m willing to bet Presidential can continue that hot streak, with the Brad Cox trainees, #8 Admission (4-1) and #9 Ginnsu Warrior (3-1), to round out the exacta.

$10 to win on #4 Presidential
$5 exacta: 4 with 8,9 ($10)
Total: $20

Carryover watch

Presque Isle Downs, Race 1: $4,646 Pick 6 carryover (4:45 p.m. ET)
Presque Isle Downs, Race 3: $970 Pick 6 jackpot (5:35 p.m. ET)

Unlike on most racing days, there are two carryovers up for grabs at Presque Isle Downs on Monday.

There’s the usual prize pool in the jackpot-style, 20-cent Pick 6, which stands at $970. But there is also a non-jackpot $4,646 carryover in the 50-cent Pick 5, which is the most enticing carryover to play Monday.

If a little Pick 5 action sounds good to you, here are a couple suggested singles.

Most reliable single: Race 1, #5 Let Peace Prevail (7-2)

Although Let Peace Prevail isn’t the favorite on the morning line, I’m optimistic the three-year-old colt will be tough to beat, even against older rivals in this six-furlong dash.

There isn’t much speed in the race, so Let Peace Prevail — who has set, pressed, or stalked the pace in all five of his starts — should enjoy a beneficial trip, on or near the early lead.

Let Peace Prevail has cracked the trifecta in three of his four starts over the Presque Isle Downs Tapeta track, including a game, third-place effort in a $25,000 claimer July 26. The drop to the $20,000 level stamps Let Peace Prevail as a serious threat for trainer Michael Pappada, who has gone seven wins from 19 starts at Presque Isle this meet.

Most valuable single: Race 4, #3 Signs of Greatness (5-2)

It might seem odds to list a 5-2 favorite as a value play, but Signs of Greatness may play like a longer shot in the Pick 5. 

He will face a full field in a low-level claimer, and some bettors will be inclined to spread deep for extra coverage, but we’ll take a shot with a single.

A speedy gelding who typically sets or tracks the pace, Signs of Greaness should enjoy a favorable trip, since 45% of 5 1/2-furlong sprints at Presque Isle are won by gate-to-wire leaders.

Signs of Greatness kicked off 2021 with a runner-up effort at this track, distance, and class level July 5, when he succumbed by a nose after he held a lead into the stretch.

Third-place finisher Dixie Highway flattered the effort when he returned to win a similar race comfortably, so we’ll count on Signs of Greatness to do the same against Monday’s large field.

Good luck!