Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for Sept. 29

September 29th, 2021

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Sept. 29 at Thistledown, Indiana Grand, and Presque Isle Downs, including a ticket for Indiana Grand’s $45,997 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Thistledown.
  • Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Greyville (South Africa).

Picks and plays

Thistledown, Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 1:50 p.m. ET)

#3 Good Idea (2-1) posted a field-best 78 Brisnet Speed rating when he finished second in his debut Aug. 9 at Thistledown. Good Idea dueled for the early lead, then weakened slightly to finish second, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths and 13 lengths clear of the third-place runner.

Good Idea regressed in a Sept. 8 maiden special weight at Thistledown, where he rallied belatedly to finish fourth. But the son of Buffum gained four lengths through the final furlong, and he finished just 1 3/4 lengths behind runner-up #1 Chromed Impulse (9-5), the favorite to win Wednesday’s test.

I believe Good Idea can turn the tables, and thanks to the Midweek Bet Back offer, we can place a $10 win bet on Good Idea and receive a refund if he comes in second.

We’ll also bet Good Idea on top of Chromed Impulse in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #3 Good Idea
$10 exacta: 3 with 1
Total: $20

Indiana Grand, Race 6: Maiden special weight (five furlongs on turf, 5:00 p.m. ET)

Since 2017, trainer Wesley Ward has a 5-3-2 record from 13 starts with debut juveniles at Indiana Grand, which equates to a 38% win rate and a 77% in-the-money rate. Four of those winners came on turf, which suggests Ward’s #11 Liza’s Ready (5-2) will be tough to deny in this grass sprint for two-year-old fillies.

An unraced daughter of More Than Ready (who sires 13% winners on turf), Liza’s Ready was produced by Liza Too, the dam of juvenile debut winner and two-time stakes-winning sprinter Long Weekend. It is a pedigree geared toward speed and success from an early age, so there’s no reason to think Liza’s Ready won’t fire a strong shot on debut.

Let’s bet Liza’s Ready to win and play her on top of straight exacta and trifecta tickets.

$20 to win on #11 Liza’s Ready
$10 exacta: 11 with 7
$5 trifecta: 11 with 7 with 5
Total: $35

Presque Isle Downs, Race 6: $8,500 claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta, 6:50 p.m. ET)

There isn’t much speed in this two-turn claimer, which could lend an edge to the consistent #5 Cooper Crescent (3-1).

A pacesetting/pressing type who hasn’t missed the board in his last nine starts, Cooper Crescent has competed against tougher claiming company than he’ll face Wednesday. Three starts back, he won a $13,500 claimer at Presque Isle. Four starts back, he finished third in in a $20,000 claimer and earned a 84 Brisnet Speed rating.

After he sharpened up with a fourth-place finish in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint at Presque Isle, Cooper’s Crescent should be ready for a strong effort. Trainer Mark Hoffman strikes at a 23% rate with horses who stretch out from a sprint to a route, and the drop to the $8,500 claiming level should also help Cooper’s Crescent’s chances.

A win bet will be our first order of business, followed by an exacta, with Cooper’s Crescent over logical favorite #2 Ault (8-5), who was victorious in his last two starts at the $8,500 claiming level.

$20 to win on #5 Cooper Crescent
$10 exacta: 5 with 2
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Indiana Grand, Race 5: $45,997 Pick 5 carryover (4:29 p.m. ET)

If you like betting maidens, you’ll love Wednesday’s Pick 5 carryover at Indiana Grand. Four of the five races in the 50-cent wager are maiden special weight events.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the Pick 5, then assemble a ticket on a $48 budget.

Race 5: Maiden special weight (one mile)

#8 Gio’s Baby Girl (1-1) is the clear morning-line favorite, after she finished second in her first two starts at this track and class level, with Brisnet Speed ratings of 53 and 52. But #4 Amazingness (4-1) posted a 55 when she finished second in a one-mile maiden special weight at Indiana Grand last month, so we’ll use both to kick off the Pick 5.

Race 6: Maiden special weight (five furlongs on turf)

We’ve already outlined a strong case for #11 Liza’s Ready (5-2), so we’ll make the Wesley Ward trainee a short-priced single.

Race 7: Maiden special weight (5 1/2 furlongs)

#6 Me and Chili (6-5) finished second as the 4-5 favorite in his debut at this track, distance, and class level Sept. 1.

He can challenge for victory in his second start for trainer Bernard Flint, a 29% winner with horses beaten as the favorite in their previous start.

But #7 Faithful Notion (9-2) earned a better Brisnet Speed rating when he finished second in a similar maiden sprint Sept. 1, so victory isn’t guaranteed for Me and Chili.

Race 8: Maiden special weight (one mile on turf)

#11 February Son (7-2) wasn’t disgraced when he finished fourth in a 1 1/2-mile maiden special weight Sept. 5 at Kentucky Downs. That followed a pair of close, runner-up efforts at a mile over the Indiana Grand lawn, which stamps February Son as a key contender.

But this is a deep field, so we’ll spread deep, with #4 Simon Peter (12-1), #6 Kid Shelleen (9-2), #7 Tropical Tornado, #8 Dynablue (3-1), and #10 American Diamond (12-1).

Race 9: Allowance (six furlongs)

#1 Justa Simple Girl (5-2), #4 Royal’s Girl (7-2), and #8 Tappin Into Summer (3-1) have all placed at this class level, and all bring competitive Brisnet Speed ratings. Throw in #3 Thunderstruck (5-1) for hot trainer Jeffrey Greenhill, and we should have the finale covered.

50-cent Pick 5: 4,8 with 11 with 6,7 with 4,6,7,8,10,11 with 1,3,4,8 ($48)

Good luck!

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