Keeler Johnson's picks and plays: Jan. 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, Jan. 6 at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Santa Anita, including horses to single in the $1,360 Pick 6 carryover at Fair Grounds.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Fair Grounds $1,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It and Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds on any day of live racing from Jan. 5-31 (excluding Jan. 21) to win your share of a daily $1,000 bonus jackpot.
• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races Friday through Sunday.

Picks and Plays

Aqueduct: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 12:20 p.m. ET)

#1 Uncorrelated (9-5) is a Chad Brown trainee debuting in the colors of Klaravich Stables. Brown/Klaravich runners who have debuted at Aqueduct over the past few years include Preakness (G1) winners Cloud Computing and Early Voting, so it’s not uncommon for Brown to unveil top-notch horses during the quiet months at Aqueduct.

A son of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Arrogate, Uncorrelated has shown some speed during morning training, most notably clocking half a mile from the Belmont Park training track starting gate in :47.63. We’ll count on Uncorrelated to take home top honors over #2 Register (8-1) and #6 Mo Than Luck (4-1).

Selections

• #1 Uncorrelated (9-5)
• #2 Register (8-1)
• #6 Mo Than Luck (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 1 with 2,6 ($20)

Santa Anita: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:30 p.m. ET)

#7 Teena Ella (3-1), a daughter of successful sire War Front out of four-time Eclipse Award winner Beholder, showed flashes of talent in her Nov. 12 debut sprinting six furlongs at Del Mar. After dueling for the lead through quick fractions of :21.92 and :44.76, Teena Ella faded to finish sixth behind next-out Starlet (G1) winner Faiza and next-out maiden winner Lily Poo.

Teena Ella has since turned in an encouraging series of workouts and is adding Lasix for her sophomore debut. She’s eligible to move forward under hot jockey Juan Hernandez, a 27% winner at Santa Anita this meet.

#3 Sweet Trouble (4-1), #4 Wudi (5-2), and #5 Doinitthehardway (3-1) can battle for the minor awards.

Selections

• #7 Teena Ella (3-1)
• #4 Wudi (5-2)
• #3 Sweet Trouble (4-1)

Wagers

• $5 Trifecta: 7 with 3,4,5 with 3,4,5 ($30)
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 3:15 p.m. ET)

Pacesetters have won 49% of six-furlong dirt sprints at Fair Grounds this meet, so we’ll throw out support behind #7 Chiefweave (5-2). The lightly raced six-year-old gelding threw down a career-best 76 Brisnet Speed rating when wiring a $12,500 maiden claimer during the fall at Louisiana Downs by 11 1/4 lengths.

Chiefweave should have every chance to steal this race on the front end, so we’ll bet him to win and play him over #4 Heartthrob Halo (5-1) and #6 War Trolley (6-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Chiefweave (5-2)
• #4 Heartthrob Halo (5-1)
• #6 War Trolley (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Chiefweave
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 4,6 ($10)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $1,360 Pick 6 carryover (3:15 p.m. ET)

The Friday card at Fair Grounds features a special treat for bettors. The $1 Pick 6 has tossed up a $1,360 non-jackpot carryover.

The sequence gets underway in Race 3, the above-mentioned $5,000 claimer in which #7 Chiefweave (5-2) offers appeal as a speed horse tackling a track and distance that plays kindly toward pacesetters. While singling a last-out maiden claiming winner squaring off against proven winners for the first time seems a little risky, it might not be the worst strategy. Friday’s Pick 6 features 47 entries (averaging 7.8 per race) and 215,040 possible outcomes before scratches; singling Chiefweave would reduce the number of possibilities down to 26,880.

However, an arguably better single can be found in Race 4, a $12,500 maiden claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile on dirt. Only seven horses have been entered, and #4 Avendore (8-5) looks formidable.

Avendore hasn’t run since July, when she showed pace-tracking speed to finish second in a $20,000 maiden claimer racing one mile at Horseshoe Indianapolis. That effort produced a 71 Brisnet Speed rating, fast enough to vie for victory while dropping down to the $12,500 maiden claiming level at Fair Grounds.

The layoff is a question mark, but Avendore is trained by Tom Amoss, a 30% winner this meet who strikes at a 21% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more. The stats suggest Avendore will be ready to fire a winning shot off the layoff.

It’s also encouraging to note Avendore will be ridden by jockey Edgar Morales, a 24% winner teaming up with Amoss over the last two months. Avendore has tactical speed and figures to sit a favorable trip in Friday’s largely paceless field, likely stalking #5 Jackie Flash (2-1) through the early going.

Avendore isn’t the most obvious single you’ll ever find, but in a competitive Pick 6, she’s worth relying on. Singling both Chiefweave and Avendore reduces the number of Pick 6 possibilities down to 3,840, a manageable number to deal with through the remaining four races.

Good luck!