Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for June 30

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, June 30 at Canterbury Park and Indiana Grand, along with thoughts on a pair of carryovers at Indiana Grand and Gulfstream Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Indiana Grand.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Sha Tin (Hong Kong).
• Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll: Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show bets) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.
• $5,000 Pick 5 Indiana Derby Jackpot: Hit Pick 5 wagers at Indiana Grand this week to earn shares toward a $5,000 jackpot awarded to players who hit Pick 5 wagers on Indiana Derby Day, July 7.

Picks and plays

Canterbury Park, Race 1: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs, 6:10 p.m. ET)

Canterbury’s all-time leading trainer, McLean Robertson, has an impressive record with debut three-year-olds over the Canterbury main track. Since 2016, he has eight wins from 32 starts with such runners, which stamps #5 Just Plain Pretty (7-2) as a live contender in Wednesday's opener.

A daughter of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Mucho Macho Man, Just Plain Pretty has assembled an impressive work tab at Canterbury. On June 13, she breezed a half-mile from the starting gate in :46 3/5. Ten days later, she went five furlongs from the gate in 1:00 3/5.

Jockey Alex Canchari (a 21% winner when he teams with Robertson) is named to ride, so let’s bet Just Plain Pretty to win and play her over #7 Celtics Wildcat (5-2) and #2 Sundance Star (3-1) in cold exacta and trifecta wagers.

$18 to win on #5 Just Plain Pretty
$8 exacta: 5 with 7
$4 trifecta: 5 with 7 with 2
Total: $30

Indiana Grand, Race 1: Allowance (six furlongs, 2:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Assertive Style (9-2) might not be the fastest entrant in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, but she is certainly the quickest when it comes to Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings. The daughter of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist has serious speed, but she is also tractable enough to stalk the pace.

Assertive Style finished third in her first two starts at Indiana Grand this season against tough company. In her 2021 debut, she came home just 1 1/2 lengths behind next-out stakes winner Hungarian Princess.

Trainer Rey Hernandez has been hot at Indiana Grand this year, with a 31% win rate, so let’s take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back promotion and place a $10 win bet on Assertive Style. We’ll also play her over #2 Stellar Grace (7-2) in the exacta.

$10 to win on #4 Assertive Style
$4 exacta: 4 with 2 ($4)
Total: $14

Indiana Grand, Race 7: Checkered Flag S. (six furlongs, 5:31 p.m. ET)

#9 Hungarian Princess (2-1) is the morning-line favorite, but from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, she isn't the fastest filly in Wednesday’s field.

#6 Ever Wonder (8-1) has been running significantly faster. Whereas Hungarian Princess has never earned a figure higher than 81, Ever Wonder has posted figures between 81 and 97 in her last six dirt starts.

So why is Ever Wonder 8-1 on the morning line? She has been beaten in all three of her runs this season. But one was a turf sprint, and the other two were solid runner-up efforts against allowance company at Indiana Grand. The winners were the Grade 2-placed Auberge and stakes winner Krunch, so it’s safe to say Ever Wonder faced good company.

To capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Ever Wonder. Then we’ll play her over the favorite in the exacta.

$10 to win on #6 Ever Wonder
$6 exacta: 6 with 9 ($6)
Total: $16

Carryover watch

Indiana Grand, Race 4: $1,857 Super High 5 carryover (3:58 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of the $1,857 "Grand High 5" carryover at Indiana Grand, you’ll have to correctly dissect a rather tricky race.

The prize pool for the 10-cent wager is up for grabs in Race 4, a six-furlong, $10,000 maiden claimer for Indiana-bred fillies and mares. #1 Corsidat (5-2) tops the Brisnet Prime Power rankings, which isn’t surprising, since she has placed in five of her seven starts against maiden special weight company. Surely the three-year-old filly will be tough to beat in a maiden claimer for the first time?

But Corsidat completely misfired in her most recent start, when she finished fourth by 20 lengths in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Indiana Grand. Was that disappointing effort a fluke, or a sign Corsidat is regressing?

Perhaps we should oppose Corsidat — at least on top of our tickets — with #3 Justa Doll (5-1). The daughter of Grade 1-winning sprinter Justin Phillip has some tactical speed and wasn’t disgraced in a $30,000 maiden claimer at Indiana Grand last month, when she finished fourth after a tracking trip. The drop down the class ladder can help Justa Doll produce a career-best effort at a fair price.

Gulfstream Park, Race 3: $26,530 Pick 6 mandatory payout (1:58 p.m. ET)

Florida’s 2020-2021 fiscal year wraps up June 30, which means the Wednesday card at Gulfstream Park features a mandatory payout of the $26,530 Rainbow Pick 6 carryover.

The 20-cent wager gets underway in Race 3 (post time 1:54 p.m. ET), and as far as Pick 6 sequences go, it appears manageable. Just 46 horses (7.7 per race) have been entered, and it shouldn’t be too difficult to identify a solid single or two.

One of the best options is #3 Doc Amster (2-1) in Race 6, a $50,000 allowance/optional claimer. Doc Amster has been in hot form since he was claimed by high-percentage trainer Saffie Joseph, a 24% winner at Gulfstream this meet. First, the speedy son of Midshipman finished second in a six-furlong allowance at Tampa Bay Downs, where he was beaten a nose and split next-out winners Baby Boomer and Phase Out. Doc Amster came back to win a six-furlong Gulfstream allowance, where he edged next-out winner Kalu by a neck.

The latter effort produced a 95 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest last-out figure posted by any runner in this six-horse field. Doc Amster also looms as the most likely pacesetter, and there’s a chance he’ll shake loose on an easy lead under jockey Edgard Zayas. Over the last two months, Zayas and Joseph have teamed to win at a 40% rate, which suggests Doc Amster is a runner worth singling Wednesday.

Good luck!