Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for March 25

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, March 25 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, including tickets for Turfway’s $2,465 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Exacta Insurance: Receive refunds on exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the first three home (but not in the winning order) at Turfway Park. Offer applies to straight exacta bets only.
• Hoosier Park Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Hoosier Park.
• $15,000 Australian Autumn Carnival Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at a selected Australian track (this week, Rosehill) for a chance to win your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot. Promotion runs every Friday from March 4 through April 8.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds Race 7: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:59 p.m. ET)

#1 Goin’ Good (9-5) fired off a big effort over this course and distance in the March 1 Mardi Gras S. Running for the first time since August, Goin’ Good tracked the early pace before staying on to finish second behind local sprint star Elle Z.

This effort produced a flashy 96 Brisnet Speed rating, and it was hardly a fluke. Goin’ Good won or placed in a quartet of stakes last year while posting Brisnet Speed ratings in the 93-98 range on three occasions. Trainer Brad Cox wins at a 29% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, so if Goin’ Good steps forward in her second run of the season, she’ll be tough to deny in Friday’s allowance.

Goin’ Good’s undefeated stablemate #6 Emro (2-1), who recently returned from a long layoff to win a $40,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds, can complete the exacta. #7 Sail On Ellen (5-1), who ran fourth in the Mardi Gras, is a logical choice to round out the trifecta.

• $20 to win on #1 Goin’ Good
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 6
• $5 Trifecta: 1 with 6 with 7
  Total: $35

Turfway Park: Race 1: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta, 6:15 p.m. ET)

Coupled entrymates #1 Dom the Bomb (1-1) and #1A Morethansoultitle (1-1) appear formidable in this low-level claiming sprint.

Dom the Bomb has crossed the wire first in three of his four starts since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli, most recently wiring a five-furlong $5,000 claimer at Turfway by six lengths. Meanwhile, Morethansoultitle is 2-for-2 at Turfway, employing pace-tracking tactics to win a pair of $5,000 claimers sprinting six furlongs.

Rivelli has been on fire at Turfway, winning at a 34% rate, and the fact Dom the Bomb and Morethansoultitle offer contrasting running styles should allow one or the other to prevail on Friday.

#4 Winging Ways (4-1), victorious in two straight $5,000 claimers at Turfway, is the one we’ll add for a cold $10 exacta capitalizing on the Exacta Insurance promotion. We’ll also play a trifecta using #7 Dragon Drew (5-1) and #8 Grande Tortugon (6-1) for third place.

• $10 Exacta: 1 with 4
• $5 Trifecta: 1 with 4 with 7,8 ($10)
  Total: $20

Turfway Park: Race 6: $5,000 Starter Allowance (one mile on Tapeta, 8:46 p.m. ET)

#8 The Boss Factor (3-1) got burned out chasing fast fractions of :22.92 and :45.94 in an $8,000 starter allowance over this track and class level on March 5, weakening to finish fifth. But The Boss Factor had previously won three straight one-mile heats at Turfway, most notably setting a controlled pace to crush an $8,000 claimer by nine lengths.

The Boss Factor will drop down to the $5,000 starter allowance level on Friday, and since there isn’t a ton of speed in the field, he figures to secure a favorable trip setting or stalking a modest pace. This combination should allow The Boss Factor to deliver victory over #5 Direct Approach (7-2) and #7 Joyful Heart (6-1).

• $20 to win on #8 The Boss Factor
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 5,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 9: $2,465 Super High 5 carryover (10:14 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Turfway Park concluded in chaotic fashion as 43-1 longshot Peyote Peggy posted a gate-to-wire upset in the finale. Suffice to say, no one managed to assemble a winning Super High 5 ticket, which means the $1 wager feature a $2,465 carryover for Friday’s card.

As usual, the carryover is available in the final race on the card—in this case, Race 9, a $7,500 maiden claimer for three-year-olds racing one mile on Tapeta. A dozen horses have been entered, which means there are 95,040 possible outcomes.

There are plenty of logical contenders to consider, but we’re going to focus our attention on midrange longshot #12 Aftermath (8-1). The bay gelding hasn’t missed the board in four starts racing one mile at Turfway Park, including a pair of $15,000 maiden claimers.

Last time out, Aftermath dropped down to the $7,500 maiden claiming level and finished clearly second-best, 2 1/4 lengths behind the winner but 2 3/4 lengths ahead of the rest. With Brisnet Speed ratings of 68 and 65 from his last two starts, Aftermath is fast enough to win Friday’s race. Drawing the outside post is a concern, but if Aftermath is able to tuck in and save some ground, he looks like as logical a win threat as any.

#5 Madelyns Heat (8-1) and #7 Tightwad (7-2) are other logical contenders while dropping in class out of much tougher $30,000 maiden claimers. Tightwad in particular is bound to draw support since he’s only run once and is eligible to improve while stretching out in distance. Trainer Eddie Kenneally (a 13% winner overall) wins at a 25% rate with horses running long for the first time and at a 32% rate with horses descending multiple levels down the class ladder.

Meanwhile, we’ll try to beat #2 Waylaid (5-1). The Wesley Ward trainee debuted in a six-furlong sprint over this track and class level on Feb. 25, but failed to show much as the 9-5 favorite and came home fifth by a dozen lengths. The 49 Brisnet Speed rating he posted suggests Waylaid needs improvement to challenge against this level of competition.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 12 with 5,7 with 5,7,8,10 with 5,7,8,10 with 3,4,5,7,8,10,11 ($48)

Good luck!