Keeler Johnson's picks and plays Jan. 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Thursday, Jan. 5 at Fair Grounds and Turfway Park, along with horses to play in Aqueduct’s $189,198 Pick 5 carryover and Turfway’s $4,843 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Fair Grounds $1,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It and Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds on any day of live racing from Jan. 5-31 (excluding Jan. 21) to win your share of a daily $1,000 bonus jackpot.
• Turfway Park $2,500 Thursday Leaderboard Contest: Place $10+ win wagers at Turfway Park on Thursdays from Jan. 5-26 to earn points and play for your share of a $2,500 weekly jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Fair Grounds: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:15 p.m. ET)

Pacesetters have won 49% of six-furlong dirt sprints at Fair Grounds this meet, and that’s from a hefty sample size of 98 races. Clearly speed carries well over this track and distance, so we’ll favor #5 Pursuit l’Harmonie (3-1) in Thursday’s six-furlong dash.

Pursuit l’Harmonie failed to factor when debuting in the Donovan L. Ferguson Memorial S., finishing sixth. But the gray filly improved sharply when tackling a six-furlong maiden special weight on Dec. 2 at Fair Grounds, carving out the early pace before staying on to finish third by two lengths.

As the only obvious speed horse in Thursday’s field, Pursuit l’Harmonie has every chance to lead all the way for the ultra-hot jockey/trainer duo of Jose Rodriguez and Jose Camejo. We’ll bet Pursuit l’Harmonie to win and key her over #2 Entitlement (5-2) in an exacta.

Selections

• #5 Pursuit l’Harmonie (3-1)
• #2 Entitlement (5-2)
• #4 Yockey Betterfly (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Pursuit l’Harmonie
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 2
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on Tapeta, 7:55 p.m. ET)

The unraced #1 Donegal Arrow (7-2) hails from the high-percentage barn of Brad Cox. Since 2021, Cox has gone 4-for-11 (36%) saddling first-time starters in route races at Turfway, a powerful stat that bodes well for Donegal Arrow.

As a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Arrogate, Donegal Arrow has the pedigree to thrive racing one mile. Even better, he’s been cranking out fast workouts at Turfway, including bullet five-furlong breezes in :59 4/5 and 1:00 3/5. Everything suggests this gray colt is ready to fire a winning shot.

#6 Miranda Rights (5-2), #7 Accident (6-1), and #12 Yes Point (15-1) can battle for exacta honors.

Selections

• #1 Donegal Arrow (7-2)
• #6 Miranda Rights (5-2)
• #7 Accident (6-1)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #1 Donegal Arrow
• $4 Exacta: 1 with 6,7,12 ($12)
  Total: $30

Turfway Park: Race 6: Allowance (one mile on Tapeta, 8:25 p.m. ET)

#2 Bali Belle (2-1) has been on a roll since returning from a layoff during the fall. First she rallied from far behind to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight over the Meadowlands turf course. Then she finished second in a one-mile and 70-yard allowance on Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs. Most recently, Bali Belle tackled 1 1/16 miles in a $25,000 allowance optional claimer at Turfway, where she rallied to prevail by three-quarters of a length.

We’ll bet Bali Belle to win and bet her over #3 Maybe Later (5-2) and #6 Tap Dancing Lady (5-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 Bali Belle (2-1)
• #6 Tap Dancing Lady (5-1)
• #3 Maybe Later (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Bali Belle
• $5 Exacta: 2 with 3,6 ($10)
• Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Aqueduct, Race 4: $189,195 Pick 5 carryover (2:16 p.m. ET)

The Thursday card at Aqueduct brings a rare Pick 5 carryover. The 50-cent Late Pick 5 gets underway with a lucrative $189,195 prize pool up for grabs.

Looking for singles to build tickets around? We’ve identified a pair of possibilities:

Race 4: $20,000 Maiden Claiming (one mile): #10 Second and Reed (7-2)

Who owns the best Brisnet Speed rating in this field of three-year-old maidens? That would be Second and Reed, who posted a 74 when finishing sixth in a $75,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs at Aqueduct last month.

Who owns the second-best Brisnet Speed rating in this field? That would also be Second and Reed, who threw down a 63 when finishing fourth in a $40,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Aqueduct two starts back.

None of Second and Reed’s Thursday rivals have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 59, so he should be tough to beat while dropping in class. If Second and Reed comes home on top as a 7-2 single, we’ll be off to a great start in the Pick 5.

Race 5: Allowance (1 3/16 miles): #7 Tonal Impact (7-5)

Tonal Impact has been on fire in recent months, even while repeatedly switching barns. Check out his last four starts:

• On Sept. 18, Tonal Impact rallied from last place to dominate a $20,000 claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs, winning by 4 1/2 lengths for trainer Mike Maker.
• On Sept. 28, Tonal Impact again rallied from way back to win a $30,000 claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs, prevailing by half a length for trainer Chris Hartman.
• On Nov. 23, Tonal Impact rallied from last place to nab a $40,000 claimer racing one mile at Churchill Downs, winning by a neck for trainer Steve Asmussen.
• On Dec. 18, Tonal Impact rallied from eight lengths behind to trounce a $50,000 starter allowance racing 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct, winning by 4 3/4 lengths for trainer Linda Rice.

Tonal Impact’s most recent victory produced a career-best 96 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure in Thursday’s field. He’s remaining in the Rice barn and retains the services of jockey Kendrick Carmouche (a 23% winner teaming up with Rice over the last two months), so all signs suggest Tonal Impact is sitting on a fifth consecutive victory.

Turfway Park, Race 8: $4,843 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

The Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park continues to build. After no one hit Wednesday’s offering of the $1 wager, the prize pool for Thursday is up to $4,843.

The Super High 5 is available to play in Race 8, a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. There are many viable contenders in the entries, but keying #9 Miss Lizzy (5-2) on top seems like a sound strategy. The Doug O’Neill trainee ran well in her debut over this track, distance, and class level on Dec. 7, rallying from midfield to lead in midstretch before flattening out to finish second behind next-out Gowell S. winner Liliesformillie.

That effort produced a 77 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Thursday’s field. Miss Lizzy is adding Lasix and should be tough to beat while sticking to the same conditions as in her debut.

Good luck!