Keeler Johnson's picks and plays July 31

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, July 31 at Ellis Park and Thistledown, along with a horse to play in a pair of non-jackpot carryovers at Louisiana Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Presque Isle Downs $2,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs to win your share of an additional $2,000 jackpot.
• Assiniboia Downs $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Assiniboia Downs to win your share of an additional $1,000 jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Ellis Park: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 2:45 p.m. ET)

Since 2018, trainer Brad Cox has compiled a sharp 9-for-29 (31%) record debuting juveniles in turf routes at Ellis Park. This bodes well for #8 Pure Poetry (5-2), a stoutly bred son of Quality Road out of the Medaglia d’Oro mare Dickinson. Pure Poetry is a full-brother to American Derby winner Wadsworth, so he has the pedigree to shine running long on turf.

Pure Poetry enters off a few five-furlong workouts at Churchill Downs and is slated to be ridden by hot jockey Gerardo Corrales, who has gone 4-for-7 (57%) teaming up with Cox over the last two months. Let’s bet Pure Poetry to win and key him over #3 Casper (5-1) and #10 Brie’s Mission (8-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Pure Poetry (5-2)
• #3 Casper (5-1)
• #10 Brie’s Mission (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Pure Poetry
• $5 Exacta: 8 with 3,10 ($10)
  Total: $30

Thistledown: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 2:50 p.m. ET)

#1 Atilano (5-2) has cracked the trifecta in three of his four starts against maiden special weight competition at Thistledown. He was especially sharp in a six-furlong dash on July 11, tracking a quick pace before staying on to finish second with a career-best 81 Brisnet Speed rating.

Since Atilano’s key rival, #2 Majestic Flag (2-1), has never run shorter than one mile before, we’ll favor Majestic Flag’s sprinting speed and key him on top of a cold exacta.

Selections

• #1 Atilano (5-2)
• #2 Majestic Flag (2-1)
• #4 Motown Collection (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 1 with 2

Ellis Park: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 3:18 p.m. ET)

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas isn’t known for saddling ready-to-win first-time starters, but his stable is heating up with such runners as of late, and since 2021 he’s gone 3-for-18 (17%) debuting juveniles in dirt sprints at Ellis Park.

This stamps #9 Our Keepsake (12-1) as an intriguing longshot in this six-furlong maiden dash for two-year-old fillies. The daughter of early-maturing sprinter Cinco Charlie is bred for speed and recently clocked a fast half-mile at Churchill Downs in :48.

Let’s bet Our Keepsake to win and play her in the exacta with logical favorite #6 Musical Diva (5-2), a fast-working filly from the barn of red-hot trainer Brad Cox.

Selections

• #9 Our Keepsake (12-1)
• #6 Musical Diva (5-2)
• #2 Miss Escapade (9-2)

Wagers

• $15 to win on #9 Our Keepsake
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 9
• $5 Exacta: 9 with 6
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Louisiana Downs: Race 4: $1,954 Pick 5 carryover (6:29 p.m. ET)
Louisiana Downs: Race 8: $308 Super High 5 carryover (8:21 p.m. ET)

Fans of non-jackpot carryovers will have two opportunities to chase their preferred prize pools on Monday at Louisiana Downs. The 50-cent Pick 5 has tossed up a $1,954 carryover, while the 50-cent Super High 5 has tossed up a smaller (but still value-adding) $308 carryover.

Bettors who want to win a share of both carryovers will have to decipher Race 8, the final leg of the Pick 5 and the race in which the Super High 5 prize pool is up for grabs. Race 8 is a $15,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares racing 7 1/2 furlongs on turf, and with 11 entries (including one also-eligible entrant), it seems at first glance like a tricky race to handicap.

But dig a little deeper, and morning line favorite #9 No Mas Tequila (2-1) starts to look like a standout. The six-year-old mare rarely misses the trifecta and has been a force to reckon with in stakes for Texas-breds, accumulating a quartet of stakes victories during her 2022 campaign.

No Mas Tequila is 0-for-5 this year, but three of those defeats were top-three finishes in stakes, and the Brisnet Speed ratings she’s been posting (in the 75-87 range) are right in line with her 2022 numbers. And speaking of Brisnet Speed ratings, No Mas Tequila has posted numbers of 81 or higher in eight of her last 10 starts, a significant achievement since her rivals at Louisiana Downs have largely struggled to crack the 80 plateau in recent starts.

In other words, tackling a $15,000 allowance optional claimer at Louisiana Downs should be a perfect fit for No Mas Tequila. Hot trainer Karen Jacks has gone 5-for-21 (24%) at Louisiana Downs this meet, and jockey Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez has gone 4-for-8 (50%) teaming up with Jacks over the last two months, so No Mas Tequila has some positive trainer and jockey stats in her corner for good measure.

Taking all of these factors together, we view No Mas Tequila as a mare to single in the Pick 5 and key on top in the Super High 5.

Good luck!