Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 16

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Wednesday, March 16 at Tampa Bay Downs, Gulfstream Park, and Fair Grounds, including exactas and trifectas.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Fair Grounds.
• Cheltenham Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in eligible races at Cheltenham (UK).
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).
• Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Jarlsberg (SWE), Solvalla (SWE), or Jagersro (SWE).

Picks and Plays

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 2: $20,000 Starter Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 12:43 p.m. ET)

After winning four straight races on the Ohio circuit last spring and summer, #1 Machismo (6-5) traveled to Kentucky and hit the board in a trio of $20,000 starter allowances at Churchill Downs and Keeneland. Two of those efforts produced game runner-up finishes.

Machismo has posted 90+ Brisnet Speed ratings in five of his last six starts, stamping the seven-year-old gelding as the horse to beat at Tampa Bay Downs. Machismo hasn’t run since November, but high-percentage trainer David Wolochuk wins at a 30% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. Throw in the presence of hot jockey Pablo Morales (a 23% winner at Tampa), and Machismo looks tough to beat.

#2 Baby Boomer (5-1), #3 Arcadia Calls (3-1), and #4 Expensive Style (7-2) can battle for spots in the exacta and trifecta.

• $10 Exacta: 1 with 2
• $5 Trifecta: 1 with 2 with 3,4 ($10)
• $5 Trifecta: 1 with 3,4 with 2 ($10)
  Total: $30

Gulfstream Park: Race 3: Allowance (about 5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, 2:07 p.m. ET)

#2 Veloce Bella (6-1) was tons the best in a $16,000 maiden claimer over this track and distance last month, leading by daylight at every call on her way to a 5 3/4-length victory. This effort produced a respectable 76 Brisnet Speed rating, and strength of the race was indicated when distant third-place finisher Lets Run Two returned to win her next start.

Veloce Bella is stepping up in class, but squaring off against fellow Florida-breds—after facing unrestricted company in her debut—can help offset the ascent. If Veloce Bella shakes loose up front in this small field, she may prove difficult to run down.

We’ll bet Veloce Bella to win, then play her over #4 Firenspice (7-2) and #6 Bunnynotbeast (3-1) in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #2 Veloce Bella
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 4,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles, 5:05 p.m. ET)

#4 Clairiere (4-5) has hit he board in nine consecutive Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes, including the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1). The daughter of Curlin scored her signatures victory in the 1 1/16-mile Cotillion S. (G1) and is surely poised for a strong four-year-old campaign.

However, Clairiere is returning from a layoff, and her stretch-running style can leave her at the mercy of the pace. It’s worth noting she’s settled for a minor award in six of her last seven starts, so Clairiere—though clearly talented—hasn’t been a winning machine.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on #3 Super Quick (9-2). The four-year-old filly was in hot form on the Kentucky circuit last fall, rattling off three consecutive victories against increasingly tough competition. She capped off the season by winning a $100,000 allowance optional claimer over 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs by 5 1/2 lengths.

All three of Super Quick’s victories have been achieved in gate-to-wire fashion, so if a slow pace unfolds on Wednesday, she’ll have every opportunity to spring a surprise over Clairiere.

• $10 to win on #3 Super Quick
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 4
  Total: $15

Good luck!