Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 27

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Thursday, May 27 at Canterbury Park, Churchill Downs, and Indiana Grand, along with horses of note in Churchill’s $89,846 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Canterbury Park.
• Churchill Downs Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs.
• Trifecta Thursdays: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25) on any winning trifecta ticket.
• Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll: Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show bets) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Picks and plays

Canterbury Park, Race 6: Honor the Hero S. (five furlongs on turf, 8:10 p.m. ET)

There is a lot of speed entered in this 11-horse field, but pacesetters aren’t dominant in five-furlong turf sprints at Canterbury, with a win rate of 35%. Assuming a fast pace unfolds, I believe #10 Jazzy Times (6-1) will receive just the trip he needs to roll home on top at a nice price.

The eight-year-old veteran has placed at the Grade 1 level and won the 5 1/2-furlong Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Sprint S. at Ellis Park in 2018, so we know he has talent.

Jazzy Times is also tractable. At Tampa Bay Downs last month, he rallied from mid-pack to finish second in a five-furlong allowance sprint.

Trainer David Van Winkle has been hot at Canterbury, with a 23% win rate, and Jazzy Times has posted sharp workouts in preparation for his return to stakes company.

To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Jazzy Times. Then we’ll play him in the exacta, over logical speedsters #1 Drena’s Star (5-2) and #2 Chess Master (8-1).

$10 to win on #10 Jazzy Times
$2 exacta: 10 with 1,2 ($4)
Total: $14

Churchill Downs, Race 5: $75,000 maiden claiming (one mile, 6:56 p.m. ET)

#5 Abdan (5-2) is a logical favorite, after he finished third in a pair of slightly longer events on the Kentucky circuit. In both a $50,000 maiden claiming race at Keeneland and a maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, Abdan carved out the pace and weakened in the final furlong.

The cut back to a one-turn mile should suit Abdan, and trainer Al Stall has been hot this meet, with a 22% win rate. Abdan also looms as the lone speed on paper, so an uncontested lead should be in the offing.

To capitalize on the Churchill Downs Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Abdan. Then we’ll play him in a cold exacta, over the stretch-running #2 Prime Time Player (3-1).

$10 to win on #5 Abdan
$6 exacta: 5 with 2
Total: $16

Indiana Grand, Race 2: Maiden special weight (five furlongs, 3:56 p.m. ET)

First-time starter #4 Muddy Boots (7-2) has the credentials to fire a big shot in this maiden sprint for juvenile fillies.

Her work tab isn’t flashy, but trainer Cipriano Contreras has gone 2-3-1 in nine starts with debuting two-year-olds at Indiana Grand since 2018. That’s a 22% win rate and a 67% in-the-money rate.

One of Contreras’ winners was Muddy Boots’ half-brother, Betsdownletsride, who won his first three starts at Indiana Grand last year (including the Hillsdale S.) comfortably.

Since Muddy Boots has the connections and breeding to excel on debut, let’s bet the chestnut filly to win, then play her over #5 Grandma B (5-2) and #7 Little Lucerito (5-1) in the exacta and trifecta.

$18 to win on #4 Muddy Boots
$4 exacta: 4 with 5,7 ($8)
$2 trifecta: 4 with 5,7 with 5,7 ($4)
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Churchill Downs, Race 3: $89,846 Derby City Pick 6 jackpot

The racing week at Churchill Downs will kick off with a $89,846 carryover in the Derby City Pick 6 jackpot. A competitive sequence is on tap, and since the 20-cent wager pays out 90% of the daily pool on days when multiple winning tickets are sold, the Derby City 6 (with its 15% takeout rate) is an excellent jackpot bet to tackle on a regular basis.

The video below shows the previous 6 race sequence that led to today's carryover!

Planning to play along Thursday? We’ve highlighted a few horses of note across the six-race sequence:

Vulnerable favorite: Race 3, #5 Chewy Chewy Good (5-2)

Chewy Chewy Good will be a popular play on the drop in class, but she is not a lock to win this seven-furlong, $10,000 claiming sprint.

Her best efforts have come at one mile or farther, and she is set to make her first start since being claimed by trainer Jason Barkley, who wins at just an 8% rate with new claiming acquisitions.

It is possible Chewy Chewy Good will need to get a race under her belt before she hits peak form for her new connections.

Best single: Race 3, #4 A Lot of Spunk (3-1)

If we’re going to oppose Chewy Chewy Good, then why not take a stand with A Lot of Spunk?

Her last two efforts on turf and synthetic have not been inspiring, but the Thomas Drury trainee posted a couple strong efforts sprinting on dirt last season, most notably when she broke her maiden at Belterra Park for a 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

A Lot of Spunk has tactical speed, coupled with tractability, and she is faster than Chewy Chewy Good on the Brisnet Speed rating scale.

Throw in the fact Drury has four wins from 10 starts at Churchill Downs this spring, and A Lot of Spunk looks like a logical single at a fair price.

Live longshot: Race 8, #5 Ocelot (6-1)

Ocelot showed promise in two starts at Woodbine last fall, when he finished third in maiden special weight sprints on turf and synthetic.

The son of turf champion Big Blue Kitten has cranked out fast workouts in preparation for his 2021 debut, and trainer Norman McKnight has compiled a 2-1-1 record from 10 starts at Churchill Downs this spring.

Ocelot brings frontrunning speed and can challenge for victory if he improves in his first start of the season.

Good luck!