Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Jan. 27

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Jan. 27 at Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds, along with tickets for the $3,390 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Fair Grounds $1,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It and Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds on any day of live racing from Jan. 5-31 (excluding Jan. 21) to win your share of a daily $1,000 bonus jackpot.
• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races Friday through Sunday.

Picks and Plays

Gulfstream Park: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (five furlongs on turf, 3:07 p.m. ET)

#5 Tactical Joke (3-1) looks ready to win on debut for hot trainer Wesley Ward, who strikes at a 28% rate with first-time starters. Tactical Joke sold for $560,000 as a two-year-old in training, enters off a quick half-mile workout from the Palm Meadows starting gate, and has hot jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. named to ride.

Taking advantage of the Winter Money Back promotion, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Tactical Joke and receive a refund if she finishes second or third. Then we’ll box her in an exacta with #2 Sure Can (2-1), the other obvious contender after finishing second with a troubled trip over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 8.

Selections

• #5 Tactical Joke (3-1)
• #2 Sure Can (2-1)
• #1 Accomplished Girl (5-1)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #5 Tactical Joke
• $5 Exacta box: 2,5 ($10)
  Total: $20

Fair Grounds: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (about one mile on turf, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#5 Calling (4-1) ran okay in her debut sprinting six furlongs over the Fair Grounds dirt track, rallying from eighth place to finish fourth. Now she’s stretching out around two turns and switching to turf, two changes that can trigger improvement. Keep in mind, trainer Al Stall wins at a 20% rate with horses trying grass for the first time, and sire Star Guitar is responsible for 14% winners under the same conditions.

Let’s single Calling to start a double wager.

Selections

• #5 Calling (4-1)
• #2 Pursuit l’Harmonie (3-1)
• #8 Entitlement (7-2)

Wagers

• $25 Double: 5 with 5

Fair Grounds: Race 7: $80,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (six furlongs, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#5 Strobe (4-5) is 3-for-3 racing over fast tracks, with all of those victories coming in gate-to-wire fashion and by daylight margins. He was particularly impressive in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds last month, easily trouncing his rivals by six lengths with a flashy 101 Brisnet Speed rating.

Trainer Brad Cox has gone 17-for-45 (38%) at Fair Grounds this meet, and jockey Florent Geroux boasts a similarly impressive 15-for-49 (31%) record. Together, they’ve won at a 39% rate over the last two months, so it’s safe to say Strobe has hot connections in his corner.

Let’s single Strobe to conclude our double wager, then key him over longshot #2 High Cruise (12-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Strobe (4-5)
• #2 High Cruise (12-1)
• #3 Tulane Tryst (3-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 2

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $3,390 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

Super High 5 carryovers are common at Turfway Park. The $1 wager is available to play only once each racing day, in the final race of the evening, and wildly competitive fields are common to close out the cards.

Case in point, there’s a $3,390 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs on Friday at Turfway, and there’s no guarantee anyone will win it since the evening finale is Race 8, a $5,000 claimer featuring a dozen starters. You can make viable win cases for at least half a dozen runners (if not more), so constructing a winning ticket in this one-mile Tapeta test is bound to be difficult.

Since we have to take a stand somewhere, we might as well throw our support behind morning line favorite #3 Aggressivity (3-1), who appears well-spotted to vie for victory. The eight-year-old gelding unleashed a decent rally to finish sixth by 4 3/4 lengths in an $18,000 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Turfway last month. Trainer Genaro Garcia wins at an excellent 33% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder, so facing easier competition might be all Aggressivity needs to visit the winner’s circle.

#4 Estilo Peligroso (6-1) is another obvious threat. He ran second over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 14, beaten only half a length while rallying into a modest pace. #1 Stewards Rules (8-1), who played a part in that pace, finished less than one length behind Estilo Peligroso in third place and must be used as well. The same goes for #8 Tallestofthetall (10-1), who closed from well off the lead to finish fourth on Jan. 14.

#9 Mr. Walsh (5-1) has been sprinting without success as of late, but running long is his forte, and he’s eligible to improve while stretching back out in his first start since being claimed by high-percentage trainer Jonathan Wong, a 30% winner with new claiming acquisitions. The presence of hot apprentice jockey Walter Rodriguez (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance) adds to the appeal.

#10 Semi Charmed Day (9-2) rallied boldly to finish second by a neck in a $5,000 claimer over this track and class level on Jan. 7, earning a 74 Brisnet Speed rating that is competitive against Friday’s field. But #2 Percentage (8-1) didn’t finish far behind in fourth place after carving out the pace. Meanwhile, longshot #6 Futile (15-1) posted a 75 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing fourth in a $5,000 claimer dashing six furlongs at Turfway on Jan. 11; the 10-year-old veteran may outrun expectations while stretching out in distance.

Clearly there are tons of options to consider here. But we’ll play the Super High 5 as follows:

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 4,10 with 4,10 with 1,6,8,9 with 1,2,6,8,9 ($32)
• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 4,10 with 1,6,8,9 with 4,10 with 1,2,6,8,9 ($32)
  Total: $64

Good luck!