Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 18

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, March 18 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including tickets for Turfway’s $3,732 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Turfway Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Solvalla (SWE), Arhus (SWE), Ostersund (SWE), or Jarlsberg (SWE).
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Wolverhampton (UK).
• $15,000 Australian Autumn Carnival Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at a selected Australian track (this week, Rosehill) for a chance to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot. Promotion runs every Friday from March 4 through April 8.
• Cheltenham Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in eligible races at Cheltenham (UK).

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds Race 2: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs, 2:34 p.m. ET)

#7 Palace Magic (6-5) has finished second in three straight races over this track, distance, and class level. She was beaten a length or less on all three occasions while earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 74, 70, and 76.

Palace Magic is clearly the fastest filly on paper and brings solid tactical speed to the table, so her typical performance should be good enough to secure a breakthrough victory. #1A Pi Yo Princess (7-2), who finished just a head behind Palace Magic over this class level two starts back, can complete the exacta.

• $30 to win on #7 Palace Magic
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 1
  Total: $40

Turfway Park: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (five furlongs on Tapeta, 6:15 p.m. ET)

#8 Mas Chikilin (5-2) is a logical favorite after putting up a sharp series of Brisnet Speed ratings at Woodbine last year. But the six-year-old gelding hasn’t run since September and is dropping in class, so it’s hard to know whether he’ll produce a peak effort.

Let’s try to beat Mas Chikilin with #7 Areyoutalkingtome (7-2). The chestnut gelding has shown some tactical speed in a pair of $5,000 claimers racing one mile at Turfway this winter, ultimately finishing fifth and fourth. Cutting back in distance can potentially trigger a winning effort; Areyoutalkingtome did finish a solid third in a 5 1/2-furlong $5,000 claimer at Mahoning Valley three starts back. The presence of Turfway’s leading jockey Gerardo Corrales adds to the appeal.

• $20 to win on #7 Areyoutalkingtome
• $10 Exacta: 7 with 8
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 6: Allowance (1 1/4 miles on Tapeta, 8:46 p.m. ET)

#3 Tiberius Mercurius (7-2) was tons the best over this track and distance on Dec. 26. Making his debut over the Turfway oval, Tiberius Mercurius led all the way and finished strongly (running the final quarter-mile in :24.69) to dominate by 4 1/2 lengths. The runner-up, #9 Blanket of Roses (5-1), came right back to win his next start over the same track and distance.

Tiberius Mercurius subsequently shipped to Gulfstream Park, where he was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths when sixth in a $62,500 allowance optional claimer over 1 1/16 miles on turf. Returning to the Turfway Tapeta (and stretching back out in distance) can send Tiberius Mercurius to the winner’s circle for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Chris Landeros and Mike Maker.

Blanket of Roses and #1 Buy Me Candy (7-2) can battle for a spot in the exacta.

• $20 to win on #3 Tiberius Mercurius
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 1,9 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 9: $3,732 Super High 5 carryover (10:14 p.m. ET)

The always-challenging $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park has gone unclaimed for two straight racing days, which means there’s a $3,732 carryover on tap for Friday.

The prize pool is up for grabs in Race 9, a $7,500 claimer for non-winners of three races. The distance is 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta, and 11 horses have passed the entry box, though two—#2 Cape Marco Drive (50-1) and #4 Fredricktown (8-1)—have been scratched. That leaves 15,120 possible outcomes to consider.

The morning-line favorite is #8 Hard Night (5-2), and his credentials are solid. Three starts back, Hard Night rallied to victory in a $7,500 claimer for non-winners of two races sprinting six furlongs at Turfway, scoring by a neck over #1 Cornbread Hill (3-1).

Hard Night subsequently ran second in a five-furlong sprint over this class level before stepping up to $15,000 company over one mile, where he faded late to finish fifth by three lengths. Dropping back down in class and distance should make Hard Night tough to beat under Gerardo Corrales, especially since trainer William Morey (a 31% winner at Turfway) strikes at a 39% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder.

The above-mentioned Cornbread Hill is another key contender. After finishing second against Hard Night at the $7,500 level, Cornbread Hill tackled a $15,000 claimer for non-winners of two races and promptly won by two lengths, posting a flashy 84 Brisnet Speed rating. A subsequent $18,000 claimer proved too tough, as Cornbread Hill finished last of 10, but dropping down to the $7,500 level can trigger a turnaround.

#10 Rogue Leader (3-1) is the other name to know. The speedy four-year-old employed pace-tracking tactics to win a $5,000 claimer for non-winners of two races on March 10 at Turfway, scoring by a neck with a 78 Brisnet Speed rating. Across the board, Rogue Leader’s Brisnet Speed ratings are competitive, so he’s eligible to produce a strong run even while stepping up in class.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 8 with 1,10 with 1,10 with 3,7 with 3,5,6,7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 8 with 1,10 with 3,7 with 1,10 with 3,5,6,7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 1,10 with 8 with 1,10 with 3,7 with 3,5,6,7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 1,10 with 8 with 3,7 with 1,10 with 3,5,6,7 ($12)
  Total: $48

Good luck!