Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for June 24

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, June 24 at Arlington Park, Belmont Park, and Churchill Downs, along with horses of note for Arlington’s $108,719 Pick 8 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Bet and Get at Arlington Park: Earn a $10 bonus when you wager at least $50 on the Pick 8 at Arlington and also wager another $50 elsewhere on the Arlington card.
• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Arlington Park and Canterbury Park.
• Churchill Downs Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs.
• Trifecta Thursdays: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25) on any winning trifecta ticket.
• Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll: Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show bets) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Picks and plays

Arlington Park, Race 5: Maiden special weight (five furlongs on turf, 5:35 p.m. ET)

#4 Better Think Twice (9-2) produced a solid effort on debut over the Arlington Polytrack last month. Despite a poorl break, Better Think Twice rallied down the lane to finish third in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for Illinois-breds. The winner, One Putt Richie, returned to dominate his next start by five lengths.

Better Think Twice will face more challenging circumstances Thursday. Not only will he switch to turf, but he will step up into open company. The 69 Brisnet Speed rating Better Think Twice earned on debut is competitive, but he is a sibling to a half-dozen turf winners. Throw in the fact Arlington’s leading jockey, Jareth Loveberry, will take over the mount, and I think we have a recipe for victory.

To capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Better Think Twice. Then we’ll play him on top of a trifecta, with #1 Poquito Man (7-2), #6 Kosher Cowboy (5-2), and #8 Rave On (3-1) underneath. It’s a good way to pursue the Bet and Get at Arlington Park promotion.

$10 to win on #4 Better Think Twice
$1 trifecta: 4 with 1,6,8 with 1,6,8 ($6)
Total: $16

Belmont Park, Race 2: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 3:38 p.m. ET)

#1 Grand Ave Girl (2-1), an unraced daughter of Runhappy, is the morning-line favorite for four-time champion trainer Chad Brown. But Runhappy has sired just 3% winners from first-time starters, and Brown has just three wins from 39 starts (8%) with debuting three-year-olds over the Belmont dirt since 2016.

We’ll take a shot against Grand Ave Girl with #4 Beautitful Farewell (9-2). The Michael Stidham trainee started twice last summer, when she finished third in her debut against males at Belmont and came home fifth in a Saratoga maiden race for fillies. The latter effort was better than it first appears, as Beautiful Farewell didn’t get the cleanest trip in the homestretch but nevertheless finished just 2 1/2 lengths behind the future Grade 1-placed winner Lady Lilly.

Beautiful Farewell has posted an encouraging series of workouts in preparation for her return, and Stidham strikes at a 19% rate with horses off a layoff of 90 day or more, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. Throw in the fact Beautiful Farewell is racing on Lasix for the first time (a 23% winning move for Stidham), and she is worth playing on top at a fair price.

$15 to win on #1 Grand Ave Girl
$5 exacta: 1 with 1,5,6 ($15)
Total: $30

Churchill Downs, Race 2: $50,000 maiden claiming (six furlongs, 5:29 p.m. ET)

#10 Deemed Essential (9-2) owns the three highest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field (capped off by an 83), but two were achieved in longer races, and her latest efforts haven’t been as quick.

After she faded to finish seventh in a one-mile maiden special weight over the Churchill Downs turf course, Deemed Essential tackled a $50,000 maiden claiming sprint over the Churchill dirt, but could only finish third, with a 68 Brisnet Speed rating.

If Deemed Essential is regressing, then #4 Bizzy Echo (7-2) — the second-fastest filly on paper — can steal the show. The daughter of Dialed In has competed exclusively in maiden special weight sprints and earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 75, 64, and 70 in her first three runs. The drop to the maiden claiming ranks can make Bizzy Echo dangerous under hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione, Churchill’s leading rider, with 43 wins this meet.

To take advantage of the Churchill Downs Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Bizzy Echo. Then we’ll play her over Deemed Essential and #11 Toccata (8-1) in a small exacta.

$10 to win on #4 Bizzy Echo
$2 exacta: 4 with 10,11 ($4)
Total: $14

Carryover watch

Arlington Park, Race 1: $108,719 Pick 8 carryover (3:29 p.m. ET)

Day after day, week after week, bettors have endeavored to construct winning tickets for the 20-cent Pick 8 at Arlington Park. Time and time again, they’ve fallen short. No one has assembled a winning ticket since May 29, which is why the carryover for the non-jackpot wager has climbed to $108,719 for Thursday’s card.

The most recent day of racing took place Sunday, when favorites went winless in the sequence, and Pick 8 tickets with seven winners returned $1,129.12 apiece. This impressive day of upsets was also sufficient to trigger Thursday carryovers of $5,942 for the Pick 6 (which starts in Race 2) and $2,471 for the Pick 7 (which kicks off in Race 3).

Planning to chase one or more of the carryovers? To help you get started, here are a handful of horses worth betting (or opposing) throughout the afternoon.

Best single: Race 4, #4 Dive Deep (5-2)

Leading trainer Larry Rivelli (a 39% winner at the meet) will saddle two in this 5 1/2-furlong, $12,500 turf claimer, with Dive Deep the one to beat.

The son of Midshipman recently returned from a long layoff to wire a five-furlong, $20,000 claimer over the Arlington turf course, and Rivelli strikes at a 50% rate with horses who drop in class off a victory. Loveberry (a 41% winner when teaming up with Rivelli) is named to ride, so Dive Deep looks like the most probable winner on the card. Only his stablemate, #7 Fixico (7-2), appears capable to put up a fight.

Vulnerable favorite: Race 7, #7 Naval Laughter (7-5)

It’s easy to see why Naval Laughter is a heavy favorite to win this one-mile turf allowance. She was tons the best to break her maiden at Arlington three weeks ago, when she drew off under a hand ride to dominate by 19 3/4 lengths.

But Naval Laughter benefited from setting easy fractions of :24.08, :48.25, and 1:13.33 over the Polytrack course, and there’s no telling if she can replicate her blowout victory in a transition to turf. Proven turf performers #3 Slime Queen (4-1) and #4 Fate Factor (4-1) might be just as likely to visit the winner’s circle.

Live longshot: Race 8, #4 Dramatic Kitten (15-1)

Dramatic Kitten never fired in a $12,500 claimer over the Arlington Polytrack 12 days ago, but the son of Kitten’s Joy previously rallied to victory in a pair of claimers over the turf course at Gulfstream Park.

A step up to the $20,000 claiming level at Arlington is a question mark for Dramatic Kitten, but there should be enough pace in this 12-horse field to enhance his late rally, and his best Brisnet Speed rating is fast enough to compete.

Good luck!