Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 14

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $90 worth of picks and plays for Monday, March 14 at Turf Paradise, including trios of win bets and exactas.

Picks and Plays

Turf Paradise: Race 2: $4,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 4:52 p.m. ET)

#2 Hermano (5-2) has been in sharp form at Turf Paradise. The seven-year-old gelding is a nose and a head away from having crossed the wire first in four consecutive sprints, including a $6,250 starter optional claimer over 6 1/2 furlongs.

Hermano has tactical speed and brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the fold, so he’ll have every chance to get out in front and cruise home on top while dropping down to the $4,000 claiming level.

We’ll bet Hermano to win, then key him over #4 Upper Room (7-2) in a cold exacta.

• $20 to win on #2 Hermano
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 4
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 5: Allowance (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 6:13 p.m. ET)

#7 Ax Man (4-1) has won a couple of stakes through the years and even placed twice at the graded level. The seven-year-old speedster has yet to win on turf, but he didn’t run badly by any means in the Turf Paradise Turf over this course last month. Racing 1 1/16 miles in his local debut, Ax Man carved out the pace before weakening in the final furlong to finish fifth.

Dropping down in class and distance can send Ax Man to the winner’s circle in his second start for trainer Dan McFarlane, a 22% winner with turf starters.

In addition to a win bet on Ax Man, we’ll play him over #2 Hard to Deny (3-1) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #7 Ax Man
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 2
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 7: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (6 1/2 furlongs, 7:07 p.m. ET)

The delicate seven-year-old #5 Son of Smalls (5-2) has only run eight times, and it’s possible he’s found the right spot to break his maiden. True, Son of Smalls is ascending the class ladder, but he put up solid Brisnet Speed ratings when finishing second in a pair of $3,500 maiden claimers at Turf Paradise earlier this winter.

Son of Smalls was claimed on Feb. 1 by Jonathan Wong, who wins at a lofty 29% rate with new claiming acquisitions. Son of Smalls has since posted sharp workouts at Turf Paradise, including a swift half-mile in :59 3/5, so all signs suggest he’s sitting on a winning run.

#1 Winning Magic (4-1) and #7 Jungle Roar (7-2) are logical contenders for the minor awards.

• $20 to win on #5 Son of Smalls
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 1,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Good luck!