Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Jan. 27

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Jan. 27 at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, and Fair Grounds, including tickets for Gulfstream’s $3,604 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Aqueduct.

Picks and Plays

Aqueduct: Race 4: $25,000 Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 2:18 p.m. ET)

Racing on the rail has been an advantage at Aqueduct, so we’ll steer our support toward #2 No More Mischief (3-1). The son of three-time leading sire Into Mischief wired his debut for a $40,000 claiming tag at Belmont Park, but subsequently got squeezed between rivals at the start of a $50,000 starter optional claiming at Aqueduct, which compromised his chances.

With a clean break on Thursday, No More Mischief can come out running under Kendrick Carmouche (a 23% winner teaming up with trainer Todd Pletcher) and secure the lead in this largely paceless field. From there, he can shift to the rail and roll to victory over stablemate #1 Amazing Dream (6-1) and morning line favorite #5 Saratoga Kisses (7-5).

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on No More Mischief. Then we’ll key him on top in the exacta.

• $10 to win on #2 No More Mischief
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 1,5 ($10)
  Total: $20

Gulfstream Park: Race 6: $20,000 Claiming (one mile, 3:05 p.m. ET)

#4 Red Flag Alert (4-1) has spent most of his career competing on turf and synthetic. But his lone dirt try at Hawthorne last fall wasn’t bad—he set the pace in a $20,000 allowance optional claimer before weakening to finish second by a head.

That effort produced a career-best 90 Brisnet Speed rating, so Red Flag Alert is eligible to fire a strong shot while returning to dirt at Gulfstream. He wasn’t disgraced in a $20,000 claimer over the Gulfstream Tapeta two weeks ago, finishing fifth, so let’s bet Red Flag Alert to win and key him on top of an exacta.

• $20 to win on #4 Red Flag Alert
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 2,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 9: $40,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles, 6:07 p.m. ET)

#2 Starrininmydreams (9-2) showed promises against graded stakes company last year, finishing third in the Lexington S. (G3) and fourth in the Indiana Derby (G3) against fellow sophomores. He’s been freshened since October and has put together an encouraging string of workouts in preparation for his four-year-old debut, highlighted by five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at Fair Grounds.

Starrininmydreams isn’t the fastest horse in Thursday’s field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, but if he shows improvement off the layoff, he can vie for victory under hot jockey Reylu Gutierrez. We’ll take a shot betting Starrininmydreams to win and call it a day.

• $25 to win on #2 Starrininmydreams

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park, Race 1: $3,604 Super High 5 carryover (12:30 p.m. ET)

If you enjoy playing the rolling $1 Super High 5 wagers at Gulfstream Park, then you’ll be happy to know the first offering on Thursday’s card features a $3,604 carryover.

The race involved is a $12,500 maiden claimer for three-year-old sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. It’s not necessarily the recipe for a predictable outcome, but we’ll try to hit the wager on a reasonable budget by keying #3 U U Star (2-1) on top.

As a son of Carpe Diem (who won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity on synthetic), U U Star has the breeding to handle artificial going. He’s also proven at the $12,500 maiden claiming class level, finishing third and second in his first two runs over the Gulfstream Park dirt.

U U Star brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix and will add Lasix for his sophomore debut. He was beaten as the favorite last time, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing—trainer Ronald Spatz strikes at a 42% rate with horses coming off a defeat as the favorite.

If we key U U Star on top, then #7 Fran’s Strike (4-1) becomes an appealing choice to use underneath. Conditioned by hot trainer Amador Sanchez (a 24% winner at Gulfstream this meet), Fran’s Strike finished third in his debut for a $12,500 claiming tag at Gulfstream, coming home just two lengths behind U U Star. The presence of jockey Hector Berrios (a 29% winner when teaming up with Sanchez) adds to the appeal.

#1 Nathaniel’s Hope (3-1) and #9 Flatbush (5-1), two runners dropping in class out of tougher races, are other logical contenders to use underneath. And if you want to throw in a longshot, why not #2 Time of Peace (30-1)? He exits a fifth-place finish for a $16,000 maiden claiming tag over the Gulfstream Tapeta, and the fact he has experience over this track is appealing.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 7 with 1,2,9 with 1,2,9 with 1,2,4,6,8,9 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 1,2,9 with 7 with 1,2,9 with 1,2,4,6,8,9 ($24)
  Total: $48

Good luck!