Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 23

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, March 23 at Fair Grounds and Gulfstream Park, including a ticket for Gulfstream’s $6,463 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Fair Grounds.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Happy Valley (Hong Kong).
• Scandinavian Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Bjerke (SWE), Bergen (SWE), Solvalla (SWE), or Aby (SWE).

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 2:05 p.m. ET)

#5 Sweet Bay (7-5) has come to hand quite nicely at Fair Grounds this year. Under the care of hot trainer Ron Faucheux (a 25% winner this meet), Sweet Bay has broken her maiden for a $12,500 claiming tag, finished fifth in a $15,000 claimer, and romped by 2 3/4 lengths in a $5,000 claimer.

All of these efforts came sprinting six furlongs, and Sweet Bay showed tactical speed in both of her victories while posting sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 72 and 77. There isn’t a ton of pace in Wednesday’s field, so a typical performance from Sweet Bay should be sufficient to secure a clean trip and beat #2 Rivetrix (8-1) and #3 Spy a Star (7-2) to the winner’s circle.

• $20 to win on #5 Sweet Bay
• $5 Exacta: 5 with 2,3 ($10)
  Total: $30

Gulfstream Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 3:09 p.m. ET)

#3 Missy Greer (7-2) ran well over this track, distance, and class level on Feb. 13, carving out the pace before weakening down the homestretch to finish third by 2 3/4 lengths. Even in defeat, she earned a solid 84 Brisnet Speed rating, tied for the highest figure in Wednesday’s field.

That effort marked Missy Greer’s first start since October, so she’s eligible to improve in her second start off the layoff. Trainer Danny Gargan has been hot at Gulfstream this meet, winning at a 29% rate, and Gargan’s lofty 31% win rate with horses racing on Lasix for the second time applies to Missy Greer. Throw in the presence of jockey Luis Saez (a 30% winner teaming up with Gargan over the last two months), and Missy Greer is an obvious win threat.

First-time starter #6 I’m Baffled (3-1) can battle with #8 Friendship Road (6-1) for the minor awards.

• $20 to win on #3 Missy Greer
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 6,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $50,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile on turf, 4:59 p.m. ET)

It’s unclear whether rain will force this two-turn turf heat to be contested on dirt. But regardless, #6 Lord Zed (5-2) should be formidable while dropping in class.

Conditioned by high-percentage trainer Brad Cox (a 28% winner at Fair Grounds this meet), Lord Zed has placed twice against maiden special weight company at Fair Grounds. After running second in his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs, the son of Lord Nelson finished third in a slow-paced one-mile heat, beaten only 1 1/2 lengths with a sharp 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

Lord Zed is clearly the runner to beat on grass, but since Lord Nelson won three Grade 1 races on dirt, tackling the main track shouldn’t be an issue for Lord Zed either. Plus, Cox wins at a 36% rate with horses running long for the second time, which matches his win rate when teaming up with jockey Colby Hernandez over the last two months.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Lord Zed. Then we’ll bet him on top of an exacta using #2 Brother Harold (20-1) and #5 Cryptic Code (5-1) for second place.

• $10 to win on #6 Lord Zed
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 2,5 ($10)
  Total: $20

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: $6,463 Super High 5 carryover (1:05 p.m. ET)

Let’s say you have your eyes focused on winning a share of the $6,463 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs on Wednesday at Gulfstream Park. If you’re going to pursue this goal, you had better come prepared, because a serious handicapping challenge is on tap.

Winning the prize pool for the $1 non-jackpot wager involves selecting the top five finishers in Race 1, a $16,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds racing one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta. You might be telling yourself, “There are only nine entries—that’s just 15,120 possible outcomes, a very manageable number!” But the form lines of the nine runners are quite muddled, and choosing which horses to build tickets around is easier said than done.

Take morning-line favorite #5 Poetic Code (3-1) as an example. The son of Honor Code has placed a couple of times over this track and class level, but his 0-for-9 lifetime record and 0-for-7 record over the Gulfstream Tapeta both indicate he’s more likely to secure a minor award than battle for victory.

Much the same can be said of second choice #8 Mekano (7-2), who has hit the board in three of his four starts over this track and class level. Certainly Mekano has a strong chance to finish in the top five, but he’s 0-for-7 lifetime and 0-for-5 over the Gulfstream Tapeta, so he’s not necessarily one to count on for a winning performance.

That’s why we’re going to think outside the box with #1 Stolen Money (5-1). True, the Saffie Joseph trainee failed to fire at all in his Dec. 5 debut against $25,000 maiden claiming company over this track and distance, racing in last place throughout while coming home more than 80 lengths behind the winner.

But Stolen Money has been freshened since then and is adding blinkers and Lasix for his first start as a gelding. It’s worth noting Joseph wins at a 24% rate with second-time starters, and he’s gone 17-for-68 (25%) saddling experienced runners in Tapeta routes at Gulfstream. Throw in jockey Tyler Gaffalione (a 20% winner teaming up with Joseph over the last two months), and Stolen Money is eligible to fire a much stronger shot in his second run under colors.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 5,8 with 5,8 with ALL with ALL ($60)

Good luck!