Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 11

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, March 11 at Santa Anita and Turfway Park, along with a pair of suggested singles for the $24,264 Pick 5 carryover at Charles Town.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Turf Paradise. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Solvalla (SWE), Odense (SWE), Bollnas (SWE), or Biri (SWE).
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Sha Tin (Hong Kong).
• $15,000 Australian Autumn Carnival Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at a selected Australian track for a chance to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot. Promotion runs every Friday from March 4 through April 8.

Picks and Plays

Santa Anita Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:59 p.m. ET)

#2 Area Code (7-5) and #1 Heaven’s Music  (8-5) are the morning line favorites in this maiden sprint for California-breds. But Area Code is switching surfaces off a fifth-place finish in his debut on turf, and Heaven’s Music seems more likely to settle for a minor award after compiling a 9-0-5-1 resume so far.

Let’s try to beat the favorites with the first-time starter #3 Grazen Sun (7-2). The three-year-old gelding breezed a sharp half-mile in :47 4/5 earlier this week, and trainer Luis Mendez has gone 4-for-20 (20% debuting male horses in dirt sprints at Santa Anita since 2017.

In addition to a win bet on Grazen Sun, we’ll bet him over Area Code and Heaven’s Music in the exacta and trifecta.

• $15 to win on #3 Grazen Sun
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 1,2 ($10)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 3 with 1,2 with 1,2 ($5)
  Total: $30

Santa Anita: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 5:02 p.m. ET)

#2 Micro Share (4-5) has shown promise in her first two starts against maiden special weight company. After overcoming a slow start to rally and finish third in her debut sprinting at Del Mar, Micro Share stepped up over one mile and finished second at Santa Anita, beaten only by next-out Las Virgenes S. (G3) winner Adare Manor.

These efforts produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 86, stamping Micro Share as the fastest filly in Friday’s field. If she runs her typical race under Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, Micro Share can win for fun over #6 Sweet Talked (2-1).

• $25 Exacta: 2 with 6

Turfway Park: Race 7: $30,000 Starter Allowance (one mile on Tapeta, 9:16 p.m. ET)

Many of the entrants in this starter allowance are last-out maiden breakers facing proven winners for the first time. Rather than support one of these up-and-comers, we’ll favor the stakes-experienced #9 Zoombie (7-2).

Victorious in a maiden special weight over the Presque Isle Downs Tapeta track last fall, Zoombie ran strongly in his Turfway debut last month, finishing second in a $30,000 claimer after leading into the homestretch. This effort produced a solid 78 Brisnet Speed rating, suggesting Zoombie is the horse to beat on Friday.

#2 Slim Slow Slider (6-1), who finished 1 1/2 lengths behind Zoombie when third in the $30,000 claimer at Turfway, can complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #9 Zoombie
• $10 Exacta: 9 with 2
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Charles Town, Race 4: $24,264 Pick 5 carryover (8:32 p.m. ET)

If you’re in the mood for some late-night carryover action, Charles Town is ready to oblige. The West Virginia bullring racetrack has tossed up an enticing $24,264 non-jackpot carryover for the 50-cent wager, which carries a low 12% takeout rate.

Planning to play along? We’ve identified a pair of possible singles to help you get started:

Race 6: Allowance (seven furlongs): #5 River Crosroad Rvf (4-5)

With his 13-6-3-0 lifetime record at Charles Town, it’s clear River Crosroad Rvf has an affinity for this bullring oval. And his affinity has become even more pronounced in recent months—the five-year-old gelding has rattled off three straight allowance victories at Charles Town by margins of 4 3/4 lengths, four lengths, and 5 3/4 lengths.

Speed is River Crosroad Rvf’s greatest weapon. He’s set the pace or dueled for command in each of his last three wins, a tactical advantage since 37% of seven-furlong sprints at Charles Town are won in gate-to-wire fashion. River Crosroad Rvf has also run fast in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, with his three recent victories producing figures of 87, 86, and 81.

If River Crosroad Rvf runs his typical race on Friday, he’ll be tough to beat under ultra-hot jockey Arnaldo Bocachica, a 34% winner at Charles Town this meet.

Race 7: Allowance (6 1/2 furlongs) #4 San Antone (8-5)

San Antone may have misfired in a six-furlong allowance at Laurel Park last month, finishing fifth at odds of 9-5. But the four-year-old gelding was only beaten two lengths, and he figures to be formidable while returning to the Charles Town allowance ranks.

San Antone competed twice over this track and class level earlier this winter, each time finishing second by less than a length. These gallant defeats produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 82, which rank among the best recent figures posted by any of the horses in Friday’s field.

As a stretch runner, San Antone is somewhat at the mercy of the early pace. But there’s a fair amount of speed in this allowance field, and San Antone isn’t completely lacking in tactical speed himself, so San Antone should have every chance to deliver a breakthrough victory as a short-priced single.

Good luck!