Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Feb. 23

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Feb. 23 at Gulfstream Park and Turfway Park, including a ticket for Turfway’s $31,973 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Turfway Park.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: $35,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (about five furlongs on Tapeta, 3:09 p.m. ET)

It’s safe to say #5 Wow Tapit (5-2) is fond of the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track. Her debut over this surface yielded a gate-to-wire victory in a $16,000 maiden claimer, and her most recent run (in a $35,000 claimer) produced an identical pacesetting triumph. Who knows, if Wow Tapit hadn’t fallen in a $75,000 allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream two starts back, she might be undefeated on Tapeta.

In any case, Wow Tapit enters Wednesday’s heat as the horse to beat. Her career-best 84 Brisnet Speed rating is strong, and she has the speed to be prominent from the outset over this abbreviated five-furlong trip. Throw in the fact Wow Tapit is racing for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Hector Berrios and Amador Sanchez (36% winners together over the last two months), and the gray filly looks tough to beat.

Stretch-running #6 Arrow Shape (9-2) can capitalize on a presumably hot pace to rally and complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #5 Wow Tapit
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 6
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 3: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 7:16 p.m. ET)

#3 Order of the Day (3-1) is the morning line favorite while dropping down from $30,000 maiden claiming company. But he’s yet to hit the board in six starts, and trainer Steve Asmussen has been a bit cold at Turfway Park this meet, compiling a 29-0-2-1 record.

We’ll try to beat Order of the Day with #8 Schenectady Star (4-1). The son of Cairo Prince has cracked the trifecta in two of his four starts on Tapeta, including a runner-up effort sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs over this track and class level on Feb. 12. Even better, Schenectady Star ran third in a $20,000 maiden claimer over one mile and 70 yards at Gulfstream Park last fall.

• $20 to win on #8 Schenectady Star
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 3,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 7: $30,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 9:16 p.m. ET)

There’s a fair amount of speed entered in this 6 1/2-furlong sprint, which means #2 Atta Boy Anthony (5-2) should receive the setup he needs to excel while dropping down in class and distance.

Atta Boy Anthony’s first two starts over the Turfway Tapeta have come racing one mile. In a $30,000 claimer, Atta Boy Anthony dueled for the lead before weakening slightly to finish fourth. Then in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer, Atta Boy Anthony settled about five lengths behind a hot pace, made a mid-race move to reach contention, and ultimately flattened out to finish fifth.

Returning to the $30,000 claiming class level should suit Atta Boy Anthony, and the cutback in distance should strengthen his finishing kick down the homestretch.  Let’s bet Atta Boy Anthony to win, then key him over #3 Slim Slow Slider (3-1) and #4 Vidal (9-2) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #2 Atta Boy Anthony
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 3,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 1: $31,973 Pick 5 carryover (6:15 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Turfway Park kicks off with a bang on Wednesday. There’s a $31,973 carryover in the 50-cent Pick 5, and a competitive sequence featuring 52 entries before scratches is on the table.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence, then assemble a ticket on a $24 budget:

Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta)

#2 Dom the Bomb (6-5) loves synthetic tracks; he has an 11-for-22 record over artificial going. The 10-year-old gelding crossed the wire first in a $5,000 claimer sprinting five furlongs at Turfway last month, and while he was ultimately disqualified and placed second, his overall effort was strong. Don the Bomb is a key threat to win for real while sticking to the same distance and class level.

#8 Ola Que Tal (5-2), fresh off back-to-back wins against $4,000 company on dirt at Mountaineer, is the only other runner we’ll use.

Race 2: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta)

#9 Command Central (9-2) ran third in his Turfway debut over this distance and class level on Jan. 16, beaten only 2 1/2 lengths while closing strongly at the finish. But in a race containing barely any speed at all on paper, we must also respect the class-dropping #5 K Rules (4-1), who has been part of the pace in three of his last six starts.

Race 3: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta)

We’ve already made our case for #8 Schenectady Star (4-1) as the runner to beat, but we’ll also toss in longshot #7 Blacksmith Strong (20-1), who is eligible to improve while stretching out in distance, switching surfaces, adding Lasix, dropping blinkers, and racing for the first time as a gelding.

Race 4: $15,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on Tapeta)

A competitive race with many viable contenders. We’ll spread deep with #1 Luckywise (9-2), #3 Gorilla Girl (6-1), #6 Hoops and Baskets (3-1), #7 Irresistible Lady (7-2), #9 La Neblina (15-1), and #10 Mississippi Muse (5-1).

Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta)

#1 Giant Nova (5-2) finished second in a six-furlong sprint over this track and class level on Jan. 16, closing steadily to finish second by a neck. The rail post is winning at a solid 17% rate in 6 1/2-furlong sprints, and Giant Nova owns the two strongest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field, so we’ll single Giant Nova to conclude the Pick 5.

• 50-cent Pick 5: 2,8 with 5,9 with 7,8 with 1,3,6,7,9,10 with 1 ($24)

Good luck!