Keeler Johnson's picks and plays July 3

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, July 3 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Belmont Park, and Presque Isle Downs, along with horses to play in carryovers at Finger Lakes and Louisiana Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Assiniboia Downs to split an additional $1,000 jackpot.
• Presque Isle Downs $2,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs to split an additional $2,000 jackpot.
• Los Alamitos $1,000 Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Los Alamitos to compete for your share of a $1,000 daily jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 2:50 p.m. ET)

Since 2018, high-percentage trainer Brad Cox has compiled a strong 38-11-9-4 (29%) record debuting juveniles on turf at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Throw in the fact Cox has gone 24-9-5-3 (38%) during the current Horseshoe Indianapolis meet, and #7 Because the Night (5-2) looks tough to beat while debuting in this two-turn turf contest.

Because the Night has put together an encouraging series of half-mile workouts and is slated to be ridden by Marcelino Pedroza Jr., who has gone 6-for-11 (55%) teaming up with Cox over the last two months. We won’t get too creative here; we’ll simply place a large win bet on Because the Night and call it a day.

Selections

• #7 Because the Night (5-2)
• #1 Legal Titan (6-1)
• #4 Value Engineer (4-1)

Wagers

• $40 to win on #7 Because the Night

Belmont Park: Race 8: Hudson Valley S. (one mile on turf, 4:48 p.m. ET)

#3 Somelikeithotbrown (8-1) has lost four straight races and finished last of seven in the Kingston S. at Belmont last month, his 2023 debut. But on his best day, the son of Big Brown is a formidable talent; he’s won four graded stakes through the years and has placed a couple of times at the Grade 1 level.

Somelikeithotbrown won the WinStar Mint Million (G3) at Kentucky Downs as recently as last summer and has trained sharply since the Kingston, so it’s not a stretch to think this Mike Maker trainee can return to peak form while putting blinkers back on, which is a 26% winning move for Maker. At 8-1, Somelikeithotbrown is worth betting to win and playing over #4 Jerry the Nipper (5-2) and #2 Dakota Gold (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Somelikeithotbrown (8-1)
• #4 Jerry the Nipper (5-2)
• #2 Dakota Gold (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Somelikeithotbrown
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 2,4 ($10)
  Total: $30

Presque Isle Downs: Race 7: Karl Boyes S. (six furlongs on Tapeta, 4:38 p.m. ET)

#2 Tape to Tape (3-1) has won six of his eight starts since transferring to the care of high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli, a 35% winner this year and a 38% winner in ungraded stakes. Rivelli has gone 4-for-5 (80%) at Presque Isle this meet, and Tape to Tape looks ready to keep that momentum going.

Tape to Tape has lots of speed and enters off a gate-to-wire victory in the Ed Skinner S. at Prairie Meadows. He also wired an allowance optional claimer over the Tapeta track at Gulfstream Park during the winter, so switching from dirt to Tapeta at Presque Isle shouldn’t be a concern.

We’ll bet Tape to Tape over stablemate #5 Nobals (5-2) in a cold exacta.

Selections

• #2 Tape to Tape (3-1)
• #5 Nobals (5-2)
• #7 Closethegame Sugar (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 2 with 5

Carryover Watch

Finger Lakes: Race 3: $7,391 Pick 6 carryover (2:13 p.m. ET)

The Monday card at Finger Lakes brings a $7,391 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The opening leg of the sequence is Race 3, an $11,000 claimer for fillies and mares who have never won three races. The distance is 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, a configuration that has produced 42% gate-to-wire winners this meet.

Speed is clearly dominant over this short distance, which points to #4 Small Pebbles (5-2) as the horse to beat while facing only five rivals. Small Pebbles has set, pressed, or tracked the pace in all eight of her starts, including when wiring the six-furlong Shesastonecoldfox S. at Finger Lakes last fall.

Small Pabbles has regressed in her last couple of starts against allowance competition at Finger Lakes, so dropping into an $11,000 claimer might be the recipe for success. She seems likely to secure the lead on Monday, setting the stage for victory as a Pick 6 single.

Louisiana Downs: Race 7: $2,076 Super High 5 carryover (7:18 p.m. ET)

The closing race on Monday at Louisiana Downs is a one-mile turf allowance for Louisiana-breds featuring a $2,076 carryover in the 50-cent Super High 5. It’s a competitive contest with 11 entries and 55,440 possible Super High 5 outcomes before scratches, so anyone who cashes a winning ticket should catch a decent payoff.

The slim morning line favorite is #8 Oneforvivi (7-2), who exits a seventh-place finish in a non-state-restricted grass allowance at Evangeline Downs. The four-year-old gelding had previously cracked the trifecta in a pair of Louisiana-bred allowances at Fair Grounds, and last fall he won (via disqualification) a non-state-restricted $12,500 claimer racing one mile over the Louisiana Downs lawn.

But is Oneforvivi’s form any better than that of #4 Callinginthenight (8-1), who offers more than twice the price on the morning line? Callinginthenight was beaten less than one length in a non-state-restricted $12,500 claimer over this course on June 3, his first run since the middle of February. Trainer Andrew Cascio wins at a lofty 29% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, and it’s worth noting Callinginthenight beat Oneforvivi in a Louisiana-bred $12,500 claimer racing one mile at Louisiana Downs last summer.

Whereas Oneforvivi’s last five Brisnet Speed ratings are 72, 71, 72, 71, and 71, Callinginthenight’s last seven numbers are 71, 73, 73, 72, 73, 71, and 70—similar, and even slightly better. The takeaway? Callinginthenight is a live longshot with a strong chance to crack the top five and quite possibly visit the winner’s circle on Monday.

Good luck!