Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Jan. 4

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, Jan. 4 at Parx Racing, along with tickets for the $3,082 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park.

Picks and Plays

Parx Racing: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:37 p.m. ET)

#8 Equistar (3-1) misfired in her Nov. 23 debut over this track, distance, and class level, but returned on Dec. 12 to run second in an identical race. On that occasion, the well-bred daughter of Smarty Jones opened up a 3 1/2-length early advantage before weakening in the final furlong.

The third time might be the charm for Equistar. Three of her siblings have won stakes, and she’s adding Lasix for her sophomore debut. Throw in hot jockey Frankie Pennington (a 30% winner teaming up with trainer John Servis over the last two months), and Equistar is an appealing win play.

#1 Dream Chaser (15-1), #9 Dancing On My Own (9-2), and #11 Hop On Me (5-1) can battle for places in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Equistar (3-1)
• #9 Dancing On My Own (9-2)
• #11 Hop On Me (5-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #8 Equistar
• $4 Exacta: 8 with 1,9,11 ($12)
• Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 9: Kris Kringle S. (one mile and 70 yards, 3:31 p.m. ET)

Parx specialist #7 Far Mo Power (7-2) endured a tough trip when finishing fourth in the M.P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile S. last time out. But two starts back, the five-year-old gelding crossed the wire first by a neck in the Parx Dirt Mile, earning a massive 111 Brisnet Speed rating.

Far Mo Power was ultimately disqualified and placed second behind Mind Control in the Parx Dirt Mile, but the strength of his performance remains apparent. Far Mo Power was flattered when Mind Control came back to win the Cigar Mile H. (G1), so with a clean trip on Wednesday, Far Mo Power can bounce back to the winner’s circle.

#1 American Patrol (5-1) and #6 Ridin With Biden (2-1) are the two we’ll add for the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Far Mo Power (7-2)
• #6 Ridin With Biden (2-1)
• #1 American Patrol (5-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #7 Far Mo Power
• $6 Exacta: 7 with 1,6 ($12)
• Total: $30

Parx Racing: Race 10: Mrs. Claus S. (seven furlongs, 3:58 p.m. ET)

#1 Centre Court Champ (4-1) has been in red-hot form. Her 6-for-10 lifetime record over the Parx main track includes blowout victories in a $16,000 allowance optional claimer and a $35,000 allowance optional claimer to wrap up 2022.

Those wins produced improving Brisnet Speed ratings of 90 and 96, stamping Centre Court Champ as a logical win threat in the Mrs. Claus. She has tactical speed, and the rail post is producing 17% winners sprinting seven furlongs over the Parx dirt, so Centre Court Champ figures to enjoy a favorable trip.

A win bet on Centre Court Champ will be our primary play, but #7 Liscolvin (6-1) and #8 My Kentucky Girl (5-2) are worth including in an exacta.

Selections

• #1 Centre Court Champ (4-1)
• #7 Liscolvin (6-1)
• #8 My Kentucky Girl (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Centre Court Champ
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 7,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Turfway Park, Race 8: $3,082 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Turfway Park kicks off with a $3,082 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5. If you want to win a share, you had best come prepared for a stiff handicapping challenge.

The prize pool is on the table in Race 8, a $7,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. With 14 entries (including two on the also-eligible list), there are 240,240 possible Super High 5 outcomes before scratches. If you wait until scratches are in before you handicap, you’ll still have to deal with 95,040 possible outcomes, assuming a dozen horses start.

Part of what makes handicapping this Super High 5 so difficult is the fact #4 Isabel de Clare (4-1), #11 Gin N Sin (9-2), #9 Miss Sovelia (8-1) and #6 Olivia’s Joy (10-1) are remarkably difficult to split. They were separated by only 1 1/4 lengths when finishing second, third, fourth, and fifth in a 6 1/2-furlong dash over this track and class level on Dec. 14. That was a wide-open heat in which many runners were in the hunt for victory at the eighth pole, and you can make a case for any of these four to come back and win on Wednesday.

Adding to the complexity is the fact #5 Mrsinatraglorylady (20-1) lost her jockey at the start of the Dec. 14 maiden claimer and never had a chance to compete. She had previously shown flashes of promise at Horseshoe Indianapolis, a track from which many horses have shipped to win at Turfway this winter, so Mrsinatraglorylady can’t be dismissed as a live longshot.

So what’s the best strategy for betting the Super High 5? Maybe the key is to try and beat the Dec. 14 starters with #10 Bird Hunter (7-2), who is cutting back in distance after running fourth in a $7,500 maiden claimer racing one mile at Turfway last month. Bird Hunter didn’t get the cleanest trip before rallying belatedly down the homestretch, and since his career-best effort came in a sprint, dropping down to six furlongs may trigger a winning run under Turfway’s leading jockey Gerardo Corrales.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 4,9 with 4,6,9,11 with 4,6,9,11 with 4,5,6,7,8,9,11 ($48)
• $1 Super High 5: 10 with 5,7,8 with 4,9 with 4,6,9,11 with 4,6,9,11 ($36)
  Total: $84

Good luck!