Keeler Johnson's picks and plays June 19

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, June 19 at Thistledown and Louisiana Downs, including horses to support in the $372 Super High 5 carryover at Louisiana Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Assiniboia Downs to split an additional $1,000 jackpot.
• Presque Isle Downs $2,000 Late Pick 5 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 5 at Presque Isle Downs to split an additional $2,000 jackpot.

Picks and Plays

Thistledown: Race 3: $16,000 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile, 1:50 p.m. ET)

#5 Red Hot Lass (8-5) is in red-hot form, having cracked the exacta in each of her last six starts while winning five times. She was especially dominant in a contest over this track, distance, and class level on May 31, leading all the way to obliterate her rivals by 18 lengths.

Red Hot Lass owns Brisnet Speed ratings of 89, 83, 94, 82, and 94 from her last five starts, significant numbers since none of her Monday rivals have posted a rating higher than 84. We’ll count on Red Hot Lass to lead the way home over #6 Dunvegan Doll (3-1), playing a cold exacta accordingly.

Selections

• #5 Red Hot Lass (8-5)
• #6 Dunvegan Doll (3-1)
• #3 Prospective Forum (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 5 with 6

Thistledown: Race 7: Allowance (one mile, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#3 Sammy’s Smile (6-1) was compromised by a pedestrian pace when finishing fifth behind #2 Mr Loooch (5-2) and #5 Derby Included (4-1) in a one-mile allowance over this track on June 1. That marked Sammy’s Smile’s first run of the season, and he gained ground down the homestretch to finish only 4 1/2 lengths behind the winner.

Sammy’s Smile has placed in four stakes through the years, including a couple at Thistledown, and he’s crossed the wire first in multiple one-mile contests over this track. If he gets a sharper pace to chase in his second start of the season, Sammy’s Smile can vie for victory under hot jockey Jose Bracho, who has gone 6-for-22 (27%) at Thistledown this meet.

#4 Dark Vader (9-5) can snatch second place over Mr Loooch.

Selections

• #3 Sammy’s Smile (6-1)
• #4 Dark Vader (9-5)
• #2 Mr Loooch (5-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #3 Sammy’s Smile
• $10 Exacta: 3 with 4
  Total: $30

Louisiana Downs: Race 5: $7,500 Starter Allowance (one mile on turf, 4:57 p.m. ET)

#2 More Ice (5-2) is an exacta-cracking machine, having finished first or second in each of his last nine starts. All of those runs have come over the Louisiana Downs turf course, and the seven-year-old gelding enters Monday’s contest off back-to-back victories in $7,500 and $12,500 claimers.

Tackling a $7,500 starter allowance over his favorite course should make More Ice difficult to beat, so we’ll bet him to win and key him over #7 Men of Kyle (5-1) and #1 Tio Blas (9-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #2 More Ice (5-2)
• #7 Men of Kyle (5-1)
• #1 Tio Blas (9-2)

Wagers

• $16 to win on #2 More Ice (5-2)
• $7 Exacta: 2 with 1,7 ($14)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Louisiana Downs: Race 8: $372 Super High 5 carryover (6:21 p.m. ET)

There isn’t much on the table this Monday as far as non-jackpot carryovers are concerned. But Louisiana Downs does have one such prize pool available: a $372 carryover in the 50-cent Super High 5.

It’s not a huge pot, but it does add value to the wager, and small pools can occasionally offer surprisingly good outcomes. This particular carryover was generated when no one assembled a winning Super High 5 ticket on Sunday; as it turns out, no one assembled the top four finishers or even the top three finishers either, so bettors who correctly selected the top two finishers in the Super High 5 picked up a $123.90 consolation payoff. Not half bad for a 50-cent wager, considering the $1 exacta paid $128.00.

Monday’s Super High 5 is available to play in Race 8, a $12,500 maiden claimer taking place over 7 1/2 furlongs on turf. With 14 entries, there are 240,240 possible Super High 5 outcomes, though two of the entrants are on the also-eligible list. Assuming the race goes off with its 12-horse maximum, bettors will have to sort through 95,040 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

Any way you slice it, that’s a lot of possibilities. And the race gets even tougher to analyze when you consider how only four of the entrants have ever recorded a top-three finish on turf.

Among the horses who have placed on turf, #12 Moneystrike (10-1) might be the best. The four-year-old gelding set the pace in a 7 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over this course last month, ultimately settling for second place by half a length. That marked a sharp step forward off his dirt form, so it’s possible Moneystrike has found a new home on grass.

But while Monestrike’s 10-1 morning line odds are enticing, #4 El Gemar (5-1) at half the price might be the better play. The son of Malibu Moon has spent nine of his 10 starts competing against tougher competition on dirt at Oaklawn Park, most recently coming home second by less than one length in a $20,000-$12,500 maiden claimer.

El Gemar’s lone start away from Oaklawn came at Churchill Downs in June 2022, when he finished 11th in a maiden special weight racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. Some bettors might look at this defeat and conclude El Gemar doesn’t care for turf, but it’s just as likely the competition was too fierce. Tackling a $12,500 maiden claimer over the Louisiana Downs lawn should be a much easier task, and it’s worth noting trainer Martin Villafranco has been on fire at Louisiana Downs this meet, going 6-for-27 (22%).

If we key Gemar on top and emphasize Moneystrike underneath, we should have a decent shot to catch a nice Super High 5 payoff.

Good luck!