Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 24

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, March 24 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including a ticket for Turfway’s $30,395 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Turfway Park.
• Thursday Pick 5 Winsurance: Play the early Pick 5 at Woodbine Mohawk and receive a Winsurance refund of 25% (up to $25 total) if your ticket fails to win. Offer applies to your first Pick 5 wager that meets or exceeds $24 in cost.
• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Fair Grounds. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 1: $10,000 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 2:05 p.m. ET)

There’s barely any speed in this maiden claiming sprint for Louisiana-breds, which should suit frontrunning #2 Enchanted Moon (6-5) just fine. The four-year-old gelding has set the pace in his last three starts and enters off a pair of runner-up efforts over this track, distance, and class level. He quite nearly visited the winner’s circle on Feb. 24, carving out a fast pace before settling for second by a nose.

With a pair of 67 Brisnet Speed ratings under his belt, Enchanted Moon is the fastest horse in Thursday’s field. If he steps forward at all in his first start for the hot jockey/trainer duo of Jareth Loveberry and Ron Faucheux (35% winners together over the last two months), Enchanted Moon can secure a breakthrough victory.

#3 Little Puck (9-2) can chase Enchanted Moon around the track to complete the exacta. We’ll play it cold for $10, in order to capitalize on the Exacta Insurance promotion.

• $10 Exacta: 2 with 3

Fair Grounds: Race 8: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 5:30 p.m. ET)

#6 Colonelsdarktemper (7-2) was a force to reckon with last year, winning four of his five starts. His lone defeat came against graded stakes competition, and he ended the year with a flashy 4 1/4-length victory in a $62,500 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs.

Colonelsdarktemper recently returned to action in a $30,000 starter allowance at Fair Grounds, where he unfortunately stumbled at the start and lost his rider. Assuming he gets a clean run on Thursday, Colonesdarktemper can use his frontrunning speed to spring a surprise over stablemate #1 Intrepid Heart (3-1), who won the above-mentioned $30,000 starter allowance by four lengths.

In addition to a win bet on Colonelsdarktemper, we’ll bet him over Intrepid Heart in a cold $10 exacta taking advantage of the Exacta Insurance offer.

• $20 to win on #6 Colonelsdarktemper
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 1
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta, 9:46 p.m. ET)

#8 Ahh Amazing (8-1) fired off a solid effort in her Feb. 24 debut over this track, distance, and class level. After carving out the pace, Ahh Mazing weakened in the final furlong to finish eighth by just 6 1/4 lengths.

Trainer Michael McCarthy isn’t a frequent winner with first-time starters, scoring at just a 5% rate since 2019. But McCarthy’s success rate with second-time starters triples to 15%, so there’s a chance Ahh Mazing will step forward meaningfully in her second run under colors.

Let’s bet Ahh Amazing to win, then box her in the exacta with logical favorite #9 Spare Cash (9-5).

• $20 to win on #8 Ahh Amazing
• $5 Exacta box: 8,9 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 1: $30,395 Pick 5 carryover (6:15 p.m. ET)

One of the most exciting carryovers in the country on Thursday is up for grabs at Turfway Park, where there’s a $30,395 prize pool waiting in the 50-cent Early Pick 5.

Let’s examine the races and assemble a ticket:

Race 1: $30,000 Maiden Claiming (1 1/16 miles on Tapeta)

#2 Thefabulous Moolah (5-2) was beaten less than one length when second over this track and class level on March 4. Leading jockey Gerardo Corrales retains the mount for hot trainer Jose D’Angelo (a 32% winner at Turfway), setting the stage for a winning effort.

We’ll also include #7 Hannah’s Haven (3-1), who ran fifth in a maiden special weight over this track and distance in December. The caliber of competition was strong (both the winner and runner-up returned to win), and Hannah’s Haven will add Lasix for her second local start.

Race 2: $5,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta)

#2 Mi Enlace (3-1) and #7 Tami Ann (7-2) have both finished second over this track, distance, and class level in recent starts, stamping them as logical favorites.

But don’t dismiss #6 Just Fine by Me (5-1). The five-year-old mare has been facing tougher competition and was beaten just 2 1/4 lengths when fourth in a $15,000 claimer at Turfway in December. Dropping in class can put Just Fine by Me in the hunt under apprentice jockey Thiago Canuto, who provides Just Fine by Me with a seven-pound weight break.

Race 3: $5,000 Maiden Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta)

#3 Pettinari (5-2) has only run once, finishing seventh after dueling for the lead in a $15,000 maiden claimer at Turfway more than one year ago.  On the bright side, Pettinari has put together a solid work tab in preparation for his return, highlighted by a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 at Turfway. Hot trainer Wesley Ward wins at a 39% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so Pettinari should be dangerous even off the layoff.

But just in case Pettinari runs below form, we’ll include #9 Mountain Time (5-2) and #10 Jack’s Dream (2-1) for good measure. Runner-up sprinting over this track and class level on Dec. 31, Jack’s Dream is set to make his first start since being claimed by Jose D’Angelo, who enlists Gerardo Corrales to ride. Meanwhile, Mountain Time is dropping in class and distance after finishing fifth in a $15,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Turfway.

Race 4: $12,500 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta)

#8 My Good Girl (3-1) has been competing against tougher $18,000 and $25,000-$20,000 claiming company at Turfway while earning competitive Brisnet Speed ratings in the 73-78 range. Dropping down the class ladder should put My Good Girl in win contention under Gerardo Corrales.

#11 Addison (4-1) has likewise been facing tougher competition and should appreciate the class drop after misfiring in an $18,000 claimer last month. We’ll round out our play with #5 Brunella (6-1), who recently returned from a long layoff to finish third over this track, distance, and class level. She has upside for improvement in her second run of the season.

Race 5: $15,000 Claiming (one mile on Tapeta)

#1 Letsgoandgetthedo (2-1) has run three times over this class level at Turfway, finishing second each time. Along the way, she’s posted sharp Brisnet Speed ratings in the 75-80 range.

If anyone can defeat Letsgoandgetthedo, it’s #6 Miss Adeline (5-2). The daughter of Big Blue Kitten exits a pair of $30,000 claimers at Turfway, where she finished third and fourth in large fields. These efforts produced Brisnet Speed ratings of 77 and 79, so Miss Adeline is fast enough to give Letsgoandgetthedo a tussle for top honors.

• 50-cent Pick 5: 2,7 with 2,6,7 with 3,9,10 with 5,8,11 with 1,6 ($54)

Good luck!