Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Jan. 20

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 picks and plays for Thursday, Jan. 13 at Gulfstream Park, Fair Grounds, and Sam Houston, including a trio of exactas.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Sam Houston.

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Trainer Chad Brown has compiled an excellent 12-4-5-0 record (33% wins, 75% in-the-money) with horses running long over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track. This includes a 2-1-1-0 record with first-time starters and a 10-3-4-0 tally with experienced runners.

These stats suggest the Brown trainees #3 Credit Event (2-1) and #7 Forwardly (3-1) will be formidable in this Tapeta test for three-year-olds. Forwardly already has experience, rallying late to finish fifth in his debut on turf at Aqueduct. But the unraced Credit Event brings a lengthy work tab to the table and is a son of Not This Time, who sires 20% winners from first-time starters.

Let’s box the Brown trainees in an exacta and hope they run 1-2 in either order.

• $15 Exacta box: 3,7 ($30)

Fair Grounds: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 6:07 p.m. ET)

The par-winning Brisnet Speed rating for this class level is 80, but none of the experienced runners in Thursday’s field of Louisiana-bred sophomores have earned a figure higher than 67. This hints the race is ripe for conquest by a first-time starter—perhaps #4 Eddie’s Humor (5-1).

A son of Distorted Humor, who sires a solid 15% winners from first-time starters, Eddie’s Humor is bred to win from an early age. Dam Ready’s Gal won her debut and placed at the Grade 1 level as a juvenile, and her most accomplished foal to date—Derby Trial S. (G3) winner Machen—won his debut at Fair Grounds in January of his three-year-old season.

Trainer Sturges Ducoing wins at a 27% rate with first-time starters, so let’s bet Eddie’s Humor to win and key him on top of a small exacta using #7 Renati (9-2) for second place.

• $20 to win on #4 Eddie’s Humor
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 7
  Total: $25

Sam Houston: Race 8: $30,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on turf, 8:16 p.m. ET)

#9 Sunlit Song (8-5) looks like a standout in this turf test for Texas-breds. The seven-year-old gelding has won multiple stakes and was last seen smashing an open allowance at Remington Park by 2 1/4 lengths.

Sunlit Song hasn’t missed the trifecta in nearly three years and has repeatedly proven his worth against tough company—two starts back, he rallied boldly to finish second by less than a length in the Remington Green S. at Remington Park. Sunlit Song boasts a solid 7-2-2-2 record over the Sam Houston turf course, and a typical performance should carry him to victory over the improving #6 Kenai Bob (3-1).

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Sunlit Song. We’ll follow it up with a cold exacta using Kenai Bob for second place.

• $10 to win on #9 Sunlit Song
• $10 Exacta: 9 with 6
  Total: $20

Good luck!