Keeler Johnson's picks and plays July 10

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, July 10 at Thistledown, Presque Isle Downs, and Louisiana Downs, along with a horse to single in the $2,600 Pick 6 carryover at Finger Lakes.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Presque Isle Downs $2,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs to split an additional $2,000 jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Thistledown: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 2:20 p.m. ET)

#7 Tom’s Spirit (6-1) finished better than midfield in a pair of six-furlong sprints at Churchill Downs as a juvenile last fall. Then, after taking seven months off, he returned to finish second in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Belterra Park.

Tom’s Spirit brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to this Thistledown contest and figures to be forwardly placed while stretching out in distance, setting the stage for a competitive showing under red-hot jockey Jose Bracho, a 26% winner this meet. Throw in the fact trainer William Cowans is 3-for-3 this meet (and wins at a 24% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff), and Tom’s Spirit is a compelling choice.

At 6-1, Tom’s Spirit is worth betting to win. #10 Sicilian Style Two (9-2) and #5 Leola (3-1) can battle for a spot in the exacta.

Selections

• #7 Tom’s Spirit (6-1)
• #10 Sicilian Style Two (9-2)
• #5 Leola (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #7 Tom’s Spirit
• $5 Exacta: 7 with 5,10 ($10)
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: Allowance (six furlongs on Tapeta, 5:42 p.m. ET)

#6 Youmustbea Weasley (5-2) has cracked the trifecta in 12 of his 18 starts, all at Presque Isle Downs. He tackled this track, distance, and class level on June 7 and rallied nicely from midfield to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths.

With back-to-back 81 Brisnet Speed ratings under his belt, Youmustbea Weasley is clearly the fastest horse in Monday’s field; none of his rivals have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 78. He appears to have found the perfect spot to pick up a second career victory, so we’ll bet Youmustbea Weasley to win and key him over #2 Morning March (8-1) and #8 Uncle Jock (6-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Youmustbea Weasley (5-2)
• #2 Morning March (8-1)
• #8 Uncle Jock (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 Youmustbea Weasley
• $5 Exacta: 6 with 2,8 ($10)
  Total: $30

Louisiana Downs: Race 1: $12,500 Claiming (one mile on turf, 4:30 p.m. ET)

#4 She’s Takin Over (3-1) thrived in her turf debut at Louisiana Downs last month, rallying to win a $12,500 claimer for non-winners of two races by 1 3/4 lengths. Now she’s stepping up into a contest for non-winners of three races, but she looks ready to handle the subtle class jump for red-hot trainer Henry B. Johnson Jr., a 31% winner at Louisiana Downs this meet and a 50% winner teaming up with jockey Gerard Melancon over the last two months.

We’ll keep things simple with a straightforward win bet on She’s Takin Over.

Selections

• #4 She’s Takin Over (3-1)
• #8 Lovers Never Say (6-1)
• #5 Pseudoscience (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #4 She’s Takin Over

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $2,600 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)

The racing week at Finger Lakes gets underway on Monday with a $2,600 non-jackpot carryover available to chase in the $1 Pick 6.

You’re probably wondering what kind of sequence is on tap. Well, let’s crunch some numbers. The six races contain a total of 55 horses, averaging nearly 9.2 per race. That works out to 537,600 possible Pick 6 outcomes, so we’ll likely need at least one trustworthy single to build tickets around in order to reduce costs.

The best opportunity might come in Race 6, a one-mile and 70-yard allowance for fillies and mares who have never won two races. The eight-horse field is led by #2 Ice Love (5-2), a consistent four-year-old who has cracked the trifecta in seven of her last eight starts. That includes a runner-up finish over this track, distance, and class level on June 20.

On that occasion, Ice Love broke slowly, but rallied from seventh position to challenge for the lead in midstretch. She had every opportunity to win, but flattened out in the drive to miss victory by half a length while earning a career-best 75 Brisnet Speed rating.

That was a fine try, but does it guarantee Ice Love will win in her second start over this configuration? Not necessarily. Ice Love has developed a tendency to rally from far back, placing her at a tactical disadvantage against rivals with superior early speed. Furthermore, her 13-1-2-4 lifetime record indicates she’s often content to settle for a minor award rather than vie for victory.

That’s why we’re going to try to beat Ice Love with #5 Danseur d’Oro (3-1). The three-year-old filly has been competing against New York-bred competition at Aqueduct and Belmont Park, most notably employing pace-tracking tactics to smash a seven-furlong maiden special weight on May 21 at Belmont by 6 3/4 lengths.

Danseur d’Oro subsequently misfired in a seven-furlong allowance at Belmont, but she figures to find the competition at Finger Lakes a bit easier. She’s posted Brisnet Speed ratings in the 77-86 range in four of her seven starts, so she’s already faster than Ice Love on paper. Throw in the fact Danseur d’Oro regularly shows early speed, and she has every opportunity to get the jump on Ice Love and spring a mild upset victory. For all these reasons, we’ll single Danseur d’Oro in the Pick 6.

Good luck!