Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for June 22

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $50 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, June 22 at Indiana Grand and Thistledown, along with horses of note in Indiana Grand’s $35,537 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing and Thistledown.
• Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll: Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show bets) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Picks and plays

Indiana Grand, Race 2: Allowance (six furlongs, 2:56 p.m. ET)

#3 Hitthefloorrunning (4-5) is the heavy favorite off two starts.

After she dominated her sprint debut at Indiana Grand by 7 1/2 lengths, the daughter of Unbridled Express rallied to finish second in a one-mile and 70-yard allowance over the same track.

Hitthefloorrunning figures to be dangerous on the cut back in distance, but she hasn’t run since October, and trainer Jeffrey Greenhill (a 22% winner overall this year) strikes at just a 9% rate with horses who return from layoffs of 90 days or more.

We’ll take a shot against the favorite with #4 Express Lady (4-1).

While her 1-for-9 record isn’t eye-catching, she has put up solid Brisnet Speed ratings at this class level and most recently rallied from mid-pack to finish clearly second-best in a 5 1/2-furlong dash. If Hitthefloorrunning needs a race off the layoff, Express Lady can spring a surprise.

We’ll bet Express Lady to win and play her over Hitthefloorrunning in the exacta.

$20 to win on #4 Express Lady
$5 exacta: 4 with 3
Total: $25

Thistledown, Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs, 2:50 p.m. ET)

#2 Dougie D Oro (4-1) was on fire last fall, when he won three straight races on the Ohio circuit by daylight margins. He ended the year with a gallant, third-place effort in a six-furlong allowance at Mahoning Valley, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths after a duel for early command.

Dougie D Oro brings tactical speed and has thrown down four straight Brisnet Speed ratings in the 84-93 range, which stamps him as one of the fastest horses in Tuesday’s field. He broke his maiden by 8 1/4 lengths at Thistledown and will be tough to catch if he brings his "A" game off the layoff.

Stakes winner #6 Big Truck (5-2) can complete the exacta, but our primary play will be a $10 win bet on Dougie D Oro, to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer.

$10 to win on #2 Dougie D Oro
$5 exacta: 2 with 6
Total: $15

Thistledown, Race 7: Allowance (six furlongs, 3:50 p.m. ET)

This six-furlong dash for Ohio-breds is packed with speed.

All nine entrants have done their best running on or near the lead and the majority has displayed speed consistently.

That’s why we’re going to take a chance with the longshot #8 Upgrade Al (10-1). The three-year-old gelding required nine starts to break his maiden, but finally broke through in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Belterra Park earlier this month.

But Upgrade Al’s Brisnet Speed ratings are competitive, and it’s worth noting he secured his victory with a rally from 1 1/2 lengths off the pace. He also showed the ability the close from mid-pack when he came in second in a Mahoning Valley maiden race in April, so if any horse can settle back and capitalize on a fast pace Tuesday, it’s probably Upgrade Al.

Throw in the fact jockey Perry Ouzts and trainer Larry Smith has won at a 25% rate together over the last 60 days, and Upgrade Al looks to have a live shot at victory. To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Upgrade Al and call it a day.

$10 to win on #8 Upgrade Al

Carryover watch

Indiana Grand, Race 3: $35,537 Pick 6 jackpot (3:27 p.m. ET)

Think you have what it takes to assemble a unique winning ticket for Tuesday’s 20-cent Straight Fire 6 at Indiana Grand? If you can achieve the elusive feat, you’ll take home the whole $35,537 jackpot, plus the daily pool. And even if your ticket isn’t unique, playing along is a good way to earn bonus cash through the Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll promotion.

Monday’s Straight Fire 6 sequence was pretty chalky. If you constructed a ticket using the top two favorites in each race, you would have spent $12.80 for a return of $139.30.

If you want to join in on Tuesday’s Straight Fire 6, here are a handful of noteworthy runners to bet or oppose.

Vulnerable favorite: Race 3, #6 Ego (9-5)

Ego has put up solid Brisnet Speed ratings this season, and hot jockey Jose Batista has retained the mount.

But Ego has been competing on dirt, and this one-mile allowance will take place over the grass course. Throw in the fact Ego is a deep closer in a small field with hardly any pace, and he looks tough to trust at a short price.

Best single: Race 3, #2 Charcoal (3-1)

If we’re opposing Ego in the Straight Fire 6 opener, then Charcoal looks like a viable single.

The son of English Channel has won three straight races against allowance company on dirt, with Brisnet Speed ratings comparable to Ego.

He is bred to relish turf and has placed in two of his four starts on grass, but best of all, he looms as the only true frontrunner on paper.

If he shakes loose on an easy lead, he may prove impossible to run down.

Live longshot: Race 4, #1 Henny Fly (5-1)

Henny Fly’s recent form on fast dirt tracks is solid.

She has cracked the exacta in her last four starts under such conditions, and most notably came home second in a $10,000 claimer at Oaklawn Park. This effort produced a 78 Brisnet Speed rating, which fits very well against Tuesday’s field.

Henny Fly has plenty of tactical speed and may set the pace after a break form the rail, which is a benefit, since 48% of six-furlong dirt sprints at Indiana Grand are won by horses with the Brisnet “E” (Early) running style.

Henny Fly might not be a lock to win, but she is an “E” and appears to offer fair wagering value as the 5-1 fourth choice in a field of seven.

Good luck!