Keeler Johnson's picks and plays March 10

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Friday, March 10 at Tampa Bay Downs, Gulfstream Park, and Fair Grounds, along with horses to play in Super High 5 carryovers at Turfway and Tampa Bay Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Winter Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races Friday through Sunday.

Picks and Plays

Tampa Bay Downs: Race 2: $12,500 Starter Optional Claiming (1 1/16 miles, 12:50 p.m. ET)

#3 Tiz Herself (3-5) has dominated her last two starts over this track and distance, beating #2 Sneaky Cheeky (7-2) by six lengths on Jan. 27 and #1 Pretty Rachel (8-1) by 9 1/4 lengths on Feb. 19. Those runaway victories produced back-to-back 84 Brisnet Speed ratings, stamping Tiz Herself as the mare to beat on Friday.

Let’s bet Tiz Herself over Sneaky Cheeky and Pretty Rachel in cold exacta and trifecta tickets.

Selections

• #3 Tiz Herself (3-5)
• #2 Sneaky Cheeky (7-2)
• #1 Pretty Rachel (8-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 3 with 2
• $10 Trifecta: 3 with 2 with 1
  Total: $30

Gulfstream Park: Race 8: $75,000 Allowance Optional Claiming (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 4:07 p.m. ET)

#6 Slipstream (7-2) is a pretty good horse on his best day. Winner of the 2021 Futurity (G3) sprinting six furlongs at Belmont Park, Slipstream started only twice in 2022, defeating Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G2) winner Twilight Gleaming in Keeneland’s 5 1/2-furlong Palisades S. before finishing 17th in the Commonwealth Cup (G1) at Royal Ascot.

Slipstream broke his maiden over seven furlongs and finished a decent sixth in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) racing one mile, so tackling 7 1/2 furlongs in Friday’s contest shouldn’t be a major obstacle. We’ll try betting Slipstream to win and playing him in the exacta with European raider #2 Dr Zempf (3-1), who is making his first stateside start for trainer Chad Brown.

Selections

• #6 Slipstream (7-2)
• #2 Dr Zempf (3-1)
• #8 Safe Conduct (8-1)

Wagers

• $10 to win on #6 Slipstream
• $4 Exacta: 6 with 2
• $6 Exacta: 2 with 6
  Total: $20

Fair Grounds: Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs, 4:15 p.m. ET)

#5 El Deal Me Aces (3-1) is 2-for-2 sprinting six furlongs at Fair Grounds. After employing pace-tracking tactics to win a maiden special weight by 1 1/4 lengths, El Deal Me Aces ran down a runaway leader to nab an allowance by 1 3/4 lengths.

In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, El Deal Me Aces has run just as fast as morning line favorite #6 Marks Promise (5-2), who has produced his best races over the bullring oval at Delta Downs. With his hot form and proven affinity for Fair Grounds, El Deal Me Aces is an appealing choice to play on top of Marks Promise, #3 Not On Herb (4-1), and #1 Copter (5-1) in exacta and trifecta wagers.

Selections

• #5 El Deal Me Aces (3-1)
• #6 Marks Promise (5-2)
• #3 Not On Herb (4-1)

Wagers

• $5 Exacta: 5 with 1,3,6 ($15)
• $2.50 Trifecta: 5 with 1,3,6 with 1,3,6 ($15)
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 1: $4,043 Super High 5 carryover (12:20 p.m. ET)

If you want to win a share of the $4,043 Super High 5 carryover up for grabs in the Friday opener at Tampa Bay Downs, you had best come prepared for a challenge. Race 1 is a $10,000 maiden claimer for older horses sprinting seven furlongs on dirt, but none of the seven experienced runners are obvious choices to take home top honors. Not even morning line favorite #6 Genesis One (9-5), who finished fifth over this track, distance, and class level on Jan. 18.

So perhaps we should give a long look to the first-time starter #1 Timely Prospect (4-1), who has several Brisnet statistics in his favor. Sire Prospective is responsible for 14% debut winners. Damsire Closing Argument sires an even better 14% winners from first-time starters. And trainer Anthony Granitz strikes at a lofty 22% rate with debuting runners.

In a field that hasn’t come up overly deep on paper, Timely Prospect is worth betting on top in the Super High 5.