Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 17

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, March 17 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including a ticket for Turfway’s $1,559 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Turfway Park.
• Cheltenham Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in eligible races at Cheltenham (UK).
• Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Orebro (SWE), Gavle (SWE), or Aby (SWE).
• Thursday Pick 5 Winsurance: Play the early Pick 5 at Woodbine Mohawk and receive a Winsurance refund of 25% (up to $25 total) if your ticket fails to win. Offer applies to your first Pick 5 wager that meets or exceeds $24 in cost.
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Remington Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 6:07 p.m. ET)

#2 Mr Elvin (5-2) faded to finish fourth by a wide margin in a one-mile event over this track and class level on Feb. 12. But the son of Court Vision had previously hit the board in three straight six-furlong maiden special weights at Fair Grounds, even finishing second on a couple of occasions.

With a trio of 70+ Brisnet Speed ratings under his belt, Mr Elvin is consistently fast enough to beat Thursday’s field. He also brings tactical speed to the fold, a benefit since 40% of six-furlong dirt sprints at Fair Grounds are won by pacesetters. Cutting back in distance might be all Mr Elvin needs to win.

The first-time starter #3 Graded Vision (9-2) can battle with #4 Permanentdetention (6-1) to complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #2 Mr Elvin
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 3,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 3: $7,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 7:16 p.m. ET)

#4 Inherent Powers (7-5) flashed speed in his debut sprinting five furlongs over the Gulfstream Park turf course last May, pressing fractions of :21.71 and :44.66 before weakening to finish fifth in a field of nine.

Inherent Powers hasn’t run since, but he breezed a bullet five furlongs in 1:01 at Turfway earlier this month and should be dangerous while descending in class, dropping blinkers, and adding Lasix. Keep in mind, trainer Wesley Ward has been hot at Turfway Park this meet, going 13-for-46 (28%).

Thanks to the Midweek Bet Back offer, we can place a $10 win bet on Inherent Powers and receive a refund if he settles for second place.

#8 Ky Hot Brown (5-1) can complete the exacta after finishing sixth in his debut against maiden special weight company at Mahoning Valley.

• $10 to win on #4 Inherent Powers
• $5 Exacta: 4 with 8
  Total: $15

Turfway Park: Race 5: $25,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 8:14 p.m. ET)

After cracking the trifecta only once in four starts on dirt, #7 Enid (5-2) ran out of his skin when switching to Tapeta for a one-mile maiden special weight at Turfway Park last month. After briefly dueling for the lead, Enid seized a clear advantage, repulsed all challenges, and drew off down the homestretch to win by 7 3/4 lengths with a 90 Brisnet Speed rating.

If Enid produces a similar effort in his second run over the local surface, he can bring his Turfway record to a perfect 2-for-2. The fact leading jockey Gerardo Corrales has the mount is significant, since Corrales has gone 3-for-5 (60%) teaming up with trainer Mike Maker over the last two months.

#1 Carom (9-2), sixth in a $40,000 allowance optional claimer over 1 1/8 miles at Turfway last month, can complete the exacta.

• $20 to win on #7 Enid
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 1
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $1,559 Super High 5 carryover (9:46 p.m. ET)

There are no certainties in horse racing, but it seems reasonable to conclude #4 Keeping the Edge (2-1) is a horse to key on top in Thursday’s eighth race at Turfway Park, a maiden special weight for three-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta.

That’s good news, because Race 8 just happens to feature a $1,559 carryover in the $1 Super High 5. Hitting one of Turfway’s Super High 5 wagers isn’t easy, and Thursday is unlikely to be an exception—not with 12 horses plus two also-eligible runners to analyze. But the possibility of keying Keeping the Edge on top simplifies the task.

Thursday’s heat seems like a perfect fit for Keeping the Edge. A full-brother to Hopeful S. (G1) winner Competitive Edge, Keeping the Edge finished fifth in his debut at Aqueduct in January, then shipped to Laurel Park and ran second in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight. Keeping the Edge was only beaten half a length, and the strength of the race was indicated when both the winner and the third-place finisher returned to win their next starts.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, Keeping the Edge is clearly the fastest horse in Thursday’s field. His first two starts produced figures of 89 and 98, whereas none of his rivals have posted a figure higher than 78. Trainer Michael Trombetta wins at a lofty 27% rate with horses transitioning from dirt to synthetic, and hot jockey Gerardo Corrales is named to ride, so all signs suggest Keeping the Edge is sitting on a winning effort.

Underneath Keeping the Edge, we have to respect the first-time starter #7 Highly Flammable (5-2), who has been turning in sharp workouts for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse. Sire Munnings is responsible for 16% winners from first-time starters, which matches Casse’s win rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

#5 Overly Critical (9-2) is another solid contender after placing twice over this track and class level. And second-time starter #8 Midway Miracle (12-1) is eligible to step forward at a price in his first start as a gelding.

Our initial draft of a Super High 5 play comes in a bit pricey at $128, but since #14 Fast Felix (10-1) is an also-eligible, there’s a good chances a scratch (or scratches) will significantly reduce the cost of our ticket. If Fast Felix withdraws, the cost will drop all the way down to $54.

• $1 Super High 5: 4 with 5,7 with 5,6,7,8,14 with 3,5,6,7,8,14 with 3,5,6,7,8,9,14 ($128)

Good luck!