Keeler Johnson's picks and plays March 1

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Wednesday, March 1 at Tampa Bay Downs and Fair Grounds, along with a horse to single in the $3,289 Pick 5 carryover at Penn National.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winning Wednesdays: Get a 25% boost on your winning win wagers (excluding stake amount; maximum $50 bonus per day) when you bet Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park on Wednesdays.

Picks and Plays

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (6 1/2 furlongs, 2:28 p.m. ET)

#2 The Big Calico (5-1) ran strongly over this track, distance, and class level on Feb. 11, dueling for the lead through quick fractions before staying on to finish second. He actually finished one length clear of the rallying #8 Jurkovec (5-2), the morning line favorite in Wednesday’s contest.

Trainer Nestor Cascallares wins at a 25% rate with horses running for the second time under his care, an angle that applies to The Big Calico. If The Big Calico shakes loose on an easier lead this time around, he can maintain his supremacy over Jurkovec and sprint all the way to the winner’s circle at a nice price.

We’ll take advantage of the Winning Wednesdays promotion and place a $20 win bet on The Big Calico, then play him over Jurkovec in an exacta for good measure.

Selections

• #2 The Big Calico (5-1)
• #8 Jurkovec (5-2)
• #4 Jawbreak (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 The Big Calico
• $10 Exacta: 2 with 8
  Total: $30

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 6: $12,500 Starter Optional Claiming (seven furlongs, 2:58 p.m. ET)

#5 Alizee (2-1) has won four of her last five starts, including three over this track and class level. Her lone defeat came at the hands of #7 Pretty Rachel (7-2), but Alizee has beaten Pretty Rachel twice since December, and Alizee’s form has generally been trending in a better direction than that of Pretty Rachel.

Let’s bet Alizee over Pretty Rachel and the improving #1 Thunder Buggy (4-1) in exacta and trifecta tickets.

Selections

• #5 Alizee (2-1)
• #7 Pretty Rachel (7-2)
• #1 Thunder Buggy (4-1)

Wagers

• $10 Exacta: 5 with 1,7 ($20)
• $5 Trifecta: 5 with 1,7 with 1,7 ($10)
  Total: $30

Fair Grounds: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 5:15 p.m. ET)

#4 The Princess Says (8-1) looks ready to challenge on debut for hot trainer Chris Hartman, a 27% winner at Fair Grounds this meet. Sire Collected is responsible for a respectable 10% winners from first-time starters, and The Princess Says worked a bullet three furlongs from the Fair Grounds starting gate in :35 4/5 earlier this month, suggesting she has some speed.

Throw in the presence of jockey Mitchell Murrill (a 40% winner teaming up with trainer Chris Hartman over the last two months), and The Princess Says is worth betting to win at 8-1.

Selections

• #4 The Princess Says (8-1)
• #3 Army Kitten (4-1)
• #1 L J’s Emma (5-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #4 The Princess Says

Carryover Watch

Penn National, Race 3: $3,289 Pick 5 carryover (6:58 p.m. ET)

Want to chase a non-jackpot carryover? Penn National is ready to oblige. Wednesday’s $1 Pick 5 boasts a $3,289 carryover, adding value to a reasonably straightforward sequence featuring 37 entries (averaging 7.4 per race) and 20,736 possible outcomes before scratches.

The best chance for a single may come in Race 4, a $4,000 claimer for older horses who haven’t won a race since Sept. 1. A field of eight is slated to race one mile and 70 yards on dirt, so bettors willing to single morning line favorite #7 Miami Mumbles (8-5) can reduce the number of Pick 5 possibilities across the remaining four races down to only 2,592.

Miami Mumbles brings solid form to the table. He compiled a 7-2-0-2 record in 2022, highlighted by a couple of wins against $10,000 claiming competition at Penn National. Those victories produced sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 79 and 78, higher than the majority of recent numbers posted by Miami Mumbles’ Wednesday rivals.

Miami Mumbles has only run once since last June, but his most recent race suggests he’s still in good form. On Feb. 2, he ran third in an $8,000 claimer for non-winners of a race since Nov. 2, beaten 2 1/2 lengths while earning a 79 Brisnet Speed rating.

Descending to the $4,000 level should make Miami Mumbles tough to beat for trainer Robert Johnston, who wins at a 26% rate with horses dropping multiple levels down the class ladder. Johnston also wins at a respectable 19% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, suggesting Miami Mumbles has room for improvement on Wednesday.

The only horse who has recently run faster than Miami Mumbles is #1 Drone Swarm (5-1), who posted an 81 Brisnet Speed rating when finishing fourth in an $8,000 claimer at Parx Racing on Feb. 14. But Drone Swarm regressed to a 66 in a $5,000 claimer six days later, and he hasn’t finished better than third in his last dozen starts, suggesting Miami Mumbles is the more reliable performer and a viable Pick 5 single.

Good luck!