Keeler Johnson's picks and plays June 12

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, June 12 at Thistledown and Prairie Meadows, along with horses to single in a pair of Pick 5 carryovers at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Assiniboia Downs to split an additional $1,000 jackpot.
• Presque Isle Downs $2,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs to split an additional $2,000 jackpot.
• Woodbine Mohawk Let 8 Ride: Place $10 win bets at Woodbine Mohawk over three days of racing for a chance to win a share of a $5,000 jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Thistledown: Race 2: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (5 1/2 furlongs, 1:20 p.m. ET)

In a race that has come up weak on paper, #3 Agnello City (9-2) is worth supporting. The three-year-old gelding has only run once, debuting with a sixth-place finish in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Thistledown.

Trainer Jeffrey Skerrett wins at a 50% rate with horses descending from maiden special weight to maiden claiming company, and hot jockey Luis Rivera (a 21% winner this meet) is named to ride, so Agnello City has strong connections in his corner. We’ll bet him to win and key him over #4 Something On Tap (5-2) and #5 My Buddy Micah (2-1) in the exacta.

Selections

• #3 Agnello City (9-2)
• #4 Something On Tap (5-2)
• #5 My Buddy Micah (2-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Agnello City
• $5 Exacta: 3 with 4,5 ($10)
  Total: $30

Thistledown: Race 5: $7,500 Claiming (six furlongs, 2:50 p.m. ET)

#6 Immaculate Heart (3-1) was tons the best in a $5,000 claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs at Thistledown last month, rallying from just off the pace to dominate by 6 3/4 lengths. That marked her second start for high-percentage trainer Valerie Shanyfelt and her second start back from a layoff, so Immaculate Heart is eligible to produce another strong run even while stepping up to the $7,500 claiming level. Take note, Shanyfelt wins at a 23% rate with horses running for the third time following a layoff.

In addition to a win bet on Immaculate Heart, we’ll play her over #2 Magicgirl (9-2) and #4 Miracle Drug (7-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #6 Immaculate Heart (3-1)
• #2 Magicgirl (9-2)
• #4 Miracle Drug (7-2)

Wagers

• $18 to win on #6 Immaculate Heart
• $6 Exacta: 6 with 2,4 ($12)
  Total: $30

Prairie Meadows: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs, 5:00 p.m. ET)

#5 Sincerely Mine (2-1) looks ready to win this maiden sprint for Iowa-bred juveniles. Conditioned by hot trainer Jon Arnett (a 26% winner this meet), Sincerely Mine recently clocked a bullet half-mile from the Prairie Meadows starting gate in :48 4/5 and is slated to be ridden by hot jockey Alex Birzer, a 30% winner this meet and a 31% winner teaming up with Arnett over the last two months.

#1 Mc Cougar (5-2), coming off a bullet three-furlong workout at Prairie Meadows, can complete the exacta.

Selections

• #5 Sincerely Mine (2-1)
• #1 Mc Cougar (5-2)
• #6 Nice One Julio (6-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #5 Sincerely Mine
• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $2,555 Pick 5 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)
Presque Isle Downs: Race 4: $2,308 Pick 5 carryover (4:21 p.m. ET)

Presque Isle Downs is starting the new week on a high note with a pair of non-jackpot carryovers. The 50-cent Early Pick 5 has tossed up a prize pool worth $2,555, while the carryover for the 50-cent Late Pick 5 stands at $2,308. Together, the two sequences encompass every race on the eight-race card, overlapping in Race 4 and Race 5.

One of the most intriguing events of the day is Race 3, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies sprinting 4 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. The seven-horse field contains a quintet of first-time starters, including the fast-working fillies #3 She’s Fire (6-1) and #5 Spending Cuts (3-1).

But if you want to keep the stats on your side, consider singling #4 Foxxy Cleopatra (7-2) at a nice price. As a daughter of Munnings (who sires 16% winners from first-time starters), Foxxy Cleopatra has the pedigree to succeed from an early age. Even better, trainer Larry Rivelli has gone 2-for-2 at Presque Isle this meet and 1-for-2 debuting juveniles over this track last year. Throw in Presque Isle’s leading jockey Pablo Morales (a 28% winner this meet), and Foxxy Cleopatra appears primed for a winning debut.

Another possible single can be found in Race 5, a $6,250 claimer for horses who have never won three races. Many of the entrants in this one-mile and 70-yard Tapeta contest are exiting races at this class level or lower, but one notable exception is #10 Strasbourg (3-1). Runner-up in a $6,250 claimer over the Gulfstream Park dirt track three starts back, Strasbourg recently made his Tapeta debut in a $12,500 claimer at Presque Isle, finishing fifth after carving out the pace.

There isn’t much speed in Monday’s field, so Strasbourg has every chance to secure an easy lead. Doing so while dropping down to the $6,250 claiming level can send Strasbourg to the winner’s circle, especially since the Brisnet Speed rating he posted three starts back at Gulfstream (85) exceeds the par winning number for Monday’s conditions by a full 10 points.

Good luck!