Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for June 29

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, June 29 at Canterbury Park and Indiana Grand, including a ticket for Canterbury’s $8,116 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Canterbury Park and Parx Racing.
• Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll: Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show bets) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.
• $5,000 Pick 5 Indiana Derby Jackpot: Hit Pick 5 wagers at Indiana Grand this week to earn shares toward a $5,000 jackpot awarded to players who hit Pick 5 wagers on Indiana Derby day, July 7.

Picks and plays

Canterbury Park, Race 3: Maiden special weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 7:10 p.m. ET)

This maiden dash for Minnesota-bred juveniles looks ripe for conquest by #4 Overseas Letter (5-2).

A son of champion two-year-old Shanghai Bobby, Overseas Letter has turned in four promising workouts in preparation for his debut, including a five-furlong drill from the Canterbury starting gate in 1:00 3/5.

Trainer Joel Berndt has compiled a terrific 7-4-7 record from 28 starts (28%) with debut juveniles on dirt at Canterbury since 2016, so there is no reason to think Overseas Letter won’t fire a sharp shot right out of the gate.

To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Overseas Action, then play him over #7 Nu Nu (4-1) in a small exacta.

$10 to win on #4 Overseas Letter
$5 exacta: 4 with 7
Total: $15

Canterbury Park, Race 4: Maiden special weight (one mile, 7:40 p.m. ET)

Canterbury’s all-time leading trainer, McLean Robertson, has eight wins from 31 starts (26%) with debuting three-year-olds over the Canterbury main track since 2016, which includes a win with his only starter on debut in a dirt route.

These stats suggest Robertson’s first-time starter #2 Jeepster (9-2) will be dangerous in Tuesday’s fourth race at Canterbury.

A son of Tapiture, who sires 15% winners from first-time starters, Jeepster has cranked out 13 timed workouts since March, including seven at Canterbury. His recent works have been quick, including a bullet five furlongs in :59.59 June 7. This exercise was achieved “handily,” or without urging, which suggests Jeepster is a talented prospect.

#5 Fallen Empire (5-2) is a logical favorite, after he placed twice in maiden special weight sprints at Canterbury.

But since Jeepster is a better price on the morning line, we’ll favor the first-time starter with a $10 win bet, to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer. Then we’ll play Jeepster over Fallen Empire and #4 Well Read (3-1) on exacta and trifecta tickets.

$10 to win on #2 Jeepster
$4 exacta: 2 with 4,5 ($8)
$1 trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with 4,5 ($2)
Total: $20

Indiana Grand, Race 8: Allowance/optional claiming (five furlongs on turf, 6:02 p.m. ET)

There’s a ton of speed in this five-furlong dash for fillies and mares, which might compromise the rail-drawn, morning-line favorite #1 Ollie’s Gold (9-5), who carved out a modest tempo to break her maiden over this distance less than three weeks ago.

We’ll take a shot with #6 Lost Wish (10-1).

In her debut, a six-furlong sprint over the synthetic track at Turfway Park, Lost Wish pressed hot fractions of :21.90 and :44.99, kicked away to clear lead in midstretch, and then dug deep to win by a nose. She was the only speed horse to survive the intense pace.

Lost Wish failed to fire in a six-furlong dirt allowance at Churchill last month, but she is eligible to rebound on the switch to turf. Sire Mshawish was a Grade 1 winner on grass, and damsire Distorted Humor has produced many high-class turf horses through his daughters, including Hong Kong Triple Crown winner Golden Sixty.

Let’s place a win bet on Lost Wish and call it a day.

$25 to win on #6 Lost Wish

Carryover watch

Canterbury Park, Race 3: $8,116 Pick 6 carryover (7:10 p.m. ET)

Forgive me if I sound like a broken record, but if you’re not planning to play Tuesday’s $8,116 Pick 6 carryover at Canterbury Park, you’re missing out.

The $1 wager features a 10% takeout rate, which makes it one of the most value-oriented bets available in Thoroughbred racing.

The Pick 6 kicks off in Race 3, so we can use our plays listed above to assemble the start of our sequence.

We’ll take a shot singling #4 Overseas Letter (5-2) in the opener, then play #2 Jeepster (9-2), #4 Well Read (3-1), and #5 Fallen Empire (5-2) in the second leg.

Race 5 is a competitive $4,000 claiming sprint, but rather than spread deep, we’ll single #8 Flash Attack (5-2). The seven-year-old veteran is versatile in running style and should be tough to deny on the drop from the $7,500 claiming level for high-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro.

Race 6 is a $16,000 maiden claimer at 1 1/16 miles on the turf course. Diodoro has a live contender in #2 Paynter’s Love (7-2), who has cracked the trifecta in two of her three starts against $30,000 company at Santa Anita. But the daughter of Paynter has never run on turf, so #8 She’s Xtremely Hot (5-2) — runner-up for a $25,000 tag in her turf debut at Canterbury — is also worth using. Trainer McLean Robertson wins at a 28% rate with second-time turf starters.

Race 7, a $5,000 claimer, looks like the toughest leg of the sequence. A dozen runners have been entered in the one-mile event, and it is tough to split them. We’ll try to get by with just four — #1 Holy Muchacho (6-1), #8 Thirtyminutemass (3-1), #10 Irish Charlie (9-2), and #11 Jewel Azul (6-1).

Fortunately, the final leg of the Pick 6 looks more straightforward. We should be able to survive Race 8, a 5 1/2-furlong allowance, with logical favorites #4 Sailing Along (5-2) and #8 Midnight Current (7-2), alongside frontrunner #5 Haddy Up (5-1). Since 53% of 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprints at Canterbury are won in gate-to-wire fashion, the likely pacesetter is worth including.

$1 Pick 6: 4 with 2,4,5 with 8 with 2,8 with 1,8,10,11 with 4,5,8 ($72)

Good luck!