Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 15

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, March 15 at Mahoning Valley, Turf Paradise, and Sunland Park, including a pair of 8-1 longshots.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing.
• Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta tickets.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 3: Allowance (one mile, 1:40 p.m. ET)

In a field without much speed on paper, #1 Scarlett’s Awish (8-1) has a chance to shake loose up front. The daughter of Mshawish has set the pace in three of her last four starts and has proven particularly effective racing one mile, crossing the wire first, second, or third in all three of her starts over this distance.

Scarlett’s Awish faded to eighth after setting the pace in a six-furlong allowance at Mahoning Valley last month, so setting a slower pace over a longer trip should be to her benefit. Trainer Richard Zielinski wins at a solid 16% rate with horses transitioning from sprints to routes, and the rail post has produced an impressive 23% winners over one mile at Mahoning this meet.

We’ll bet Scarlett’s Awish to win, then key her over #5 Flatter Her Again (2-1) and #8 Crikey (3-1) in the exacta and trifecta.

• $20 to win on #1 Scarlett’s Awish
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 5,8 ($10)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 1 with 5,8 with 5,8 ($5)
  Total: $35

Turf Paradise: Race 1: $12,500 Claiming (one mile, 4:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Impression (9-5) is shipping in from the Southern California circuit, where he’s cracked the trifecta in seven of his last eight starts. He was especially sharp in a $12,500 claimer over 1 1/16 miles at Santa Anita last March, finishing second by one length.

Impression hasn’t run in nearly a year, but he’s turned in solid workouts in preparation for his return, and trainer Kristin Mulhall (1-for-1 at Turf Paradise this meet) wins at an excellent 22% rate with horses returning from long layoffs. In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, a typical performance from Impression is fast enough to beat Tuesday’s field, so if Impression brings his A-game off the layoff, he can prevail under hot jockey Harry Hernandez.

#5 Family Biz (6-1) and #6 Gage Has a Gray (8-1) can battle for the minor awards.

• $20 to win on #1 Impression
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 5,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Sunland Park: Race 10: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs, 6:26 p.m. ET)

#4 Probate (8-1) stumbled sharply in traffic during the early stages of a five-furlong maiden special weight on Feb. 25 at Sunland Park. Despite losing several lengths of ground, Probate re-rallied to finish second with a solid 66 Brisnet Speed rating.

The morning line favorite in Tuesday’s heat is #2 Illuminate D Storm (3-1), who actually finished a half-length behind Probate on Feb. 25. Assuming Probate gets a clean trip on Tuesday, he can maintain his edge over Illuminate D Storm and spring an upset.

• $25 to win on #4 Probate
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 2
  Total: $35

Good luck!