Keeler Johnson's picks and plays July 7

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares $75 worth of picks and plays for Thursday, July 7 at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Presque Isle Downs, and Canterbury Park, including a trio of exactas.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Canterbury Park.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 3:43 p.m. ET)

Since 2020, trainer John Ortiz has compiled a 5-4-1-0 record debuting juveniles at Horseshoe Indianapolis. For those keeping count, that’s a stellar 80% win rate and a 100% in-the-money rate.

These powerful stats point toward Ortiz’s unraced juvenile #4 Aaron’s Conquest (3-1) as a key threat to win this maiden dash for Indiana-bred juveniles. Aaron’s Conquest has put together an encouraging work tab on the Kentucky circuit, and Ortiz has been hot at Horseshoe Indianapolis, going 3-for-10 (30%) to start the meet.

In addition to a large win bet on Aaron’s Conquest, we’ll key him over #6 Sir Ronaldo (7-2) in the exacta.

• $25 to win on #4 Aaron’s Conquest
• $10 Exacta: 4 with 6
  Total: $35

Presque Isle Downs: Race 6: Allowance (one mile on Tapeta, 3:45 p.m. ET)

#5 Lovely Ever After (2-1) has shown a clear affinity for Tapeta since arriving at Presque Isle Downs. After rallying to finish second in a one-mile maiden special weight on May 25, Lovely Ever After obliterated a one-mile and 70-yard heat over the same class level on June 13, settling in midpack before rallying to trounce next-out winner #3 One More Kelly (5-2) by 4 3/4 lengths.

Lovely Ever After and One More Kelly appear to have more upside than their heavily raced rivals, so we’ll count on them to run 1-2 again on Thursday.

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 3

Canterbury Park: Race 6: Allowance (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 8:40 p.m. ET)

#6 Lady Clare (7-2) regularly posts competitive Brisnet Speed ratings and threw down a lofty 81 (by far the highest figure in Thursday’s field) when smashing a $7,500 claimer over the Canterbury Park main track by 10 1/4 lengths last month.

Switching to turf shouldn’t be a big issue for Lady Clare, who broke her maiden over the Fair Grounds lawn earlier this year. I’m optimistic she’s progressing in the right direction and can spring a mild surprise on Thursday.

Taking advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Lady Clare. Then we’ll box her in the exacta with logical morning line favorite #5 Start Singing (5-2).

• $10 to win on #6 Lady Clare
• $5 Exacta box: 5,6 ($10)
  Total: $20

Good luck!