Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 10

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, March 10 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including a trio of exactas.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Fair Grounds.
• Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Boden (SWE), Gavle (SWE), or Aby (SWE).
• Thursday Pick 5 Winsurance: Play the early Pick 5 at Woodbine Mohawk and receive a Winsurance refund of 25% (up to $25 total) if your ticket fails to win. Offer applies to your first Pick 5 wager that meets or exceeds $24 in cost.
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Turfway Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 8: $17,500 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 3/8 miles on turf, 5:36 p.m. ET)

#5 Jarreau (2-1) hasn’t won in a while, but he’s also been facing tougher competition than he’ll encounter at Fair Grounds. Three starts back, Jarreau ran fourth in the two-mile H. Allen Jerkens S. over the Gulfstream Park turf course. And four starts back, Jarreau ran second in a 1 3/8-mile grass allowance at Aqueduct, beaten only by future two-time stakes winner Abaan.

Jarreau arrives at Fair Grounds off a pair of third-place finishes in $35,000 allowance optional claimers over the Gulfstream main track, so regardless of whether Thursday’s heat is contested on grass or rained off the turf, Jarreau should be formidable.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Jarreau. Then we’ll key him on top in the exacta.

• $10 to win on #5 Jarreau
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 1,6 ($10)
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 6: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 8:46 p.m. ET)

#2 Musical Cat (2-1) has been running well against maiden special weight company over the Turfway Park Tapeta track. On Dec. 31, she rallied to finish third in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint. On Feb. 11, she issued a challenge before flattening out to run fifth in a one-mile event.

Cutting back to six furlongs and dropping down to the $30,000 maiden claiming level should be sufficient to trigger a victory from Musical Cat. Her Brisnet Speed ratings are strong, and trainer Brendan Walsh wins at a 23% rate with horses dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company.

#7 Watermark (3-1), beaten a nose over this track and class level on Feb. 10, can complete a cold $10 exacta capitalizing on the Exacta Insurance promotion.

• $25 to win on #2 Musical Cat
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 7
  Total: $35

Turfway Park: Race 7: $50,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile on Tapeta, 9:16 p.m. ET)

#4 Sugoi (5-1) was a rock-solid competitor back in 2020, winning five times over five different tracks and three different surfaces (dirt, turf, and synthetic). Four of his wins came at the allowance level, and three were achieved at double-digit odds.

Sugoi has struggled a bit since then; after finishing fourth in the April 29 Opening Verse S. at Churchill Downs, he wasn’t seen again until Dec. 3, when he ran second in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Turfway Park. Then—following a 2 1/2-month break—Sugoi finished last of seven in the Feb. 19 Dust Commander S. at Turfway.

The latter effort was well below par for Sugoi, but running back less than three weeks later is a positive sign. If Sugoi bounces back to his Dec. 3 level, he can factor against Thursday’s caliber of competition. And if he returns to his 2020 form, he can win at a solid price.

Let’s bet Sugoi to win, then key him over Dust Commander S. runner-up #6 Mr Dumas (5-2) in a $10 exacta taking advantage of the Exacta Insurance promotion.

• $20 to win on #4 Sugoi
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 6
  Total: $30

Good luck!