Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Jan. 21

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Jan. 21 at Tampa Bay Downs, Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita, plus a ticket for the $9,157 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Fair Grounds. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Meydan (Dubai) or Randwick (Australia).

Picks and Plays

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 3:13 p.m. ET)

Since 2017, trainer Chad Brown has gone 8-for-26 (31%) debuting horses in turf routes at Tampa Bay Downs. This impressive win percentage stamps Brown’s unraced #5 Napoleonic War (5-2) as a key contender for victory on Friday.

A son of acclaimed sire War Front, Napoleonic War has put together a solid work tab in preparation for his debut, highlighted by a bullet half mile in :49 3/5 over the slow surface at Payson Park. Brown has been hot at Tampa Bay Downs this meet, going 4-for-7 (57%), and hot jockey Samy Camacho (3-for-6, 50% teaming up with Brown over the last two months) is named to ride.

Let’s bet Napoleonic War to win, then key him over stablemate #4 Unexpected Outcome (4-1), the well-bred #8 Seigneur (4-1), and the experienced #9 Ludo (7-2) in exacta and trifecta tickets.

• $15 to win on #5 Napoleonic War
• $3 Exacta: 5 with 4,8,9 ($9)
• $1 Trifecta: 5 with 4,8,9 with 4,8,9 ($6)
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#5 Chione (8-5) owns the highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field of fillies and mares. The daughter of Frosted posted a career-best 80 when finishing second in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs during the spring.

But Chione hasn’t run since June, when she finished sixth with a troubled trip at Churchill. She’s trained quickly for her return and picks up hot jockey Brian Hernandez, but trainer Cherie DeVaux (an 18% winner overall) strikes at just a 12% rate with horses returning from long layoffs. Is 8-5 too short a price to accept?

Let’s try to beat Chione with #3 Whispered Kiss (3-1). The Mark Casse trainee has been firing off fast workouts at Fair Grounds, including five furlongs from the starting gate in :59 2/5. Whispered Kiss ran well in her debut sprinting six furlongs at Ellis Park last summer, finishing third, and she might have upside for improvement in her second career start.

In addition to a win bet on Whispered Kiss, we’ll take advantage of the Exacta Insurance offer and place a cold $10 exacta using Chione for second place.

• $20 to win on #3 Whispered Kiss
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 5
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles, 6:38 p.m. ET)

#1 Piroli (5-1) didn’t catch many eyes when finishing fourth in his debut sprinting six furlongs at Los Alamitos, beaten 10 lengths. But trainer Michael McCarthy wins at just an 8% rate with first-time starters, so a peak effort was unlikely to be in the offing.

In contrast, McCarthy wins at a 16% rate with second-time starters, and at a 20% rate with horses running long for the first time. These stats suggest Piroli can produce a more competitive effort while stretching out over 1 1/16 miles.

Let’s bet Piroli to win and key him over the Bob Baffert trainees #3 Armagnac (7-5) and #5 Kerouac (8-5) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #1 Piroli
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 3,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch - UPDATE: Turfway Park has canceled Jan. 21 racing

Turfway Park, Race 8: $1,273 Super High 5 carryover (9:46 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of the $1,273 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs on Friday at Turfway Park, you had better come prepared for an imposing handicapping challenge.

The carryover is available in Race 8, a $15,000 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies racing one mile on Tapeta. The majority of the entrants have yet to crack the trifecta, and many are dropping down significantly in class, so sorting through the contenders will be difficult.

If there’s a horse we might, maybe, possibly be able to build tickets around, it’s #6 Alittlesliceof Pie (4-1). In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, she’s one of the fastest fillies in the field. The daughter of Mastery threw down a 67 when finishing third in a $15,000 claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Keeneland main track, then put up a 65 when running third against $30,000 company sprinting six furlongs at Turfway.

Dropping in class and stretching out in distance should be an ideal combination for Alittlesliceof Pie, whose trainer—Norman Cash—has gone 5-for-21 (24%) at Turfway this meet. Throw in the fact her half-brother Coastline ran third in the 1 1/8-mile Spiral S. (G3) on synthetic, and Alittlesliceof Pie seems like as reliable a choice as any.

If we key Alittlesliceof Pie on top of our tickets, we can afford to spread deeper underneath. But first, we’ll creatively key #4 Hoops and Baskets (6-1) for second place. Third in her debut against maiden special weight company at Ellis Park, Hoops and Baskets recently returned from a six-month layoff to run eighth in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Turfway.

The latter effort wasn’t the most inspiring performance, but it did produce a respectable 62 Brisnet Speed rating. Trainer Aveory Faircloth wins at a 22% rate with horses running long for the first time, and hot jockey Gerardo Corrales (a 25% winner at Turfway) is named to ride, so there’s plenty to like about Hoops and Baskets.

Our maximum ticket outlined below is a bit pricey at $140. But since #13 Joezine (10-1) and #14 Pappysaysyes (6-1) are also-eligibles, scratches may reduce the cost of the ticket substantially—perhaps to as little as $30.

• $1 Super High 5: 6 with 4 with 3,10,11,13,14 with 3,10,11,13,14 with 1,2,3,7,10,11,12,13,14 ($140)

Good luck!