Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for June 25

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, June 25 at Belmont Park and Churchill Downs, along with potential singles for a pair of lucrative carryovers at Belmont and Woodbine.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Churchill Downs Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Eagle Farm (Australia).

Picks and plays

Belmont Park, Race 3: Allowance (1 1/16 miles, 2:02 p.m. ET)

#1 Union Gables (6-1) has been running on turf lately, and even competed in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), but the daughter of Speightstown is bred top and bottom to handle dirt and showed promise over the Saratoga main track as a juvenile.

Union Gables won her debut with a sharp late rally, then stepped up in class for the seven-furlong P. G. Johnson S., where she finished third, behind future graded stakes winners Simply Ravishing and Con Lima. 

A return to dirt can help Union Gables bounce back to the winner’s circle in her second start of 2021. Trainer Todd Pletcher wins at a 23% rate with horses who switch from turf to dirt, and three-time champion jockey Irad Ortiz is named to ride.

#2 Subsidiary (6-1) and #4 Good Credence (9-5) can battle to complete the exacta.

$18 to win on #1 Union Gables
$4 exacta: 1 with 2,4 ($8)
Total: $26

Churchill Downs, Race 5: Maiden special weight (1 1/8 miles on turf, 2:45 p.m. ET)

#2 Eyes On Target (2-1) should be tough to beat in this two-turn turf heat.

The son of Preakness (G1) winner Exaggerator ran strongly in his debut over this course and distance last month, when he finished second by just a half-length. If not for a slow start, Eyes On Target might have pulled out the win.

As a half-brother to Mozu Superflare (a Group 1 winner on turf in Japan), Eyes on Target is bred to excel on grass and improve with maturity. Trainer Bill Mott wins at a 16% rate with second-time starters, so there’s a chance Eyes On Target will improve in his second start. He has trained forwardly since his debut and most recently breezed a half-mile in :47 4/5.

With hot jockey Florent Geroux in the saddle, Eyes On Target is worth playing on top. Thanks to the Churchill Downs Bet Back promotion, we can place a $10 win bet and receive a refund if he settles for second or third.

For exacta tickets, we’ll toss in the well-bred #6 Tonal Impact (20-1) and the consistent duo of #7 Nineeleventurbo (7-2) and #9 Alexander Valley (9-2).

$10 to win on #2 Eyes On Target
$4 exacta: 2 with 6,7,9 ($12)
Total: $22

Churchill Downs, Race 10: Kelly’s Landing S. (seven furlongs, 5:26 p.m. ET)

Last year’s Blue Grass S. (G2) winner #9 Art Collector (7-5) is the big favorite, and understandably so. The son of Bernardini is the most accomplished runner in the field and won back to-back allowance races over the Churchill main track during the spring of 2020, including one at seven furlongs.

But Art Collector’s best efforts (and strongest Brisnet Speed ratings) have come in two-turn races, and he hasn’t faced the starter since November. If Art Collector produces something less than his maximum effort on the cut back in distance off the layoff, #7 Aloha West (8-1) can steal the show.

Trained by Wayne Catalano (a 20% winner in ungraded stakes), Aloha West is a lightly raced four-year-old with just four starts under his belt. He first showed talent in his debut, a six-furlong sprint at Oaklawn, where he unleashed a monstrous mid-race move to overcame a slow start and prevail by three-quarters of a length.

Following a couple of deceptively strong defeats against allowance company, Aloha West traveled to Churchill Downs and obliterated a seven-furlong allowance sprint, where he roared from off the pace to dominate by five lengths under a hand ride. The 101 Brisnet Late Pace rating he received is eye-catching, and I’m optimistic the son of Hard Spun still has plenty of upside.

To take advantage of the Churchill Downs Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Aloha West, then play him over Art Collector and #6 Bango (9-2) in exacta and trifecta bets.

$10 to win on #7 Aloha West
$4 exacta: 7 with 6,9 ($8)
$2 trifecta: 7 with 6,9 with 6,9 ($4)
Total: $22

Carryover watch

Belmont Park, Race 4: $52,383 Pick 6 carryover (2:31 p.m. ET)

As one of relatively few North American racetracks that offers a traditional Pick 6, rather than a jackpot Pick 6, it’s always a special day when Belmont Park comes up with a Pick 6 carryover. Such will be the case Friday, when the $1 wager offers a $52,383 carryover pool to be split among all winning bettors.

Finding a single is a good way to keep costs reasonable, and #2 Amy C (2-1) in Race 8 seems like a logical choice. The British-bred filly has shown promise over synthetic tracks in France, where she finished second in her debut, then won a 7 1/2-furlong event at Deauville by 2 1/4 lengths. The runner-up, Wooturn, returned to win her next start and place in a listed stakes.

On Friday, Amy C will make her U.S. debut for four-time champion trainer Chad Brown, who thrives with European imports. The switch to turf and stretch out to 1 1/16 miles against allowance company should be right up Amy C’s alley. I think she’ll be tough to beat under Ortiz.

Woodbine, Race 2: $66,196.29 (USD) Pick 5 carryover (5:20 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of Friday’s Pick 5 carryover at Woodbine, you better be prepared to spend some cash and consider some creative longshots.

The sequence for the 20-cent wager looks imposing. A total of 46 horses (an average of 9.2 per race) are entered, with many of them unraced since the last Woodbine meet ended in November. That’s a challenging set of circumstances to handicap, which might be why Thursday’s eight-race card produced six winners at 5-1 or higher, including major longshots at 25-1 and 27-1.

Finding a reliable single is difficult, but I’m tempted to view #1 Dancing Derek (2-1) in Race 3 as a horse to count on. The six-year-old gelding only ran once last year, but it was a solid effort. He wired a $5,000 claimer Nov. 6 at Woodbine and earned a competitive 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

But the main reason I’m interested in Dancing Derek is the fact he’s trained by Martin Drexler, a high-percentage trainer who has a 4-4-4 record from 15 starters at the Woodbine meet. Three of Drexler’s winners ran back for the first time since Woodbine’s last meet, so it’s clear his entrants have been primed for peak efforts.

Dancing Derek has been busy in morning training. He has cranked out a dozen workouts since the beginning of April, so I suspect he’ll fire a big effort off the layoff and prove tough to beat from the rail draw.

Good luck!