Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Oct. 12

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $65 worth of picks and plays for Tuesday, Oct. 12 at Presque Isle Downs and Parx, including three exacta wagers.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Parx Racing.

Picks and plays

Parx Racing, Race 2: $16,000 starter/optional claiming (one mile, 1:23 p.m. ET)

#1 Sweet Willemina (6-5) has been unstoppable since she was claimed by trainer Scott Lake in June. The four-year-old filly has rattled off five consecutive victories since she traveled from Kentucky to the East Coast, including a seven-length romp in the Salvatore M. Debunda PTHA President’s Cup S. at Parx last month.

Sweet Willemina brings tactical speed and strong Brisnet Speed ratings, so she should be tough to beat with the drop in class Tuesday. The rail also produces 18% winners in one-mile dirt races at Parx.

#3 Like a Pro (5-1), an allowance winner at this track and distance during the spring, can complete the exacta, but our primary play will be a $10 win bet on Sweet Willemina, to capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer.

$10 to win on #1 Sweet Willemina
$5 exacta: 1 with 3
Total: $15

Parx Racing, Race 10: M.P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile S. (one mile, 5:11 p.m. ET)

For the most part, #10 Phat Man (4-1) has competed against tougher competition than he’ll encounter at Parx.

The seven-year-old veteran finished third, behind multiple Grade 1 winner Code of Honor, in the Philip H. Iselin S. (G3) two starts back, and during the spring, Phat Man was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths when he came in fifth in the Churchill Downs S. (G1).

Post 10 at Parx is a slight concern for Phat Man, since he risks a wide journey. But his Brisnet Speed ratings are strong, and trainer Kent Sweezey has won both of his starts at Parx this meet, so we’ll assume Phat Man will be primed and ready for a competitive effort even under less-than-ideal circumstances.

Thanks to the Midweek Bet Back promotion, we can place a $10 win bet on Phat Man and receive a refund if he finishes second. We’ll also play him on top of an exacta, with #1 Senior Investment (9-2) and #4 Galerio (7-2) for second place.

$10 to win on #10 Phat Man
$5 exacta: 10 with 1,4 ($10)
Total: $20

Presque Isle Downs, Race 3: $6,250 starter allowance (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:35 p.m. ET)

#3 Stevis Man (1-1) has made steady progress this season for trainer Shelly Radosevich.

The chestnut gelding might be 11 years old, but his form is ascending. He has compiled four wins and two seconds from his last six starts and most recently wired a $20,000 claimer at Presque Isle by 3 1/4 lengths.

The drop into a $6,250 starter allowance should make Stevis Man formidable at a short price. He has plenty of frontrunning speed and owns the best Brisnet Speed ratings in the field, so let’s play him over the consistent #2 Rio Abajo (9-5) in a cold exacta.

$30 exacta: 3 with 2

Good luck!